The Colorado Rockies (3-14) and Los Angeles Dodgers (13-6) wrap up their series on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch from Chavez Ravine is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA and Rockies.TV.
The latest Rockies vs Dodgers odds have the Dodgers as -335 moneyline favorites and Rockies as +265 underdogs. The game total is 8.5 (-113o / -107u). The Dodgers are -150 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Rockies are +123 to cover (+1.5).
Below, you can find my Rockies vs Dodgers prediction and spread pick.
Rockies vs Dodgers Prediction, Best Bet
- Rockies vs Dodgers pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-148) | Play to -160
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 8.5 -109o / -112u | +275 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -152 | 8.5 -109o / -112u | -345 |
- Rockies vs Dodgers Moneyline: Rockies +275, Dodgers -345
- Rockies vs Dodgers Total: 8.5 (-109o / -112u)
- Rockies vs Dodgers Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (+125), Dodgers -1.5 (-152)
- Rockies vs Dodgers Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (bet to -160)
Rockies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP German Marquez (COL) | Stat | RHP Bobby Miller (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | W-L | 0-0 (Season Debut) |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 4.60/3.18 | ERA /xERA | — |
| 3.09/4.46 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 1.47 | WHIP | — |
| 4.5% | K-BB% | — |
| 50% | GB% | — |
| 96 | Stuff+ | — |
| 99 | Location+ | — |
Rockies vs Dodgers Preview, Prediction
Rockies Betting Preview
The Rockies may have no better option on the hill than German Marquez, a now-30-year-old pitcher who's pitched in just eight games since the 2022 season due to a list of injuries.
Marquez has been a reliable pitcher away from Coors Field when he's been healthy. He owns a 3.83 career ERA on the road with a solid .238 batting average against him. Across all of his starts, he's proven to be incredibly steady in the walks column with slightly below-average strikeout numbers.
A ground-ball pitcher for his entire stay in the bigs, Marquez has come out with a 51% rate of contact on the ground in three starts this season but has walked 10.4% of the batters he's seen — a number weighed heavily by a disastrous home start against the Athletics where he issued six free passes. I'm never one to completely overlook one outlier performance, particularly when it's recent. However, we have a large sample to draw from over the course of the righty's career, which tells us that's probably not going to happen very often. In his other two starts, he walked just one.
Marquez has married that ground-ball profile with a solid-enough .243 Expected Batting Average. Opponents are currently hitting .276 against him, and that's been due to a poor start by this Rockies infield, which ranks 20th in Outs Above Average. Now, the infield did rank seventh in OAA a year ago, and the delta is large between his results and expected results, so I'd wager that number will head down with little changes to the defensive personnel.
Dodgers Betting Preview
Ah, Mr. Miller.
We thought this guy would break baseball much like Paul Skenes had early in his career, and as a rookie it was hard not to feel that way. He pumped in one of the very best fastballs in the game, averaging 99 with a 98th-percentile run value.
While he maintained a low 6.3% walk rate, his strikeout numbers quickly rose as the season progressed to the point where he appeared destined to be an utterly reliable option.
He's been anything but in the last calendar year. Miller lost control of his arsenal with an 11.6% walk rate in 13 starts a year ago, and while he continued to keep the ball on the ground and find the same kind of velocity on the four-seamer, it was rocked to the tune of a .348 xBA.
Miller would not find much joy after receiving a demotion, posting a 13.1% walk rate and 6.00 ERA in eight starts, and when he was elevated to the bigs again, he showed some signs of improvement.
That made his spring an intriguing watch, but it would end after just two batters when he was struck by a line drive. He's since returned to the hill down in Triple-A, and while he's seemed to find a groove with a tidy 2.25 ERA in three appearances, those walks are still piling up.
He's walked an insane 11 of the 52 batters he's faced, and while the new ABS challenge system has messed with walk rates a bit, a deeper dive would tell you that's not playing a role at all in his issues. He's not coming anywhere close — issuing a ton of four-pitch walks and missing wildly in two-strike counts, and on top of that, he's already recorded three wild pitches in 12 outings.
There's certainly a case to be made for a pitcher who is effectively wild, and to that end, Miller has registered an excellent .158 xBA and .236 xSLG down in the PCL — an extremely hitter-friendly league. His 21.2% strikeout rate isn't bad, though you never want to own identical strikeout and walk rates, and his fastball is still around 98 with a tidy .134 xBA. This guy can absolutely return to glory; all he has to do is throw more strikes.
Rockies vs Dodgers Prediction & Spread Pick
This one's hard to read because we haven't seen enough of Miller to draw strong conclusions about his growth. He showed some renewed control in his final seven starts between the two levels, but it's hard to say he hasn't gone backwards so far this season.
The good news is that this is just about the best matchup he could ask for in his return, facing a Rockies lineup which ranks dead last in wRC+ and has chased out of the zone at the third-highest mark in the big leagues. That's led to a league-worst 28.9% strikeout rate, and when you also consider that Colorado has walked at the sixth-lowest rate, Miller's agonizing hunt for strikeouts could bring his volatility to an end — at least for one night.
On the flip side, the Dodgers were a better team against ground-ball pitchers a season ago than they were in the reverse split, and in a limited sample this season, that gap has grown quite large as they sit third in OPS versus launch-angle avoiders and 19th against fly-ball arms.
Pitching to ground balls hasn't worked very well against this lineup in the past two seasons, and with the Dodgers' bats heating back up in this series, the scales should firmly be tipped in their favor despite Marquez holding a theoretical edge pitching on the road.
It's hard to trust Miller, a man who has let us down so many times, but he's still just 26 and doing just about everything well, other than finding the range on his arsenal. He'll eventually figure it out, and this friendly matchup should go a long way toward righting the ship.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-148)
Moneyline
Despite just 6% of the bets and 11% of the money hitting the Rockies here, we've seen some sharp action coming in on the underdogs. Colorado's won just one road game in 11 tries.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers are just 3-6 to the run line over their past nine games, but still stand 7-4 as home favorites, one of the 10 best marks in the league. Colorado has covered just twice in 11 games as a road underdog.
Over/Under
Each of these teams is 4-1 to the Under in their last five games, and as a home favorite, the Dodgers are 6-5 to the Under.
Rockies vs Dodgers Betting Trends
Rockies Betting Trends
- Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Rockies are 2-9 in their road games against the spread
- Opponents are hitting .307 against Rockies starting pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: .244
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Dodgers' 11 last games at home
- The Dodgers have scored 2.22 runs per game (20/9) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28
Rockies vs Dodgers Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 16 |
| Time: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | SportsNet LA, Rockies.TV; MLB.TV |
Rockies vs Dodgers Injuries
Rockies Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| INF/OF Kris Bryant | Lumbar degenerative disc disease (10-day IL) |
| UTIL Tyler Freeman | Left oblique strain (10-day IL) |
| INF Thairo Estrada | Right wright fracture (10-day IL) |
Dodgers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Clayton Kershaw | Left toe/knee (60-day IL) |
| RHP Evan Phillips | Right rotator cuff (15-day IL) |
| RHP Michael Kopech | Right shoulder (15-day IL) |
| LHP Blake Snell | Left shoulder (15-day IL) |
