The struggling Minnesota Twins (5-12) host the New York Mets (11-5) for the middle game of their series on Tuesday night at Target Field. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and Twins.TV.
After putting together a complete performance to take the first game of the series on Monday night, New York will look for another when it sends righty Tylor Megill to the hill opposite Bailey Ober.
Oddsmakers have this game as a 'pickem. Find my Mets vs Twins prediction and pick below, plus the latest MLB lines, betting trends and more.
Mets vs Twins Prediction
- Mets vs Twins pick:Over 8
My Mets vs Twins best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Twins Odds, Predictions
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -110o / -110u | -110 |
- Mets vs Twins Moneyline: Mets -110, Twins -110
- Mets vs Twins Total: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Mets vs Twins Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+150), Twins +1.5 (-178)
Mets vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Tylor Megill (NYM) | Stat | RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 0.63/3.06 | ERA /xERA | 7.11/5.81 |
| 2.09/3.49 | FIP / xFIP | 5.61/4.67 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.74 |
| 2.43% | K-BB% | 2.00% |
| 39.5% | GB% | 28.6% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 97 | Location+ | 106 |
Mets vs Twins Preview
Mets Betting Preview: Megill's Hot Start
Megill is certainly living up to his nickname this season. After taking a step forward in 2024 with a career-best 4.04 ERA, he's gotten off to a flying start in 2025, with a 0.63 ERA through his first three outings.
While he's been a joy to watch, he's still more or less the same guy that he was a year ago. Megill has maintained his gains in the strikeout department (27.4 K%), but he continues to struggle with command, walking 11.3% of the batters he's faced.
That's simply an unacceptable number for a guy who's not pushing for the league-lead in strikeouts, and on top of that, it's not even like he's inducing friendly contact when the ball's coming back into play.
It's true that Megill has allowed just one barrel in 14 1/3 innings, but that's just about the only nice thing we can say here. That low barrel rate — and the fact he's yet to allow a home run — has heavily weighed down his xSLG and his xERA in chorus.
His .238 Expected Batting Average is good, but it's not great, as it's just seven points lower than the league norm. He's married a very high 47.4% hard-hit rate with a large number of line drives.
His fly-ball rate is at an incredibly low 13.2%, and his pop-up rate sits at an insane 18.4%, which has helped him come home with the neat numbers we laid out above.
Generating pop-ups at even an 11% clip would be considered unsustainable, with the league average being around 7%. And to make matters worse, his career mark is 6.6%.
I'd proceed with extreme caution before believing too much in the righty.
Twins Betting Preview: Ober's Tough Task
Ober, like Megill, has been the same guy in 2025 that we've known him to be over the course of his career. He's always shown a distaste for pitching to ground balls, but this season, he's taken it to the extreme, as his ground-ball percentage has dropped roughly six points (28.6%).
His fly-ball rate continues to be one of the highest in the league, but in the early going, he's leapt 13 points to register a 33.3% line-drive rate, which is nine points greater than average.
That's not even the tip of the iceberg with Ober. However, it's important to note that batters are having a field day when it comes to lifting and pulling the ball.
His hard-hit rate is an astronomical 54.8%, but even if that comes down, he's still going to be just as vulnerable when it comes to opponents hitting for power.
He was able to generate plenty of flyouts last year to get his xBA down to a cool .209, and his low 6.1% walk rate and decent-enough 26.9% strikeout rate mitigated the risk that comes along with his contact profile.
Well, so far this season, he's failed to strike many batters out — doing so at a 20% clip — and his walk rate is all the way up at an uncharacteristic 10%. That's going to spell trouble against a Mets team that's top-five in strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Even though he'll be moving away from his hitter-friendly home park — where he had a myriad of issues last season — Citi Field isn't all that nicer to pitchers like him, ranking 13th in Park Factor for home runs since 2023.
Mets vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis: Over/Under Pick
Minnesota's offense continues to show no signs of life, sitting in the bottom third of the league in all major categories over the past week of play. That's no different than what we've seen all year.
With that said, it's, at the very least, continued to put the ball in the air as it seeks to bolster its power numbers. The Twins have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league, with the seventh-greatest delta between expected and actual batting average.
I'm not a big believer in Megill's start being sustainable after a further dig into the numbers, and despite a flat and undisciplined look, I won't discount the Twins from getting to him a bit with the acceptable nature in which they've hit the ball.
On the flip side, this is another nightmare matchup for Ober against a team that does draw a lot of walks and has limited the strikeouts — all while sitting just outside the top 10 in ISO.
We have to trust the numbers here and back both pitchers to show their true colors.
Pick: Over 8 (-115)
Moneyline
Both the sharps and our experts are on the Mets here as short road favorites, and judging by the sizable gap between both pitchers and offenses, I'd be inclined to head that way as well.
Run Line (Spread)
The Mets are just 5-7 to the run line as favorites this season while the Twins are 3-1 as underdogs.
Over/Under
Seven of the Twins' last eight games and eight of the Mets' last 10 games have gone under the total, but New York has gone 3-3 to the over as road favorites.
