San Francisco 49ers Odds

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Hurts hasn’t been using his legs as much this season and, while that could obviously change now that we’re in the playoffs, I still think there’s decent value on his under here. He’s only cleared this once since Week 5, and part of that is because he’s averaging a career-low 1.7 designed rush attempts per game this season. The league has started to make it tougher to run the infamous tush push by calling false starts on it at a higher rate, and the play itself hasn’t been as efficient this year. We’ve also seen them experiment with variations, like pitching it to Barkley instead, which led to a long TD run against the Chargers. As a result, we haven’t seen Hurts rack up as many cheap rush attempts. He’s also facing a 49ers defense that’s struggled to generate pressure ever since Nick Bosa went down in Week 3, as they’ve generated the 2nd lowest pressure rate since then. Lane Johnson is tentatively expected to return as well, so Hurts could operate from one of the cleanest pockets he’s seen all season, which would lower his expected scramble rate. His rush att prop has crept up with the Eagles now favored by 6 points over the 49ers (it was -3.5 earlier in the week), which makes sense because his chances of kneel-downs from a victory formation increase, which is always key to this market. But a leading game script would also lower his dropback volume and potential scrambles, which caps his ceiling here. I’m projecting him closer to 6.7 rush attempts, and having access to a win if he lands on 7 exactly (which I have happening around 15% of the time) is massive here. That’s why I’m projecting around a 63% chance he stays under 7.5.

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There are a bunch of unknowns entering this game, but right now, everything sure seems to be coming up Philly. Trent Williams is questionable for San Francisco, and he's among the most important non-QBs in football. He would be a huge loss here against a ferocious Eagles defensive front. Lane Johnson looks set to go for Philly on the other end. If Williams sits and Johnson plays, that would be a huge swing in Philadelphia's favor — literally worth a couple points to the spread. San Francisco just can't get or stay healthy this season. Brock Purdy took a wicked hit on his final play of the regular season and that could leave him vulnerable to reinjury, and it looks like the 49ers could be shorthanded at receiver with Ricky Pearsall in doubt. The defense remains ravaged by injuries too, especially at linebacker, and this is not the team you want to be short linebackers against. The Eagles are rested and ready to defend their crown, while the wounded 49ers are licking their chops after laying a Week 18 egg and blowing the 1-seed. That's a rough setup for San Francisco. The 49ers were absolutely the better team over 17 games this season, but the Eagles are the far healthier team right now, and they also have a flurry of matchup advantages here. We know how poor Philadelphia's offense has been, but San Francisco's defense somehow rates even worse. The Eagles rank bottom 10 by DVOA offensively; the 49ers are even worse. Ditto on just the rushing attack, where Philadelphia has the second worst run stuff rate in the league, but San Francisco plays more light box than any team and has so many injuries up front. Jalen Hurts remains terrible under pressure. But San Francisco might be the worst pressure team in the league. The 49ers rank 29th in pressure rate and dead last in pressure-to-sack rate. San Francisco had only 20 sacks all season! Nick Bosa finished two off the team lead — and he hasn't played since September! Philadelphia's offense is flawed and will likely be exposed later in the playoffs, but San Francisco's defense looks like the perfect salve this week. And while San Francisco's offense has been red hot for much of the past few months, it's been much better against actual defenses. Since Brock Purdy returned from injury, the 49ers are at 54% Success Rate against defenses ranking 20th or worse but just 36% in three games against any defense even close to league average — Seattle, of course, but also Carolina and Cleveland. Unlike many elite offenses, the 49ers aren't winning with big explosive plays. This is an offense that matriculates the ball down the field with high Success Rate, then wins on the money plays. The 49ers rank first in EPA per play on both third down and in the red zone. That's a worrisome formula against top defenses that can stop those money plays — it's a big difference going 2-for-4 in the red zone instead of 4-for-4, or finishing 4-for-11 on third down instead of 7-for-11. Those are tiny samples over a full season, but in a playoff game, they represent the end of your season. Philadelphia's defense ranks top four in both third down and red zone defense. Vic Fangio has this unit playing elite defense once again, a clear top five unit over the final half of the season. And his defense has a history of shutting down Kyle Shanahan. In four previous meetings, a Shanahan-led offense has scored just 15, 11, 9, and 6 points — barely 10 PPG. Shanahan offenses attack the middle of the field as much as anyone, and Fangio's defense leads the league in EPA there. They also rank 2nd against short passes, where the 49ers also rank second, and they're elite against tight ends. Philadelphia plays a lot of light boxes, daring opponents to beat them with the run. Past 49ers teams would have eaten in that spot, but San Francisco ranks just 30th in EPA per play against light boxes this season, and that's an even bigger problem if Williams is out. Jalen Hurts is unbeaten at home in the playoffs, 4-1 ATS winning by an average of 21 PPG. Brock Purdy is 0-4 both SU and ATS as an underdog in his career, failing to cover by 12 PPG. The matchup and numbers suggest this could turn ugly — but I can't invest in Philadelphia at such an inflated number. I like the under. I bet the under early this week on the Hot Read at 46.5 but still like it anywhere above 44. Philadelphia unders are 7-1 since their bye week at the start of November (not counting Week 18 when they sat starters), compared to 3-6 before that. Eagles games average just 33.8 PPG in those eight games, with all four matchups against playoff teams finishing at 41 or below. Don't forget the winter conditions, either. This looks windy, and windy unders are 61% over the past five seasons. Besides, you should default to the under this round until proven otherwise. Outdoor non-division games with a total at 41 or above are an incredible 35-9 to the under in the Wild Card Round over the past couple decades, hitting at a smoking 80%. How about a couple silly small sample trends that have been invincible since 2016? Home teams coming off a home loss are a perfect 10-0-1 to the under in the playoffs — that's Philly — while road teams coming off a home loss are 10-0 to the under themselves (San Francisco). I don't trust San Francisco to score in this matchup, and the Eagles never seem to score anymore. Philadelphia games have been an ugly watch down the stretch, with totals since the start of November at 47, 45, 39, 31, 31, 25, 25, and 17. This is an under all the way. Play the best line you can find — we'll go under 45.5 (BetRivers), and let's take the mineshaft too. Five of the last eight Eagles games are at 31 or below, so let's play under 33.5 at +460 (bet365), and we'll try under 27.5 too at +870 (FanDuel), since both of those are slight key numbers for low total games. If this is going to be an ugly watch, we may as well profit.

There are a bunch of unknowns entering this game, but right now, everything sure seems to be coming up Philly. Trent Williams is questionable for San Francisco, and he's among the most important non-QBs in football. He would be a huge loss here against a ferocious Eagles defensive front. Lane Johnson looks set to go for Philly on the other end. If Williams sits and Johnson plays, that would be a huge swing in Philadelphia's favor — literally worth a couple points to the spread. San Francisco just can't get or stay healthy this season. Brock Purdy took a wicked hit on his final play of the regular season and that could leave him vulnerable to reinjury, and it looks like the 49ers could be shorthanded at receiver with Ricky Pearsall in doubt. The defense remains ravaged by injuries too, especially at linebacker, and this is not the team you want to be short linebackers against. The Eagles are rested and ready to defend their crown, while the wounded 49ers are licking their chops after laying a Week 18 egg and blowing the 1-seed. That's a rough setup for San Francisco. The 49ers were absolutely the better team over 17 games this season, but the Eagles are the far healthier team right now, and they also have a flurry of matchup advantages here. We know how poor Philadelphia's offense has been, but San Francisco's defense somehow rates even worse. The Eagles rank bottom 10 by DVOA offensively; the 49ers are even worse. Ditto on just the rushing attack, where Philadelphia has the second worst run stuff rate in the league, but San Francisco plays more light box than any team and has so many injuries up front. Jalen Hurts remains terrible under pressure. But San Francisco might be the worst pressure team in the league. The 49ers rank 29th in pressure rate and dead last in pressure-to-sack rate. San Francisco had only 20 sacks all season! Nick Bosa finished two off the team lead — and he hasn't played since September! Philadelphia's offense is flawed and will likely be exposed later in the playoffs, but San Francisco's defense looks like the perfect salve this week. And while San Francisco's offense has been red hot for much of the past few months, it's been much better against actual defenses. Since Brock Purdy returned from injury, the 49ers are at 54% Success Rate against defenses ranking 20th or worse but just 36% in three games against any defense even close to league average — Seattle, of course, but also Carolina and Cleveland. Unlike many elite offenses, the 49ers aren't winning with big explosive plays. This is an offense that matriculates the ball down the field with high Success Rate, then wins on the money plays. The 49ers rank first in EPA per play on both third down and in the red zone. That's a worrisome formula against top defenses that can stop those money plays — it's a big difference going 2-for-4 in the red zone instead of 4-for-4, or finishing 4-for-11 on third down instead of 7-for-11. Those are tiny samples over a full season, but in a playoff game, they represent the end of your season. Philadelphia's defense ranks top four in both third down and red zone defense. Vic Fangio has this unit playing elite defense once again, a clear top five unit over the final half of the season. And his defense has a history of shutting down Kyle Shanahan. In four previous meetings, a Shanahan-led offense has scored just 15, 11, 9, and 6 points — barely 10 PPG. Shanahan offenses attack the middle of the field as much as anyone, and Fangio's defense leads the league in EPA there. They also rank 2nd against short passes, where the 49ers also rank second, and they're elite against tight ends. Philadelphia plays a lot of light boxes, daring opponents to beat them with the run. Past 49ers teams would have eaten in that spot, but San Francisco ranks just 30th in EPA per play against light boxes this season, and that's an even bigger problem if Williams is out. Jalen Hurts is unbeaten at home in the playoffs, 4-1 ATS winning by an average of 21 PPG. Brock Purdy is 0-4 both SU and ATS as an underdog in his career, failing to cover by 12 PPG. The matchup and numbers suggest this could turn ugly — but I can't invest in Philadelphia at such an inflated number. I like the under. I bet the under early this week on the Hot Read at 46.5 but still like it anywhere above 44. Philadelphia unders are 7-1 since their bye week at the start of November (not counting Week 18 when they sat starters), compared to 3-6 before that. Eagles games average just 33.8 PPG in those eight games, with all four matchups against playoff teams finishing at 41 or below. Don't forget the winter conditions, either. This looks windy, and windy unders are 61% over the past five seasons. Besides, you should default to the under this round until proven otherwise. Outdoor non-division games with a total at 41 or above are an incredible 35-9 to the under in the Wild Card Round over the past couple decades, hitting at a smoking 80%. How about a couple silly small sample trends that have been invincible since 2016? Home teams coming off a home loss are a perfect 10-0-1 to the under in the playoffs — that's Philly — while road teams coming off a home loss are 10-0 to the under themselves (San Francisco). I don't trust San Francisco to score in this matchup, and the Eagles never seem to score anymore. Philadelphia games have been an ugly watch down the stretch, with totals since the start of November at 47, 45, 39, 31, 31, 25, 25, and 17. This is an under all the way. Play the best line you can find — we'll go under 45.5 (BetRivers), and let's take the mineshaft too. Five of the last eight Eagles games are at 31 or below, so let's play under 33.5 at +460 (bet365), and we'll try under 27.5 too at +870 (FanDuel), since both of those are slight key numbers for low total games. If this is going to be an ugly watch, we may as well profit.

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Outdoor unders in WC Round 38-24 (62%) since 2005, 29-14 (67%) when O/U 43+. #SundaySixPack

@KendraMiddleton_ https://myaction.app/CzsNa2JJLZb

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/iaHrpO8FLZb

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Purdy has gone over this # in 3 of last 4 gms. PHI 31st ranked defense vs QB run yds at 24yds per gm + average 5 att allowed per gm. 2 scrambles all we need here

@KendraMiddleton_ https://myaction.app/hSigtEPpIZb

#RLM

We didn’t get to go through all the games on the pod but this was another early Hot Read. I have four strong unders trends, plus Philly game 7-1 to under since bye (not counting wk18 rest) averaging <34. Niners offense has been elite vs bad D but poor vs even avg D. Hoped for 47 cuz key but total is slipping so grabbing now.

Feels like the high point here. Gotta buy this back after early money poured in on Philly fading the Niners defense. I just don’t know what this Philly Offense has proven to where you can be confident getting margin here. Feel like the negative perception of them has kinda died down since the Chargers game after playing a bunch of nobody’s and having that luckbox win vs Buffalo. Meanwhile perception of this Niners team has became negative after one bad performance without Trent Williams and Pearsall, who I am hopeful can return here. Will gladly take Shanahan and company at this number in a game where worst case there will always be hope for a backdoor

Never do football but I like this one