The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox on September 30, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 6:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The greatest rivalry in baseball will be renewed Tuesday, as the Red Sox and Yankees begin a highly anticipated three-game Wild Card series with a trip to the American League Division Series on the line. The Red Sox went 9-4 against the Yankees during the regular season and advanced the last time these rivals faced off in the Postseason in 2021.
Game One offers a tremendous pitching matchup, as two Cy Young candidates will face off when Garrett Crochet (2.59 ERA, 205 and 1/3 IP) faces off against Max Fried (2.86 ERA, 195 and 1/3 IP). The Yankees are currently priced at -135 to Game One, and -180 to win the series.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- Red Sox vs Yankees picks: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +115 (Bet365, Play to +110)
My Red Sox vs Yankees best bet is Red Sox Moneyline +115. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7 100o / -120u | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7 100o / -120u | -140 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 18-5 | W-L | 19-5 |
| 5.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.8 |
| 2.59 2.92 | ERA /xERA | 2.86 3.40 |
| 2.89 2.64 | FIP / xFIP | 3.07 3.41 |
| 1.03 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 25.7% | K-BB% | 17.2% |
| 48.3% | GB% | 52.4% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 99 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Red Sox vs Yankees Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Strong Seasons From Crochet, Chapman
With an ERA of 2.59 across 205 and 1/3 innings of work in a brilliant first season with the Red Sox, Crochet will likely finish as the runner-up in the AL Cy Young vote. Crochet's underlying metrics were comparably excellent to his 2024 ones this season, as he finished with an xERA of 2.93 and a 2.64 xFIP, as well as a strikeout minus walk rate of 25.7%. He also held a Stuff+ rating of 116 and a Pitching+ rating of 112.
Like Fried, Crochet was slightly less dominant in the second half of the season, pitching to an ERA of 3.20 and an ERA of 3.55 in his final five starts. However, the underlying metrics suggest that he was still pitching at an elite level, as in his final 33 innings of work, Crochet held an xFIP of 2.23, allowed an xBA of .202, and had a strikeout minus walk rate of 29.8%.
Led by an otherworldly season from closer Aroldis Chapman, who finished with an ERA of 1.17 in 61 and 1/3 innings of work, the Red Sox bullpen finished with the second-best ERA in baseball and ranked ninth in ERA in the final month of the season.
The Red Sox were much less productive offensively than the Yankees this season and project as the lesser team versus left-handed pitching in particular. Boston held a wRC+ of 103 this season with an xwOBA of .326. It was much superior to the Yankees in terms of base-running (third in Baserunning Outs Above Average).
Boston will remain without a key piece in this series, as Roman Anthony was left off the roster due to injury. Anthony slugged .463 during a strong debut season and will be a big miss versus a tough lefty in Fried. Alex Bregman is also listed as day-to-day with illness, but is expected to play in this matchup.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Yankees Struggled Despite Offensive PowerTK
While Fried won the final game of the 2021 World Series with six shutout innings against the Astros, he has struggled in each of the following postseasons and holds an ERA of 5.10 across 67 innings of work in the postseason overall. He's earned the right to this high-pressure start with another excellent season, pitching to an xERA of 3.39 and an xFIP of 3.36 in 195 and 1/3 IP this season.
In his final ten starts of the season, Fried held an ERA of 3.38 and an xFIP of 3.21. He also managed a strikeout minus walk rate of 17.4% and a Pitching+ rating of 110.
New York's high-powered bullpen struggled to live up to the hype following the trade deadline, pitching to an ERA of 4.50, as well as an ERA of 5.13 in September.
The Yankees finished with a wRC+ of 121 versus left-handed pitching this season, and their lineup's much greater effectiveness versus lefties is their most noteworthy edge in this matchup. In September, New York slugged .483 versus LHP; however, it also had plenty of swing-and-miss, striking out 26.8% of the time.
The numbers do support the widespread perception that the Yankees do not play fundamentally sound baseball, as they rank as the second-worst playoff team in most defensive metrics and second-worst among playoff teams in Baserunning Runs Above Average.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Most metrics suggest that Crochet was the superior of today's two starters in the regular season and that he offers an edge over Fried. Fried does offer more playoff experience than Crochet, including a high-profile World Series-clinching start; however, he's not found success since that point in the playoffs, and may not truly be more prepared to handle this type of pressure than Crochet is.
The Red Sox bullpen was more effective overall in the final two months of the season than the Yankees and, led by Chapman's brilliance, was equally effective in high-leverage situations.
The Yankees were the better team offensively by a considerable margin this season. Still, their higher swing-and-miss rate in the final month of the season, as well as lesser fundamental play, are concerning entering a potentially tight-knit matchup. The same can be said for the Yankees' poor defensive play relative to their opponent.
New York is also a slightly larger betting favorite in this matchup based on its expected advantage from playing at home; however, historical results suggest that playing at home in this type of pressure-packed spot is not always advantageous, as is the case in many sports.
Dating back to 2012, road teams are 33-29 in the Wild Card round and have yielded a +18.3% ROI. Since 2022, home teams have a 10-16 record in the Wild Card round and hold a -34% ROI. My point is not to say that home field is a disadvantage or that those trends have to continue as a rule; however, those numbers do make a strong case that pricing in much home field advantage does not seem overly accurate.
Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline +115 (Bet365, Play to +110)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Red Sox is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
My lean would be backing the Red Sox to cover the run-line, but I prefer the price to bet on them winning the game.
Over/Under
A total of 7 seems fair for this matchup.
