PropBetGuy will break down his favorite NFL player props every week throughout this season, and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Let's get right into his top two NFL player prop picks for today's slate of Week 1 matchups.
PropBetGuy's NFL Player Props for Sunday, Sept. 8
- Keenan Allen Longest Reception: Under 19.5 Yards (-120, DraftKings)
- Zach Ertz Longest Reception: Under 13.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Keenan Allen comes over to the Bears after 11 seasons as a member of the Chargers. The veteran slot receiver joins a stacked receiver room featuring DJ Moore and rookie Rome Odunze.
There’s always some unknowns with players in their first game on a new team. However, on a roster flush with playmakers at the skill positions, Allen’s target volume (11.5 per game last season in LA) should lessen in Chicago.
Allen is likely ticketed to serve as rookie Caleb Williams security blanket on underneath routes. Plus, coming off a heel injury that kept him out of training camp the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears limited the six-time Pro Bowlers reps out of the gate.
I have Allen’s longest reception projected at 16 yards.
He’s now on a different team, of course, but Zach Ertz only cleared this line on two of his 27 catches last season – and the overs came in games where he saw totals of eight and 10 targets.
I don’t see him coming close to that volume in Washington, and likely will cede some snaps to impressive rookie, Ben Sinnott. Ertz also averaged 1.7 YAC last year, which was 28th-lowest of 482 players who caught a pass.
At 33 years old and entering his 12th NFL season, Ertz is more of a possession receiver at this point of his career. I think we'll see him work more underneath routes with the Commanders, saving the deeper throws for the likes of Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown.
It should be a tough matchup up the middle against the Bucs defense, featuring KJ Britt, Lavonte David, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Jordan Whitehead. And I expect the Commanders to lean a bit more on their run game in quarterback Jayden Daniels first NFL game. I have Ertz’ longest completion projected around 11 yards.
