The Buffalo Bills (13-4) and Denver Broncos (10-7) will play today at 1 p.m. ET in the NFL Wild Card Round from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., live on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Let's get to the latest Bills vs. Broncos odds and my NFL predictions for today.
The Bills are 7.5-point favorites over the Broncos with the over/under set at 48 total points. Buffalo is a -410 favorite to win outright on the moneyline and Denver is +320.
Bills vs. Broncos Odds, Prediction
Over/Under
My best bet for this matchup is on the Under at 48 total points.
As I detail in my analysis below, the Broncos and Bills both benefited from facing not-so-great defenses throughout the regular season.
My Pick: Under 48.5
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
- Bills vs. Broncos spread: Bills -7.5
- Bills vs. Broncos over/under: 48.5 total points
- Bills vs. Broncos moneyline: Bills -410, Broncos +320
Bills vs. Broncos Preview, Picks
This game features offenses that have scored a combined 950 points this season compared to 838.7 by Expected Score, putting this game strongly in expected scoring regression territory.
Led by Josh Allen, the Bills have a fantastic offense — but their 525 points are 83.5 over expected. And while you may be inclined to say that an Allen offense should come in above expected, our Expected Scores adjust for the QB and offense quality — as well as the opposing defense quality — and Buffalo is still scoring at an unsustainable rate relative to the game situations they've found themselves in.
Case in point: The Bills came in just 12 points over expected last year, and 11 points under expected the year prior. That nets out to essentially right at expectation for two years.
That unsustainable scoring rate is inflating the Bills' team total, but I also think there's room for Denver to stay under as well.
Bo Nix had a strong rookie season, but he's still a rookie starting in his first playoff game, on the road, in cold weather. There's also questions as to the quality of defenses Nix has faced, with Denver facing the eighth-easiest opposing defensive schedule.
Buffalo loves to play two-high safety zone looks, which should keep explosive plays down for the Broncos. Nix tends to struggle against zone coverages as well, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions this year against zone.
It gets even worse, as Nix's best zone performance is against Cover 3, but that single-high safety coverage is the one Buffalo plays the least relative to league averages.
Instead, the Bills rank inside the top 12 each in Cover 2, 4 and 6 usage. Nix's adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) is just 4.96 compared to 6.98 against Cover 3 and 7.48 against Cover 1.
The Luck Total in this game is -5.7, and Luck Unders in the NFL playoffs are 23-8 (74.2%) to the under since 2018. Both offenses have faced bottom-eight opposing defensive schedules, meaning these defenses are significant upgrades compared to what they've faced on average this year.
Given both 48 and 47 are the two most key numbers between 44 and 51, I'll grab under 48 considering my recency-weighted, schedule-adjusted Expected Scores have this a shade under 47.
My Pick: Under 48.5
Bills vs. Broncos Betting Preview
- 63% of bets and 57% of money on the spread are on the Bills.
- 85% of bets and 78% of money are on the OVER.
- 91% of bets and 79% of money on the moneyline are on the Bills
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
- The Bills have covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 games.
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games.
- The Broncos have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games.
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the Broncos’ last 6 games.
