We have a two-game Saturday slate in Week 16, with some potential live betting angles in eeach game. That doesn't mean we'll be forcing a bet in each of them, but we will keep an eye open to see if any value pops up at any point.
NFL Live Betting for Week 16 Saturday Slate
Bills at Chargers: Unders in a Blowout — But Be Careful
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -108 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | -650 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -112 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | +480 |
Getting a feel for when teams take their foot off the gas has been tricky this season. In years past, we had dominant teams that would predictably ease up once they felt comfortable with a lead. It hasn't been quite as easy this year, with some wild blowouts thanks to the dominant team pouring it on.
With that said, Buffalo has "only" gone past 40 points once this year, and that was against an explosive Dolphins offense that warranted trying to get a large lead. Outside of that game, they've been fairly content to slow it down once off to a big lead, leaning more on their run game than in years past. Josh Allen's habit of throwing other teams back into the game with overly aggressive decisions probably explains that tonal shift.
That comes out in the pace numbers, where Buffalo plays slower than league average with a lead, despite an above-average situation neutral pace. As double-digit favorites against a reeling offense, they should have no issues getting out in front relatively quickly.
The Chargers are a bad defense overall, but slightly better against the run. The inverse is true for Buffalo, so both teams should limit efficiency in a game where Los Angeles is playing catch up.
Like with the early game, a big Bills lead early should also drive the pregame total of 44 up. Unlike that game, we'll be waiting for a bigger lead before making the bet. As a loose guideline, 20+ points in the first half or 14+ in the second half — with a higher total — is the target.
Keep an eye on the usual outlier situations here. though. If the Chargers are moving the ball better than the scoreboard suggests, it could be worth laying off here.
Bengals at Steelers: Under With a Bengals Lead
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 39.5 -108o / -112u | -144 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -122 | 39.5 -108o / -112u | +122 |
This is a game we wouldn't spend much time on were it part of a larger slate. One of the reasons is it's very hard to project an edge in most scenarios, with the only exception being a game that the Bengals control.
That's because Cincinnati plays well slower than league average with a lead — and most of that data was from when they had Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. Logically, you'd expect them to be even more run heavy without those two players, especially when they don't need to throw to catch up on the scoreboard. Additionally, Pittsburgh plays slower than league average when trailing, and they're also starting a backup quarterback this week.
Neither team has especially strong defensive splits, but it's worth mentioning that Cincinnati is somewhat better in pass defense by DVOA than run defense, which will also make it hard for Pittsburgh to put up points with a negative game script.
The other benefit to targeting this scenario is it should correlate well with an elevated total, provided the Bengals lead comes sometime in the first half. The pregame line is just 39, so it wouldn't take a lot to drive that number up.
We'll be looking for a scenario where Cincinnati is up at least seven with the ball, or double digits without it, AND the total has gone up from the original number. Since the edge isn't huge here, we need both things to be true before we consider a bet. With that said, we'd be comfortable taking it at almost any point in the game that fits both criteria.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application iswe're obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
