Saints vs Panthers Odds, Prediction
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -115 | 39 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -105 | 39 -110o / -110u | +205 |
Saints vs. Panthers odds have shifted on Sunday morning, with New Orleans going from a 6-point favorite down to 5.
It’s a queasy feeling backing the Panthers to cover for my NFL pick in this game, but I’d feel even worse taking the Saints, who have an injury report littered with key players (Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed and more), in this spot.
The historical trends are so overwhelming that I’m mainly basing my Saints vs. Panthers prediction on New Orleans’ struggles in similar situations over a significant sample size. With that in mind, let’s delve into the boatload of reasons I’m backing Carolina in this NFC South showdown.
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Saints vs. Panthers Pick
Saints vs. Panthers
Matchup Analysis
The Saints are ravaged by injuries, and the status of several key playmakers might not be decided until the last second.
However, I’d be fading New Orleans even if it were fully healthy after diving into Evan Abrams’ weekly primer. I’d already planned to back the Panthers, but the trends Abrams outlined greatly strengthen my conviction.
First and foremost, it’s hard to stress just how bad head coach Dennis Allen is against the spread. His 23-40-2 career mark is the third worst of any coach over the last 20 years. He’s particularly atrocious in divisional games — his 5-14-2 record ranks last among 147 coaches over the last 20 years. That winning percentage (26.3%) also ranks last among 118 coaches to coach at least 20 divisional games dating back to 1990.
It wasn’t that long ago that the Superdome was a nightmare for visiting teams. However, those days are long over as the Saints are 0-5 ATS at home this year. They’ve actually failed to cover in seven straight home games dating back to the end of last season. Additionally, they’re the worst team in the league ATS dating back to 2021 (5-15).
Derek Carr cleared concussion protocol and is expected to play, but he's also battling injuries to his ribs and throwing shoulder and doesn’t inspire much confidence in this spot.
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Carr’s been terrible as a favorite with the Saints (1-8-1 ATS). He has struggled mightily as a favorite of three or more points in his career (8-26-2), and is 1-14-1 over his last 16 games.
Furthermore, Carr struggles ATS against defenses like the Panthers, who give up 26.1 PPG. Carr is only 33-57-3 against teams who give up more than 21.0 PPG, which is the worst mark in the league over the last 20 years.
Now, about those injuries. Taysom Hill is questionable after not practicing all week with foot/left hand injuries. The Saints may also be down to their fourth and fifth receivers. Chris Olave (illness) is questionable after missing the last two practices and fellow wideout Rashid Shaheed (thigh) is questionable after missing the last two weeks of practice. Michael Thomas (knee) was previously placed on injured reserve.
Meanwhile, a New Orleans defense that’s scuffled lately has also been hit hard by injuries. The Saints have given up the fourth-most points over the last three weeks (28.0) and have lost Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Maye and Malcolm Roach over the last two weeks.
Saints vs. Panthers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Again, Allen is the worst head coach ATS in divisional games over the last 33 years. With that in mind, I’ll happily fade the Saints in all three games they have remaining against the NFC South this season.
The tricky part here might be knowing when to pounce. The line could move in either direction once we gain clarity on a number of injuries. I took the Panthers +5.5 heading into the weekend, but if they end up getting more points, I'll likely sprinkle a little more on it.
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