NFL Week 15 features a full 16-game slate, with the Vikings and Cowboys meeting on Sunday Night Football, and Dolphins vs. Steelers closing it out on MNF.
For my Week 15 picks, we have moneyline and total predictions, first and second half picks, and prop bets for a handful of players including Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, George Pickens, Chris Rodriguez, and more.
I also have a lookahead pick for an NFL Week 16 matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos — plus an Offensive Player of the Year prediction.
Let's get to my NFL Week 15 picks and predictions!
NFL Week 15 Predictions
Jets vs Jaguars Spread/Moneyline Picks
This is all about the numbers and trends.
I just can't make the Jaguars a 13.5-point favorite, not against the Jets, not against anyone. I wouldn't have Jacksonville even a double-digit favorite at home against any NFL team. This line was Jags -4.5 in the preseason — is Jacksonville really a full nine points better now?
The Jets offense has been better lately with Tyrod Taylor, and it's been far better on the road this season, though we may get Brady Cook making a debut rookie start at QB here.
Expect the Jets to lean extremely run-heavy as always (most in the league), and that's an interesting twist since the Jaguars' opponents pass more when facing them than against any other team.
The Jets won't do that, and that could work out okay since Jacksonville is just 19th in EPA per play against the run. New York's one relative strength is also its run defense, which helps negate the best part of Jacksonville's offense.
This game looks windy, making the run game key, and the gap isn't huge in either direction there. A heavy run game also means a shorter game and leans under an an already low total, making 13.5 points all the more valuable!
Really, this is just a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
Jacksonville has scored 25+ in five straight games. Teams like that since 2009 are just 66-93-6 ATS (41%).
The Jaguars won last week by 17+ points as 7+ point underdogs; teams like that are an ugly 67-121-3 ATS (36%) the following week since 2010. Furthermore, 17+ winners facing 17+ losers like the Jets are 81-117-4 ATS (36%).
The trends aren't kind to Jags QB Trevor Lawrence either. He's just 9-16 ATS in his career against sub-.500 teams (36%), and he's also 44% ATS as a favorite in his career.
He's only been favored by more than a touchdown twice ever and lost both times outright, and he's never been favored by double digits, let alone 13.5.
Once a moneyline hits +700 or longer, it's usually a smart idea to take a nibble. Give me Jets +13.5 and sprinkle the +700 moneyline (the Score) in case New York pulls off a stunner.
Pick: Jets +13.5; Jets Moneyline (+700)
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Bills vs Patriots First/Second Half Props
This game feels huge, although the reality is the Patriots can win the AFC East just by beating the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks of the season, regardless of this one. This is more about the race for the one-seed and, probably, the MVP.
Neither defense has been great, and both offenses are excellent but maybe not elite. New England's relative defensive strength is against the run, and that's a good match for Buffalo's power rushing attack.
The Bills can't stop the run at all, but the Patriots can't run anyway, and Buffalo's pass defense is better and matches up well.
New England's run defense has trended down with Milton Williams out for the last three games, from fourth in EPA per play on the season to 23rd and from eighth to 31st in Success Rate.
That's a big problem against Buffalo if it continues, though the Patriots come in rested after the bye and some time to get the defense back in order.
That bye week triggers a great setup for us to play both halves of this game separately.
Home underdogs coming off a bye week are 59-39-13 ATS (60%) in just the first half.
That's a great matchup for the Patriots, who have been the league's best first-half team at 10-3 ATS on the season, while the Bills are a league-worst 3-10 ATS.
New England's offense has been far better in the first half all season, and Josh McDaniels should be ready with a plan to attack Buffalo.
On the other hand, road favorites of under six points facing an opponent coming out of the bye are 33-19-2 ATS (63%) in the second half.
Josh Allen has been a second-half god in his career at a remarkable 80-40-3 ATS (67%), including 9-4 ATS this season (69%).
The best part about playing just the halves is that we don't even have to pick a winner for the game! That's great because I make this game nearly a coin flip.
I'm playing Patriots 1H -0.5 at +110 (DraftKings). I prefer that to the available -104 ML or +0.5 -120. Those angles offer us a push or even win if it's tied at the half, but it's not worth the price of admission for a 30-cent difference.
Similarly, I'll play Bills 2H -1.5 at +120 (FanDuel) rather than the -110 ML.
Both angles also work well together — if the Patriots do lead at the half, it's tough to imagine the Bills not pushing back in the second half. So play both together too, with a Patriots 1H & Bills 2H parlay at +221 (FanDuel).
We don't even need to know who wins with that one! However, if you do want to play Patriots HT / Bills FT, that would be my lean too at +490 (FanDuel). Josh Allen is 23-6-1 ATS (79%) against elite defenses allowing 20 PPG or less.
I'll play both halves separately and sprinkle both parlays as an escalator.
Pick: Patriots 1st Half -0.5; Bills 2nd Half -1.5
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Packers vs Broncos Highest Scoring Quarter Bet
This is another game I make nearly a coin flip.
It's clear the Packers offense and Denver defense are each team's better units, so that matches up well. There are some questions about the other units on each side.
Denver's offense is actually trending up, fringe in the top 10 by DVOA over the last six games, and QB Bo Nix's advanced metrics are also looking much better than they did early this season.
That Broncos offense has struggled early in games, though. It's bottom 10 by DVOA in each of the first three quarters before leaping to seventh in the fourth quarter, and the Packers offense leads the league in that 4th-quarter metric.
That matches the eye test. Both coaches play conservative football for much of the game before finally taking the training wheels off late and letting the offense do what it needs to do to get over the line.
The Packers lead the league in 4th-quarter scoring at 9.5 PPG, and the Broncos aren't far behind at 8.3 (6th). Packers games are also a league-best 10-3 to the over (77%). Give me the fourth quarter Over 11.5 (FanDuel).
Some books offer other fun 4th-quarter lines, since we'll be locked in late on this one anyway.
I like betting the fourth quarter to be the highest-scoring quarter at +225 (DraftKings). It's a fun bet and could mean some fireworks late. In a game that leans under overall, just the Over 11.5 may well hit that anyway.
I also like parlaying that fourth quarter Over 11.5 with a game Under 42.5 as a negatively-correlated SGP at +430 (DraftKings), but don't go crazy since it's really threading the needle on a game script.
Pick: Highest-Scoring 4th Quarter
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Browns vs Bears Team Total Pick
This is the exact sort of game the Bears have typically lost in the last couple of decades, right as the team is finally looking good and sizable favorites against a Browns team that has no business beating them.
Is this Chicago squad really different under Ben Johnson? I say yes.
It looks like a cold, blustery Chicago game with winds and subzero wind chills.
That should mean an emphasis on the run game, which both teams prefer anyway, and that may give Chicago an advantage with what Ben Johnson has done for this rushing attack, especially with Maliek Collins as a key loss on Cleveland's line.
Cleveland's defense has been below average in limiting explosives, and Chicago has been one of the league's most explosive defenses, so the Bears may find some big plays.
They should also benefit from Bears QB Caleb Williams' outstanding growth against pressure and blitz this season, since Myles Garrett and company are so good at pressuring the quarterback.
A Browns game inevitably means a low total — it's 38.5 right now — and that's artificially suppressing the Bears' team total at 23.5
I do think Chicago could start slow. That's been the case often this season, and the Browns defense has been better in the first half, but Johnson has made excellent halftime adjustments and almost always seems to find answers.
This team total could function as a proxy for a Bears win; Chicago has scored at least 24 points in eight of its nine wins this season.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Cleveland's defense simply hasn't been the same on the road, allowing opponents to go 21-4 to their team total over (84%), by almost a full touchdown a game, per Clevta.
Take the Bears to go Over 23.5 and find enough points at home.
Pick: Bears Team Total Over 23.5
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Raiders vs Eagles Over/Under Prediction
Eagles games continue to be mostly dreadful.
Philadelphia's offense is down to 27th in Success Rate on the season, and QB Jalen Hurts is a mess.
Philadelphia's defense looks elite again, but that makes these games even worse to watch since the Eagles seem content to just defend all game and wait for Saquon Barkley or A.J. Brown to hit one of their inevitable big plays.
The Raiders are pretty dreadful themselves. They're worst in the league by DVOA the last six weeks and likely now get a downgrade to Kenny Pickett at quarterback with Geno Smith hurt.
Las Vegas ranks in the bottom five in Success Rate, EPA, and explosives. The Raiders are the worst in the league against light boxes, which Vic Fangio's defense plays a heap of, since they can't block or run the ball, and Philly is elite against tight ends and should handle Brock Bowers.
This looks cold and windy, and windy games are 61% to the under in the last five seasons. It feels like a boring 20-10 grind-it-out Eagles win to get back on track and get the job done on short rest.
Since the bye week, the Eagles have scored just 16.2 PPG in five games. For a reference on just how low that is, the Raiders are dead last in the NFL in PPG on the season at 15.1. Philadelphia games are at 33.4 PPG since the bye, and the Eagles are now 8-5 to the under.
Pickett games also typically go under. In games with a total below 44, Pickett games are 15-7 to the under (68%), and Pickett is also 9-2 to the under (82%) on the road.
Totals at 38 or below that drop by over four points are 59% to the under, assuming this gets there.
The Raiders have already had six games at 34 or below this season, and frankly, they owe us some under money after last week's disastrous finish. Play the Under 38.5.
Pick: Under 38.5
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Lions vs Rams Moneyline Pick & Player Props
The stakes are significantly higher for the Lions in this one.
The Rams are pushing for the NFC one-seed, but you'll forgive them if they already have their eyes on a contest to come four days after this one, as L.A. heads to Seattle for what might be the most significant game of the season.
If the Rams win in Seattle, they're 90% to win the division, per The Athletic, regardless of this Detroit game. Win out after a victory in Seattle, beating Atlanta and Arizona, and L.A. is 95% to clinch the one-seed — again, regardless of a Lions result.
This game doesn't matter that much for L.A. A win would be a bonus, especially against old friend Jared Goff, but it matters much more to Detroit.
The Lions are just trying to get into the postseason, and stealing this one would go a long way toward giving them a shot at the playoffs.
Detroit sits at 40% to make the playoffs at the moment. However, that moves to 90% if they win this game and either beat Chicago in Week 18 or sweep Pittsburgh and Minnesota in between.
Lose this one and the Lions drop to around 30% to make the playoffs, effectively needing to win out and get help over those final three games to squeeze in.
This matters more to Detroit, which means the Lions will play and coach more aggressively, and they'll do so with extra rest, with everything on the line, as opposed to a Rams team just trying to get to Thursday healthy. That stuff matters.
These are both outstanding teams, each of them in the top five by DVOA on both offense and defense. The Rams' offense is the standout unit, though their special teams is by far the weakest.
There's a world where Matthew Stafford puts up another MVP performance against his old team, a reeling secondary missing its top three players.
In the last three games against the Lions, Sean McVay has relentlessly attacked this man-heavy defense with his go-to receiver — the Rams WR1 has averaged 11 catches for 149 yards in those games.
That includes a 9/181 game from Puka Nacua. I'm investing in some alt overs in case Nacua goes off again. The Lions rank in the bottom 10 by DVOA against WR1s and have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Nacua saw a midseason dip from Weeks 6-11, with barely over 50% snaps and just 6.3 targets per game, but the eight games before and after saw a 74% snap rate, 11.6 targets per game, and an average line of 9/116.
I'll skip the median outcomes and play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365) and 150+ receiving yards at +451 (DraftKings).
Nevertheless, even with Stafford and this passing attack lighting up the scoreboard, the Lions won two of those three matchups anyway, and this team stacks up stylistically like other teams that have given the Rams problems.
LA's losses this season have come against the Eagles, 49ers, and Panthers — three teams with physical, bruising rushing attacks that can control the clock and keep Stafford and this offense on the sidelines. The Rams also barely got past the Colts and Seahawks, two more teams that fit that bill.
That's Lions football, running the ball and biting kneecaps. That's how head coach Dan Campbell wants his team to live.
Detroit's secondary got lit up by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last Thursday, too, but the Lions won comfortably anyway.
If Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery attack all game on the ground, can the Rams defense keep up? LA's defensive front is built around small, speedy pass rushers. The Rams have struggled against bigger, more physical teams.
If those pass-rushers do get pressure on Jared Goff, the numbers suggest it will be a big problem for Detroit. However, if Goff can get the ball out quickly or keep handing it off to his runners, Detroit can play Lions football and follow the underdog script to victory.
The preseason line for this game was Lions -1.5. It's now Rams -5.5, a full touchdown in LA's direction. Are the Rams really a full touchdown better than the Lions now, compared to what we expected coming into the season?
Detroit just needs this more than L.A. The Rams are the better team, but the Lions have matchup advantages to exploit, and it's worth playing the +225 moneyline and giving Detroit a chance to win.
This was the underdog I built this week's Pick Six moneyline parlay around, pairing the Lions ML with five big favorites at +571.
Pick: Lions ML +225; Puka Nacua 10+ Receptions, 150+ Receiving Yards
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Commanders vs Giants Rushing Yards Escalator
This is yet another game I make near a coin flip, though I don't really care who wins this one.
Washington sits 10th in Success Rate on the season offensively, and the Giants offense has been above average with Jaxson Dart, so we may get some scoring, even in another windy, freezing game.
Both teams allow top-five fantasy points to WRs, and WanDale Robinson has at least six catches in four of his five games with Dart.
I like Robinson's Over 5.5 receptions at +118 (FanDuel). His catches are usually short, so the weather shouldn't be a big factor.
Mostly though, this sets up as a run game with the weather, and that's not great news for the Giants, who rank dead last defending the run in both DVOA and EPA per play. They're especially bad against inside runs, where Washington is top 10 by EPA.
Chris Rodriguez has quietly stepped forward as the lead back for Washington down the stretch. He's played his three highest snap-rate games of the season in the last three, logging 55% of Washington's RB carries and averaging a modest 12 carries for 57 yards. Not great, but not nothing!
The Giants have played four games this season against an opponent with either Running Back By Committee or an injured RB1; in the other nine games, opponent RB1s are averaging 111 yards per game.
Rodriguez has at least 10 carries for at least 41 yards in each of these last three games, so play him to go Over 48.5 rushing yards (bet365).
Maybe it's just that, but this looks like the sort of random player that swings fantasy matchups around the nation if C-Rod goes off.
His best game this year was 15 carries for 79 yards. The Giants have allowed at least 80 rushing yards in eight of those nine games against a healthy, clear RB1.
Place part of your Rodriguez bet on 80+ yards at +475 and a bit on 100+ yards at +1200 (both bet365) in case he hits triple digits for the first time in his career.
Pick: Chris Rodriguez Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
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Panthers vs Saints Receiving Yards Escalator
Stop me if you've heard this before, but this is another game I make close to a coin flip.
The Panthers are better as underdogs than as favorites, and this is a bad matchup with the Saints run defense, especially with QB Tyler Shough playing surprisingly well.
Shough has had good chemistry with TE Juwan Johnson, and tight ends have ravaged Carolina all season. The Panthers rank dead last by DVOA against tight ends and in the bottom five against middle passes, and they've allowed the sixth most yards to TEs.
Johnson's snaps are down of late with Taysom Hill back in the lineup, but his stats haven't dropped at all. He's catching almost 80% of his looks, getting a better, more catchable ball from Shough, and averaging 4.4 catches for 49 yards with his rookie QB.
Bet Juwan Johnson to go Over 37.5 receiving yards (bet365), a line he's hit four games in a row, and let's play a little escalator.
Johnson has at least five catches in over half his games (7 of 13), including twice with Shough, so play 5+ receptions at +165 (bet365).
He caught four balls for 92 yards against Carolina a month ago and has two other games at 70+ yards, and the Panthers have allowed that number four times this season, so you can also sprinkle 70+ yards at +500 (bet365).
Pick: Juwan Johnson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
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Titans vs 49ers TD Prop and OPOY Pick
The poor Titans are now 0-10 against current top-eight seeds, losing by an average of 14.9 PPG. They're 2-1 in all other games, but it's another tough game here with the 49ers coming off their bye and looking like they should be able to name their score.
A Christian McCaffrey touchdown feels like a free space.
The Titans have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns, third most in the NFL, with at least one TD to all but three opposing RB1s.
McCaffrey has at least one touchdown in 9-of-13 games, but at -275 for an Anytime TD, the juice may not be worth the squeeze.
I'll jump straight to 2+TDs at +170 (bet365). McCaffrey has at least two scores in three of the last five 49ers wins. He's become this entire offense. Touch 3+ TDs at +650 as well.
If McCaffrey does have another big game against these Titans, he could find himself in the mix for Offensive Player of the Year.
I wrote in the Extra Point in this week's Pick Six about why I'm betting McCaffrey at +2500 to win OPOY too (FanDuel).
Pick: Christian McCaffrey 2 TDs + OPOY
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Ravens vs Bengals Alternate Receiving Yards Prop
Oh, hey, another game I made near a coin flip! I'll be sorely tempted to bet the Bengals if we get Joe Burrow at +3 as an underdog.
The Bengals defense has been awful, but the Ravens offense is clearly broken. I'm tempted to bet on a big Derrick Henry rushing game or just playing the Ravens' tight ends against this terrible defense, although it's telling that I'm passing.
Instead, I'm all-in on a monster Ja'Marr Chase game.
The Ravens are top 10 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, and Tee Higgins is still in concussion protocol. When the Bengals played Baltimore a year ago without Higgins, Chase caught 11 balls for 264 yards.
Chase has murdered Baltimore of late, with 7/110 a month ago, along with that 11/264 game and 10/193 last year, scoring five touchdowns in those three games on over 14 targets a game.
The Ravens have allowed 114+ yards to a receiver in four of their last seven games, so start with 100+ yards for Chase at +135 (bet365), but don't stop there. He's already had 160+ yards twice this season, so play 150+ yards at +700 too (bet365).
Chase has actually had at least one game with 190+ yards every healthy season of his career — although not yet this year! He's due, and an incredible three of his five career 190+ games have come against these Ravens.
I'm playing 190+ yards at +2200 (DraftKings), and we'll play the top number available too at 200+ yards since it's +3200, a ridiculous extra 10-to-1 payout for a meager 10 more yards.
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase 100+ Receiving Yards
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Vikings vs Cowboys Player Receptions Escalator
The Vikings rank 25th by DVOA against opposing WR1s. Minnesota rarely allows opponents to throw the deep ball, but it is horrible defending it when opponents do take their shot — dead last in EPA per play at 1.19.
Dallas attacks deep early and often and does it pretty well at 0.86 EPA per play.
The question is who is the Cowboys' WR1, with CeeDee Lamb looking like he'll be back and out of concussion protocol?
I think it's George Pickens either way. Pickens had an embarrassing effort in that Thursday night loss, but he'll have a big physical advantage against Minnesota's corners, and this looks like a great bounce-back spot.
Pickens is the downfield target for this team. He ranks second in the NFL in air yards, far ahead of Lamb, who's not even in the top 15.
The Vikings have allowed 15 passes of 26+ yards this season, and Pickens has 11 catches of 27+ yards himself.
Play Pickens to go Over 25.5 yards on his longest reception (Hard Rock), and play an escalator at 40+ yards longest reception too at +350 (bet365).
The Vikings have allowed seven catches of 37+ yards, and Pickens has a 39+ catch in five of his last nine.
Minnesota doesn't typically allow huge yardage games — only five opposing WRs have gone over 75 yards all season. Pickens had hit 78+ yards in seven straight til the last game, though I'll skip his Over 78.5 and go straight to an alt in case he gets a couple of big plays.
Pickens has 134+ receiving yards four times already this season, so let's sprinkle 140+ yards at +700 (bet365) and hope for a monster bounce-back night.
Pick: George Pickens Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception
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Week 16 Lookahead Pick: Jaguars vs Broncos Spread
The Broncos are slowly winning me over. Denver made it to the top 10 of my power ratings, which doesn't seem like much for a potential one-seed, but it's a big leap from where the Broncos have been all season — and it's well ahead of the Jaguars now, who I'm still not seeing it with.
Denver has been trending up, top five in DVOA over the last seven games, including top-10 on offense.
On the one hand, this could look like a spot to wait. Jacksonville is a big Sunday favorite over the Jets, and the Broncos are home underdogs to the Packers, so perhaps this line moves the other direction.
However, if Denver beats Green Bay or the Jaguars struggle some with New York, as I fear, then we'll never get this one below the key number.
Every point matters with the Broncos, and this is already Broncos -3 at FanDuel, so I'm happy to play -2.5 at DraftKings below the key.
Assuming a typical Denver home-field advantage, this line is basically pricing these teams as equals. I don't see it.
I think they're in entirely different weight classes and would make this more like Denver -5, so give me Broncos -2.5
Pick: Broncos -2.5
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Brandon's NFL Week 15 Betting Card
- Jets +13.5; +700 ML
- Pats 1st Half -0.5; Bills 2nd Half -1.5
- Packers vs. Broncos Highest-Scoring 4th Quarter
- Bears Over 23.5 Team Total
- Raiders vs. Eagles Under 38.5
- Lions ML +225; Puka Nacua 10+ Receptions, 150+ Rec. Yards
- Chris Rodriguez Over 48.5 Rush Yards
- Juwan Johnson Over 37.5 Rec. Yards
- Christian McCaffrey 2 TDs + OPOY
- Ja’Marr Chase 100+ Receiving Yards
- George Pickens Over 25.5 Yards Longest Reception
NFL Week 16 Lookahead Pick
- Broncos -2.5
