As Super Bowl 59 approaches on Sunday, February 9, at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, all eyes are on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles — as well as the much-anticipated halftime show.
This year, the spotlight is on Kendrick Lamar, with plenty of speculation surrounding potential special guests and the songs that will be featured in his performance.
For bettors, the halftime show presents a unique opportunity to place some intriguing prop bets.
Kendrick Lamar Props: Super Bowl Halftime Show
Odds via FanDuel Ontario.
First Song Performed Odds
| Song | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| HUMBLE. | +160 | 38.46% |
| Not Like Us | +380 | 20.83% |
| Squabble Up | +430 | 18.87% |
| King Kunta | +430 | 18.87% |
| DNA. | +500 | 16.67% |
| A.D.H.D | +500 | 16.67% |
Settled based on the first song played by Kendrick Lamar, according to Setlist.fm. Songs played from tape will be excluded.
"HUMBLE." is the favorite to open the performance due to its popularity and energetic vibe. A logical choice given its explosive sound, mainstream appeal and history as one of Kendrick's most recognizable anthems.
However, Not Like Us has also gained traction with its recent cultural significance making it a strong contender to ignite the stadium. Beyond the favorites, other options provide intriguing betting value. Squabble Up and King Kunta offer high-energy, crowd-pleasing vibes that could set the stage for an electrifying show.
Last Song Performed Odds
| Song | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| All the Stars | +210 | 32.26% |
| Savior | +470 | 17.54% |
| King Kunta | +490 | 16.95% |
| HUMBLE. | +550 | 15.38% |
| Luther | +600 | 14.29% |
| Gloria | +600 | 14.29% |
Settled on the last song played by Kendrick Lamar, according to Setlist.fm. Song played from tape will be excluded.
With SZA confirmed as a special guest, there's a strong chance they could perform All the Stars, one of Kendick Lamar's most widely recognized songs. As a result, it's a strong contender to provide a grand and emotional closing moment. However, Savior, with its introspective lyrics and powerful message, could serve as a meaningful outro, while King Kunta would allow Kendrick to end on a high-energy, crowd-pleasing note.
Meanwhile, HUMBLE. remains a viable underdog, given its mainstream success and anthemic nature. Newer tracks like Luther and Gloria suggest Kendrick might take a fresh approach, closing out his performance with something unexpected. While history shows that many halftime performers end with a massive hit, Lamar’s artistic unpredictability leaves plenty of room for surprises.
Total Number of Songs Performed Odds
| Total Number of Songs | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | +100 |
| Under 10.5 | -122 |
Settled according to the number of songs as recorded by setlist.fm.
Over the past five years, the average number of songs performed during the Super Bowl halftime show has ranged between eight and 12. In 2020, Shakira and Jennifer Lopez delivered a combined setlist of 15 songs, while in 2022, Dr. Dre’s halftime show — which included Kendrick Lamar — featured 10 songs.
In contrast, The Weeknd performed nine songs in 2021, Rihanna delivered 12 in 2023 and Usher’s 2024 setlist included 10. Based on this recent history, betting on Kendrick Lamar to perform more than 10 songs seems like a reasonable option, though not a guarantee. His performance style often features quick transitions and medleys, which could push the total number higher.
Celebrity Guest Appearance Odds
| Artist | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Baby Keem | +110 | 47.62% |
| Lil Wayne | +164 | 37.88% |
| Future | +184 | 35.21% |
| Metro Boomin | +184 | 35.21% |
| Jay Rock | +205 | 32.79% |
| Doechii | +210 | 32.26% |
| Travis Scott | +250 | 28.57% |
| Janet Jackson | +490 | 16.95% |
| ScHoolboy Q | +600 | 14.29% |
| Rihanna | +600 | 14.29% |
| A$AP Rocky | +750 | 11.76% |
| Eminem | +750 | 11.76% |
| Taylor Swift | +750 | 11.76% |
| Lefty Gunplay | +750 | 11.76% |
| DeMar DeRozan | +790 | 11.24% |
| Beyoncé | +900 | 10% |
| Anderson .Paak | +1120 | 8.20% |
| Sia | +1500 | 6.25% |
| U2 | +1500 | 6.25% |
| Jay-Z | +1800 | 5.26% |
| Imagine Dragons | +2400 | 4% |
| Maroon 5 | +2400 | 4% |
| Drake | +3500 | 2.78% |
Settled based on the celebrity physically appearing on stage and performing for at least 10 seconds, as listed on Setlist.fm.
It's no surprise that Baby Keem is the favorite. Lamar's cousin and frequent collaborator, Keem has worked with him on hits like Family Ties and Range Brothers. Close behind are Lil Wayne, Future, and Metro Boomin, all of whom have strong connections to hip-hop and the potential to elevate the show's energy. It's also worth noting that Lil Wayne is from New Orleans
On the other hand, long-shot guests like Jay-Z and Drake would be shocking surprises. While Jay-Z has been involved in producing the Super Bowl halftime show, his presence on stage alongside Kendrick seems unlikely. Drake, meanwhile, has had a complicated relationship with Lamar, making a joint performance highly improbable.
Betting on the Halftime Show in the U.S.
Beyond traditional sportsbooks, platforms like Kalshi offer markets on specific aspects of the halftime show. Available in all 50 states, the platform allows bettors to wager on several unique props, including which songs will be performed.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment. Like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits.
Use the promo code below to claim $10 when signing up as a new user.
One of Kalshi’s active events is: "What songs will be played at the Super Bowl?"
The favorites include All the Stars, HUMBLE., Luther and Not Like Us.
Another is: "Who will be part of Kendrick's Super Bowl halftime show?"
Users are split on Baby Keem, Mustard, Jay Rock, Lil Wayne and Doechii, with nearly half betting "yes" and the other half "no." Meanwhile, Jay-Z, Beyoncé and Rihanna are considered long shots.
