The Atlanta Braves (9-14) host the St. Louis Cardinals (10-14) on Wednesday, April 23, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports South/Midwest.
The Braves have somewhat righted the ship, winning four out of their last five games entering the Wednesday series finale against the Cardinals. It will be Bryce Elder on the hill for the Braves and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals.
I preview the series finale below and offer my Cardinals vs Braves prediction.
Cardinals vs Braves Game Information and Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -148 | 9 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +124 | 9 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Cardinals vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| Bryce Elder (ATL) | Stat | Miles Mikolas (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 0-2 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 7.20/4.98 | ERA /xERA | 7.64/4.63 |
| 7.04/4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 2.98/5.11 |
| 1.53 | WHIP | 1.58 |
| 7.5% | K-BB% | 4.9% |
| 55.8% | GB% | 36.5% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 114 | Location+ | 110 |
Cardinals vs Braves Prediction
- Cardinals vs Braves picks:Over 8.5 (play to 9.5)
My Cardinals vs Braves best bet is Over 8.5 (play to 9.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Sean Paul’s Cardinals vs Braves Betting Insights
Braves Recent Betting Performances, Stats
It might sound crazy in retrospect, but Bryce Elder was an All-Star less than two whole years ago. Since then, Elder earned a spot on the Gwinnett to Atlanta shuttle due to posting an ERA nearing seven in his past 13 starts.
The right-hander has a 7.20 ERA in three outings this year with a 7,04 FIP. However, Elder's expected stats are much better with a 4.98 xERA and 4.34 xFIP. Sure, that's better, but a 4.98 xERA is still bad, just more appealing than a 7.20 ERA.
Elder lives for putting teams on the ground, boasting a stout 83% ground ball rate. The problem Elder runs into is that he lacks the weapons to consistently get major league hitters out. He features a four pitch mix with a strong emphasis on his sinker and slider, but his offspeed run value is in the 1st percentile, while his fastball run value ranks in the 28th percentile.
At the end of the day, these are major league hitters who can make low 90s fastballs look like batting practice. If Elder throws a 90-92 mph sinker that doesn't sink the proper way, he can get destroyed by the homers.
The much-maligned Braves offense has been a top-10 offense in baseball since April 1st. After being among the worst for the first week of the year, the Braves have a 112 wRC+ in the last three weeks.
The turnaround coincides with Matt Olson and Austin Riley getting rolling. While Olson struggled for much of 2024, he’s one of the more prolific power bats and owns a 132 wRC+ in that span. Riley, meanwhile, leads the Braves with five homers this month with a batting average over .300.
Cardinals Recent Betting Performances, Stats
While I talked about Elder’s misfortune, Miles Mikolas isn’t much better. At least Mikolas’s peripherals provide a glimmer of hope for things trending in the opposite direction. Despite posting a 7.64 ERA, Mikolas could see better days ahead with his strong 2.98 FIP.
The problem for Mikolas is his lack of swing-and-miss stuff, as his 5.6 K/9 number indicates. The tricky thing with a soft-tossing pitcher who seldom records a punch-out is that they have to show pinpoint control. Mikolas doesn’t do that, though, as he has a BB/9 in the 3.5 range. If Mikolas can’t throw consistent strikes, that’ll lead to real issues for his future outlook.
The more you dive into the profile for Mikolas, the quicker you realize his FIP might be the outlier stat. The veteran right-hander ranks in the 19th percentile with a .286 xBA, 38th in hard-hit rate, and 55th in average exit velocity. Between the spike in walks from Mikolas and how hard he gets hit, it makes putting money on him feel like a foolish task.
While the Braves' offense is trending up, the Cardinals' offense has taken a nosedive. After looking strong earlier, St. Louis ranks 16th in MLB with a 99 wRC+. That’s largely a result of the Cardinals' power shortage, hitting just 15 homers this month.
Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado are the only Cardinals hitting consistently. Donovan is sneakily one of the more underrated bats in MLB, posting 166 wRC+ this month with a minuscule 12% K-Rate. Power could be a persistent issue, as Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman inch closer and closer to bust territory. Hitting for contact is a good thing in moderation, but lacking a true big-bopper could hold the Cardinals from being a real NL Central threat.
How To Make Cardinals vs Braves Picks
Although I have deeper concerns about the Cardinals' offense, I like this matchup. With how often the Cardinals put the ball in play, the BABIP luck could play in their favor, especially if Elder continues to get hit hard.
We're looking at two truly below-average major league starters with one league-average offense and one who could be a top-five offense the rest of the way.
That feels like the perfect spot to grab the over at fewer than 10 runs. I expected the total to open at 9.5 instead of 8.5, so I love the value in the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (play to 9.5)
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the run line.
Over/Under
This pitching duel is the recipe for a high-scoring duel. I'm backing the over.
