Weekday Conference USA action is officially back!
With college football and NFL games stretching from tonight through next Monday and more CUSA action starting back up on Tuesday, we have nonstop football every day this week.
The action on Wednesday, Oct. 8, features two games in Conference USA.
First, Missouri State makes its midweek debut when it takes on Middle Tennessee. Then, Liberty and UTEP meet for what should be a stellar nightcap.
Our college football writers came through with Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for both games, so let's strap in — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Thursday night college football betting coverage.
Wednesday College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
By Joshua Nunn
The Missouri State Bears take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro, Tenn. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Missouri State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +2.5 underdog and is +115 to pull off the small upset. The over/under sits at 50 points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 8.
Missouri State Bears
Missouri State has fought valiantly in its three home games this season, including last week, where it lost a close game to perennial CUSA favorite Western Kentucky.
The Bears nearly overcame losing star quarterback Jacob Clark, who went down with a leg injury in the second quarter, as backup Deuce Bailey led two second-half touchdown drives in the five-point loss.
Missouri State had been one of the worst rushing teams in the country, but it got the ground game going against WKU with 214 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry.
Shomari Lawrence led the group with 78 yards, and Bailey found ways to create with his legs on numerous occasions.
The pass game — which has been a strength for Missouri State during the last several years — struggled to do much of anything. This will be something to watch because Clark is not expected to play in this one.
Bailey should look a little more comfortable in passing situations this week after having 10 days to prepare as the starter, but he won't be able to fully replicate the experience of a fifth-year senior like Clark.
It’s really hard for a team to dig itself out of a hole when it gives up 73 points and 600 yards of offense, as the Bears did against USC in the opener. But this defense hasn't played too poorly, given the circumstances.
This unit stifled the WKU passing attack for long stretches of this game and also forced punts or turnovers on downs on five of the Tops' first seven possessions.
Factor in how well this unit performed against SMU, and we could potentially be talking about a reliable stop unit here for Missouri State.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee has been a disappointment in head coach Derek Mason's second season.
Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has been average for the Blue Raiders offense, and there's very little help around him. This team was embarrassed at home by FCS Austin Peay in the opener and faded in the fourth quarter three weeks ago when hosting Marshall in a weather-delayed contest.
While the operation did look a little better against Kennesaw State, too many mistakes, drops and ineffective play-calling kept this bunch from getting over the hump. The offense is simply too inefficient to be relied upon to score points.
Defensively, the metrics aren't great for the Blue Raiders.
The stop unit played better on the road last time out against Kennesaw State, but the inability to stop the pass or get off the field in key moments has really hindered its chances.
If Middle Tennessee is going to save its season and get on the right side of those close losses, the defense is going to have to play better.
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Pick
Weekday CUSA action is finally here, and I'll be watching this one with an under ticket in hand.
Missouri State's offensive output is sure to take a step back with a backup quarterback in a conference road environment.
The Bears rank just 117th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 130th in Finishing Drives, and that was with the experienced Clark at the helm.
The Bears struggle to consistently stack successful plays together and are far too reliant on explosive plays to move the ball. That's not sustainable long term, especially when they convert just 27% of their third-down attempts.
Middle Tennessee has been good against the run this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground at home. This front seven grades out as the second-strongest run-stopping unit in CUSA and the fifth-best tackling unit, per PFF.
I could see this defense stepping up with fresh legs after extra rest to provide some resistance to what Missouri State wants to do offensively.
On the other side, the MTSU offense is unbearably inefficient, scoring just 16 points per game this season. The Blue Raiders are averaging 3.1 yards per carry on the ground, and the offensive line has allowed 18 sacks.
Middle Tennessee has converted only 29% of its third-down attempts, so I don’t believe this offense will have enough success to score enough points to go over the total.
This game could be entertaining. We should see plenty of possessions, but I would also assume a lot of punts.
Both of these offenses are inefficient and have question marks everywhere. We've seen some steam on the under, and I agree with the move.
Pick: Under 50.5
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Liberty vs. UTEP
By John Feltman
The Liberty Flames take on the UTEP Miners in El Paso, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -115. UTEP, meanwhile, is a +1.5 underdog and comes in at +105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 points.
Here’s my Liberty vs. UTEP predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 8.
Liberty Flames
Liberty's offense has struggled to find its rhythm, and the advanced numbers confirm it.
The Flames rank 119th nationally in EPA per Pass at -0.17 and 93rd in EPA/Rush at -0.03, signaling an inability to generate explosive plays or maintain consistent drive efficiency.
Their Available Yards Percentage of just 38.4% underscores the offense’s difficulty turning possessions into meaningful scoring opportunities.
These weaknesses align poorly against a UTEP defense that's quietly performed to a top-30 level this season.
The Miners rank 26th in EPA per Pass Allowed at -0.17 and 25th in EPA per Rush Allowed at -0.14, demonstrating a balanced ability to limit air and ground production.
Even more impressive, UTEP ranks third nationally in third- and fourth-down Success Rate, allowing conversions on only 28.1% of such attempts.
Liberty, by comparison, converts just 40% of its third and fourth downs, ranking 107th nationally. This disparity in critical downs could prove decisive in a low-possession game.
Personnel issues further compound Liberty’s offensive problems.
Starting quarterback Ethan Vasko has been battling a shoulder and neck injury, forcing backup Michael Merdinger into extended action. While Merdinger provides mobility, he has struggled with accuracy and decision-making against better defenses.
Vasko expects to play, but it remains to be seen if he'll be at 100%.
To make matters worse, offensive guard Cal Grubbs has been ruled out for the season, and tackle Trey Bedosky is questionable.
These injuries have disrupted pass protection and run blocking, leaving the Flames vulnerable against an aggressive UTEP front.
UTEP Miners
UTEP’s offense hasn't been without flaws, ranking 129th in EPA per Pass at -0.24 and 118th in EPA per Rush at -0.12.
Once a highly-touted five-star recruit, quarterback Malachi Nelson has shown flashes of talent but remains inconsistent, particularly when pressured.
Despite those struggles, this matchup provides a potential path for improvement.
Liberty’s defense has been shaky against the run, ranking 117th in EPA per Rush Allowed at +0.10, and its overall Available Yards Allowed rate of 49.1% suggests a tendency to let opponents sustain drives.
The Miners’ offensive approach should focus on simplifying early downs, utilizing short passing concepts and relying on inside zone runs to stay ahead of schedule.
Liberty’s defense thrives when it forces opponents into long third downs, but UTEP can negate that advantage by staying patient and limiting negative plays.
The Sun Bowl’s high altitude, dry air and moderate wind will also make it difficult for Liberty’s defense to maintain energy across four quarters, particularly given the travel from the East Coast and the short preparation window.
If UTEP can establish any semblance of rhythm offensively and protect the football, its defense can carry it deep into the fourth quarter with a chance to win outright.
Liberty vs UTEP Pick
The betting market initially opened Liberty as a 2.5-point favorite, but sharp money quickly trimmed the line down to -1.5, showing early support for UTEP. ESPN’s predictive model gives UTEP a 57.3% chance to win the game outright, implying a fair line closer to UTEP -2 rather than +1.5.
Environmental conditions also favor the Miners. Kickoff temperatures are expected to hover around 80 degrees with minimal humidity and winds near 10-12 miles per hour.
These conditions suppress explosive passing plays and tilt outcomes toward teams that can win in the trenches, which is precisely where UTEP holds its most consistent advantage.
Injuries also favor the home side. Liberty’s quarterback uncertainty and depth issues on the offensive line could limit play-calling aggression.
Meanwhile, UTEP enters relatively stable, with its main losses coming at the wide receiver and running back positions, where the coaching staff has developed capable replacements.
This matchup projects to be a deliberate, field-position-driven contest, where defensive play and third-down performance will be key.
Liberty’s offense has leaned heavily on the run, often settling for conservative play-calling when behind the chains. That tendency hits on UTEP’s defensive strengths, which center on early-down containment and efficient tackling.
Expect a slower pace, limited possessions and a total that likely stays under 50 points. In that kind of environment, every third-down stop and turnover looms large.
UTEP’s elite efficiency on money downs and Liberty’s inconsistency through the air suggest that the Miners will have multiple opportunities to seize momentum at home.
If Nelson protects the football and UTEP avoids special teams breakdowns, this game sets up well for a one-possession finish favoring the underdog.
Considering all of this, UTEP should not only cover the 1.5-point spread but also have a legitimate chance to win outright. Given the market movement and defensive advantages, I like the Miners to do just that.
Pick: UTEP +1.5 (Play to PK)
