The NL East-leading New York Mets (16-7) host the Philadelphia Phillies (13-10) on Tuesday, April 22. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
After New York's offense broke out with some big blows against Philly in the first game of this series on Monday, it may be time for the Phillies to return the favor with an edge in Tuesday's pitching matchup.
Find my Phillies vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, weather forecast and more.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies vs Mets pick: Phillies Moneyline -132 (Play to -140)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is Phillies moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -105o / -115u | +110 |
- Phillies vs Mets Moneyline: Phillies -130, Mets +110
- Phillies vs Mets Total: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Phillies vs Mets Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+125), Mets +1.5 (-150
Phillies vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Griffin Canning (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.96/2.65 | ERA /xERA | 3.43/3.88 |
| 3.61/2.55 | FIP / xFIP | 3.71/3.64 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 24.8 | K-BB% | 12.5 |
| 53.2 | GB% | 53.6 |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Ducey’s Phillies vs Mets Preview
Phillies Betting Preview: Look to Rebound Behind Sanchez
It's hard to call Cristopher Sanchez a late bloomer at 28 years old, particularly after two strong seasons in Philly's rotation, but he's begun to make a leap into ace territory this year.
Sanchez has remained a ground-ball forward arm, but he's traded in some of those worm-burners for more strikeouts, with a 30.7% K-rate through four starts to put him into that elite tier.
The lefty has also managed a .215 Expected Batting Average — which is well below his roughly average .249 xBA over his career — and the xSLG has come down almost 40 points from a very strong .362 in 2024.
As he continues limiting walks and pitching to friendly contact, there aren't many great ways to score off the lefty right now. His sinker has actually been hit 30 points better than expected, too, largely due to the Phillies sitting 15th in Outs Above Average in the infield.
They did rank 13th last year and retain some good personnel, so there's a chance Sanchez could further improve on his earth-shattering early results.
Mets Betting Preview: Ride Momentum at Citi Field
The Mets are getting good innings from one of their newest pitching-factory projects in Griffin Canning, who owns a 3.43 ERA through his first 21 innings in New York.
He's been a fellow ground-ball producer, rolling them up at a 54.4% clip, though with the Mets' infield ranking 20th in OAA, there are certainly some concerns that he'll be able to sustain such friendly numbers.
Still, there's not a whole lot to hate about the start. His .247 xBA and 3.88 xERA are right around the league average, and he's regained his strikeout touch at a 23.9% clip thus far.
Canning has never been a maestro when it comes to limiting walks, however, and his 11.4% walk rate currently stands as the worst of his career.
Limiting walks and hard-hit balls will be key for Canning, who's been prone to giving up homers in the past with his contact-oriented approach. Dfense will also be of the utmost importance for a Mets unit that's looked challenged in all areas of the field.
There's also a chance that Jesse Winker — who drove the ship offensively on Monday — will be held out in favor of Starling Marte as part of this team's outfield platoon, which would certainly give me a bit less faith in this team to hit the ball.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
So far, the Phillies have looked like a sound team at the plate. They struck out a surprising 10 times against Tylor Megill, but overall this season, they own a friendly 11.3% walk rate and 21.6% strikeout rate to rank among the most disciplined teams in the league.
Power has abandoned them, but they've hit .251 and should stand a great chance at getting to Canning in this one.
The Mets may make a platoon switch, which hurts them at the plate. With their heavy reliance on power hitting, I'm not quite sure that's one that makes sense. New York is just 23rd in OPS to ground-ballers this year, too, which is five spots lower than its ranking against fly-ball arms.
Considering they struggle against ground-ballers, own just a 91 wRC+ against lefties and struggle with strikeouts in that split, I'm very confident that Sanchez will perform in this one and lead Philly to a big win.
He may not need much run support, but he should get some with Canning sitting in a vulnerable position.
Pick: Phillies ML -132 (Play to -140)
Moneyline
The sharps are hitting the Phillies on the moneyline here, and while 53% of the bets are on the road favorites, they've accounted for even more of the handle at 57%.
Run Line (Spread)
The Phillies have gone 7-2 to the run line after a loss this season, while the Mets are 7-8 after a win.
Over/Under
The sharp money and our experts are on the under here, and I like that bet almost as much as the Phillies on the moneyline. The under is a perfect 5-0 when the Mets have been underdogs this year.
