It was a rough start to the year, with my MLB NRFI picks going 1-for-2 on Opening Day. One of the NRFI bets was perfect through five outs, while the other looked like a winner until a manager's review flipped it to a loss.
It's a long season, though, and those outcomes will break for us just as much as they do against us in the long run.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFImodel predictions for Friday, March 28.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Friday Predictions
Mets vs Astros NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. Tylor Megill
My model gives the YRFI a true value of around -115 for this game, which features an eight-run total slightly juiced to the over.
Astros starter Hunter Brown had reverse splits as a starter in 2024, with his ERA predictors slightly worse in his first time through the order than overall. The Mets' Tylor Megill had more typical splits, but an ERA just over 4.00.
The bigger factor is both teams' lineups. All six hitters with guaranteed first inning at bats have wRC+ marks of at least 116, and both teams have a superstar (Yordan Alvarez and Juan Soto) who was a top-five hitter in all of baseball last season.
Braves vs Padres NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Reynaldo Lopez vs. Dylan Cease
The -121 line available at BetRivers is solid, considering the 7.5-run total in this game. The rest of the market is at -135 or more, with some books as high as -155 on the no side. Due to that, I'd only take this bet at BetRivers (or other associated books that have identical lines).
With that out of the way, the primary driving force here is the pitchers. They each had well above-average first time through the order splits last season. Additionally, while both lineups are solid at the top, there's no true superstar to worry about among the first three hitters for either team.
That's enough at the current price, especially with the pitcher-friendly weather we're predicting.
