Bears vs Saints Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Bears vs. Saints odds have New Orleans installed as a big home favorite, laying 9.5 points to Chicago at bet365. That moved overnight into Sunday, as it was 8.5 on Saturday night.
Derek Carr is coming off his best game of the season in a win over the Colts. Now, he'll start opposite Tyson Bagent and D.J. Moore, who have proven capable of getting a win together. My Bears vs. Saints prediction is backing both offenses to thrive.
Let's break down the game and get to my Bears vs. Saints prediction below.
Bears vs. Saints
Matchup Analysis
The Saints lit up the Colts last week, scoring 38 points and averaging 7.7 yards per play.
It was certainly encouraging to finally see Derek Carr play well, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into the performance given the injuries to the Colts' secondary. However, that defense isn't much better than what Carr will face this week against the Bears.
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Chicago's defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 31st in pass efficiency. The Bears actually rank in the top five in rush EPA/play and rushing success rate allowed.
If the Saints are cognizant of these splits and throw on early downs, they should have tons of success. The Bears don't have the corners to match up with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and budding star Rashid Shaheed. The Bears also don't get pressure on the quarterback, so Carr should have all day to find Shaheed and Olave deep.
As long as the Saints make an effort to up their pass rate, we should expect their offense to have a ton of success.
Bet Chicago vs. New Orleans at FanDuel
On the opposite side of the ball, I expect the Bears to struggle to run.
New Orleans has a top-10 run defense and will certainly load up the box and force Tyson Bagent to throw. In my opinion, Bagent has looked fine and has made some impressive throws. If the Bears trust him to make plays, I think they can put up some points.
It’s a small sample size of 92 snaps, but Bagent ranks 11th in the NFL in quarterback success rate (50%). He's a capable backup at worst, and I think his ability to use his legs will be useful here.
The Saints defense is a bit overrated and their data is skewed from playing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Trevor Lawrence is the only above-average quarterback the Saints have played, and he lit them up on Thursday Night Football.
Like the Saints, I expect the Bears offense to have some success.
Bears vs. Saints
Betting Picks & Predictions
I lean toward the over as I like the outlook for both offenses.
The Saints defense is overrated and I think Bagent can do enough to help this game get over 41 points. Play this up to 42.
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