Divisional Weekend has arrived! Four matchups left, three with bigger spreads and also three that are rematches from games this season. With unders and home teams 5-1 in the Wild Card round, let's see what's to come this weekend.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the Divisional round of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Jan. 14, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
A Home First
Bills Flip From Favorites To Dogs
Bills are currently home underdogs in the playoffs. If they close as home dogs, it would break an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970. Their only game as a home dog in the playoffs came in 1967 against the Chiefs and Len Dawson, a 31-7 loss to KC at +3.5 — this game was played at War Memorial Stadium, their home before Highmark Stadium, their current home.
Lone Dog
Commanders Advance
The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all. The closest longshot left was the Rams in the preseason at 30-1. The Broncos and Vikings lost last week, both were 100-1 or longer, too.
The Commanders are the 9th team listed at 150-1 or longer to make the Divisional Round of the playoffs and three have made the Conference Championship, 1979 Bucs, 1999 Rams, and 2021 Bengals. Jayden Daniels is the 3rd rookie QB to be 150-1 or longer preseason and make the Divisional Round with C.J. Stroud last year and Kurt Warner in 1999 (Warner was technically a rookie in 1998 who didn’t play).
Big Numbers
It's Been A While
Lions/Commanders total is 55.5. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
Both Saturday games have been spreads. Favorites of over a TD (-7.5 or more) have won 18 consecutive playoff games outright dating back to the 2019-20 playoffs – the last loss came with the Ravens against the Titans. That 18-game streak is the longest streak at any point in the Super Bowl era.
Still On Top
Chiefs Go For History
Chiefs entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600 and won it all. KC then entered the season this year also as favorites, listed at +500. The last team to win back-to-back titles, both as the preseason betting favorite, was the 1988-89 49ers.
Also, if Texans-Chiefs closes under 43.5, it would be the lowest over/under for any playoff game with Patrick Mahomes.
Nugget Time
League Wide Notes
Some NFL playoff trends…
+ Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%).
When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET)
+ Teams with a bye in the playoffs entering the Divisional Round are cashing at a 44% ATS rate since 2003. If you combine the Super Bowl and Divisional Round, favorites off a bye week in the playoffs are 37-56-1 ATS (40%) in that span (KC, DET).
+ Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
+ Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.
+ We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round. On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.
Changing Roles
Ravens Become Favorites
Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser. Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
L.A. Confidential
Stafford, McVay Have History
In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
Stafford is 15-26-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022 – the worst mark in the NFL. He’s also 0-6 2H ATS this season after leading at the half and 2-16 2H ATS over the last three seasons in that spot.
In his coaching career, Sean McVay is 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.
The Magician
Bills Finish Strong
Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 15-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL. Under Allen, the Bills are 74-44-3 (63%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s been the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
Every NFL Game For Divisional Round
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Chiefs Maintain Super Bowl Favorite Status
➤The Chiefs entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600 and won it all. KC then entered the season this year also as favorites, listed at +500.
In the Wild Card era, since 1990 – the preseason SB favorite has won the title six times (23 KC, 18 & 16 NE, 06 IND, 94 SF, 93 DAL). 11 times they lost in the Super Bowl, two lost in the conference championship, seven in the divisional round, five in the wild card, and three missed the playoffs.
The last team to win back-to-back titles, both as the preseason betting favorite, was the 1988-89 49ers.
Texans' Historic Odds Shift
➤The Texans entered this season at 16-1 odds to win it all. They started last season at 200-1. This was the third-biggest move for a team year-to-year to 20-1 or shorter to win it all.
For teams to move from 150-1 to 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl in consecutive years (8 of them), Houston is the 4th to make the playoffs with the 1991 Cowboys, 2000 Rams, and 2022 Bengals. None of the three made the Super Bowl.
Lowest Total Ever For Mahomes In The Playoffs
➤The over/under in Chiefs/Texans is 41.5. Of Mahomes’ 18 career playoff games, this would be his lowest total – his previous low was 43.5 against the Dolphins last year.
Of his 69 career home starts, this would be his 2nd-lowest total ever behind Christmas of last year against the Raiders at 40.5 – a game KC lost.
Travis Kelce's Playoff Records Chase
➤Travis Kelce holds tons of playoff receiving records, including most receptions (165). Two he doesn’t yet are career playoff receiving yards and career playoff TDs.
Receiving Yards
1. Jerry Rice: 2,245
2. Travis Kelce: 1,903 (343 away from breaking)
3. Julian Edelman: 1,442
Receiving TDs
1. Jerry Rice: 22
2. Travis Kelce: 19
3. Rob Gronkowski: 15
Kelce has also started 22 playoff games, tied for 10th-most all-time. If he makes the Super Bowl, it will move him into 4th place behind just Tom Brady (48), Jerry Rice (29), and Peyton Manning (27).
Kelce has 5+ receptions in 14 straight playoff games, which is the longest streak by any player since the merger.
Chiefs' Second Half Under Trend
➤Over the last two seasons, the second half under in Chiefs games is 28-10 (74%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.9 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Mahomes' 4th Quarter Comeback Excellence
➤With Patrick Mahomes starting, the last time the Chiefs trailed in the 4th quarter was back in '14 vs. the Chargers, a game KC won outright 19-17. Mahomes is 26-26 SU in his career when trailing at any point in the 4th quarter, the best mark for any QB in NFL history.
Mahomes' Success On Extended Rest
➤How does Mahomes perform on extended rest, given he has not played a game since Christmas – which would be close to 24 days off the field?
He is 31-7 SU, 19-18-1 ATS playing on extended rest during the season and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 37-8 SU and 24-20-1 ATS on extended rest.
If you focus on extreme prep/rest, which would be 13+ days, Mahomes is 19-3 SU and 13-9 ATS, including those Week 1 games.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 28-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Texans' First Half ATS Success
➤Texans are 14-4 against the first-half spread this season – DeMeco Ryans is 26-11 1H ATS, including 26-9 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB.
Houston is also 5-13 against the second-half spread this season after beating up the Chargers in the second half last week, winning 22-6.
Mahomes' Divisional And Wild Card SU Perfection
➤In the last 20 years, Mahomes is the 3rd QB to be undefeated SU in the Divisional and Wild Card rounds (min 4 starts):
Patrick Mahomes: 8-0 SU
Mark Sanchez: 4-0 SU
Joe Burrow: 4-0 SU
Chiefs Thrive When Trailing At Halftime
➤Since 2020, the Chiefs are 21-12 SU (63.6%) when trailing at the half. No other team in the NFL has a win percentage above 40% in that span. The rest of the NFL wins about 23% of games outright when trailing at the half in this span.
Mahomes' Struggles ATS As Big Favorite
➤Mahomes is 22-32-3 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7 pts or more in his career, including 0-5-1 ATS this season. In those six games this year as a 7+ pt favorite, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU.
Since 2020, Mahomes is 15-27 ATS (36%) as a 7+ pt favorite, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL.
Texans' Defensive Excellence
➤The Texans' defense has been a great unit this year and that was no different last week vs. the Chargers. Houston is 10th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs, 12th vs. #2 WRs, 10th vs. #3 WRs, and they are 5th vs. TEs.
Even from an EPA perspective, Houston’s defense is 4th in EPA/dropback and 1st in dropback success rate. Not to mention, their rush defense is 2nd in adjusted line yards, too.
Dome Teams Struggling In Cold Weather Playoffs
➤The Houston Texans — a team playing in a dome — will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30-degree weather for the playoffs 9 times. Those teams are 2-7 SU, losing by over 10 PPG.
The two wins: the 2014 Saints in Philly and the 2005 Vikings in Green Bay.
Stroud's Underdog And Cold Weather Challenges
➤C.J. Stroud has made 35 career starts in the NFL. He’s 10-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 13-3 in a 6-point teaser.
Biggest Underdog of Stroud’s NFL Career:
+10 at Ravens, L 34-10
+9.5 at Ravens, L 25-9
+8 at Chiefs, Divisional
Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 10-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS when listed as an underdog.
➤Stroud has started two career games outdoors in 35 degrees or colder, the Texans are 0-2 SU/ATS, with Houston scoring 29 total pts in the two games in Baltimore and Kansas City.
From Mahomes’ perspective, cold weather success:
Under 40 degrees: 28-6 SU, 21-12-1 ATS
Under 35 degrees: 16-4 SU, 15-5 ATS
32 degrees or colder: 12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS
Under 30 degrees: 8-3 SU/ATS
Texans' Home Vs. Road Under Trends
➤Home unders have been the trend for Houston. They are 13-5 with Stroud, the best mark for any QB since he was drafted, and just 8-8-1 when Stroud starts on the road.
Commanders Are The Lone Longshot Remaining
➤The lone big dog left in the field. The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all. The closest longshot left was the Rams in the preseason at 30-1.
The Broncos and Vikings lost last week, both were 100-1 or longer, too.
The Commanders are the 9th team listed at 150-1 or longer to make the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Here is how the 150-1 or longer teams performed in the playoffs:
– One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
– One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
– One team lost in Conf. Championship (1979 Bucs)
– Five lost in the Divisional Round
Daniels is the 3rd rookie QB to be 150-1 or longer preseason and make the Divisional Round with CJ Stroud last year and Kurt Warner in 1999 (Warner was technically a rookie who didn’t play in 1998 ).
High Over/Under Draws Betting Attention
➤The over/under will probably be one of the bigger stories in betting this week. It opened at 54.5 and is up to 55.5/56 in the market.
The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
We’ve seen 17 over/under’s in the playoffs with a total of 55 or more, they are 9-8 to the over all-time, but just 4-7 to the over since 2013-14, going under the total by 7.1 PPG.
If you break it down by indoors vs. outdoors, 5-2 to the over indoors and 6-1 to the under outdoors.
No. 1 vs. No. 6 Seeds Trend To The Under
➤In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the under is 19-5 (79%) over the past 20 years, going under the total by 5.9 PPG.
Commanders’ Resilience In Late-Game Situations
➤Commanders trailed the Bucs entering the 4th quarter last week and even had a last-minute drive while tied to win it. Teams to win after trailing entering the 4th quarter in a playoff game are just 11-25 SU since 2001.
Commanders Last-Minute Wins (Last 5 Games – Since Week 14 Bye):
– Week 15 at NO: Stopped 2-pt conversion with :00 left.
– Week 16 vs PHI: 9-yd pass TD with :06 left.
– Week 17 vs ATL: 2-yd pass TD in OT.
– Week 18 at DAL: 5-yd pass TD with :03 left.
– Wild Card at TB: 37-yd FG as time expired.
Lions Thrive As Favorites In Night Games
➤Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season, including 6-0 SU from this same Lions team.
Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 10-0 SU as favorites in primetime, winning by over 10 PPG, and in games starting at 4p ET or later, they are 15-1 SU under Campbell, with their one loss coming to the Bills this season.
Lions’ First Half ATS Dominance
➤Over the last three seasons, the Lions are 39-14-1 (74%) against the first-half spread, the best mark in the NFL, including 19-6 1H ATS against opponents over .500 SU.
Campbell’s Historic ATS Success
➤Campbell is 53-29-1 ATS (64.6%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That win percentage is the best for any head coach with a minimum of 30 games in the Super Bowl era.
Lions are coming off the best 3-year stretch (2022-24, 36-14-1 ATS) and the best 4-year stretch (2021-24, 47-20-1 ATS) in the Super Bowl era.
Lions Rarely Favored By 6+ Against Winning Teams
➤Since 1998, the Lions have only been favored by 6 pts or more vs. a team above .500 SU four times. They are 1-3 SU/ATS, with their only win coming in the playoffs last year vs. the Bucs.
Lions Perfect On The Road This Season
➤Lions went 8-0 SU on the road this season, both their losses coming at home to the Bills and Buccaneers.
Over the last two seasons, Jared Goff is 15-4 SU in home games. When he faces an opposing offense averaging 28+ PPG, he is 0-2 SU, facing the Bills and Bucs.
As a duo, Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when facing teams scoring 24 PPG or more on the season – Detroit’s two ATS losses have come to Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.
Jayden Daniels Joins Elite Comeback Company
➤Jayden Daniels was only the 3rd QB to lead a 4th-quarter comeback in the postseason on the road with Russell Wilson in 2012 at Washington and Mark Sanchez in 2009 at San Diego.
Wilson lost 30-28 on the road the next week to the Falcons but covered as a 2.5-pt underdog. Sanchez lost 30-17 and failed to cover as a 7.5-pt dog against the Colts.
Perfect Playoff Game By The Commanders
➤Two QBs have engineered an offense on the road in the playoffs with 0 punts and 0 turnovers:
– 2024 Jayden Daniels
– 2003 Peyton Manning
Washington played the perfect game last week, with zero punts. Teams with 2 punts or less in their last playoff game, who are 6+ pt dogs the next week are 0-8 SU since 2002.
Goff’s Performance Indoors Vs. Outdoors
➤A lot has been made of Goff playing indoors vs. outdoors. Well, it shows up in a few ways historically, but Goff has been pretty great outdoors too this year.
Indoors:
– 44-21-1 ATS (34-13-1 ATS with Lions)
– 2024: 30 TD, 12 INT, 71.6% comp pct, 8.5 Y/A
– Career: 118 TD, 42 INT, 68.4% comp pct, 7.7 Y/A
Outdoors:
– 39-35-2 ATS (13-7 ATS with Lions)
– 2024: 7 TD, 0 INT, 76.1% comp pct, 8.9 Y/A
– Career: 104 TD, 52 INT, 62.9% comp pct, 7.5 Y/A
Lions’ Success With Extra Prep
➤When the Lions are on extended prep time under Dan Campbell, they are 12-4-1 SU and 13-4 ATS, the 2nd-best ATS mark since 2021, behind just Mike Tomlin.
When Detroit and Campbell are favorites on extended prep, they are 11-2 SU/ATS.
Commanders Face Road Trip Challenges
➤Commanders are in a tough spot in this one. Teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 45-72 SU (39%) since 2003, losing by over 3 PPG. These teams are 5-13 SU the last three seasons. When that team is a dog on the end of a road trip, they are 21-60 SU (26%), including 1-12 SU in the last 13 games in this spot.
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Jalen Hurts' ATS Record In Philadelphia
➤Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 35-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 18-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
In Hurts’ career, he is 27-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 15-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU, and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
Since Hurts was drafted, his 15-7 ATS mark is 2nd-best in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson (16-7-1 ATS), who could be in that same spot this week if they close as a road favorite.
Eagles Excel In Second Half Spread
➤ The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-5 against the third quarter spread and 11-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 24-12 in those quarters in the second half.
Philly is 6-12 against the first-quarter spread, the 5th-worst mark for any team in the NFL, and 13-5 against the 2Q spread this year, the best mark in the NFL.
Cold Weather Challenges For Stafford
➤It is expected to be around 35 degrees with some rain or snow and light wind in the forecast. Stafford has started just one game in 40-degree or colder temperatures outdoors over the last three years – earlier this season at the Jets. Rams scored 19 pts, and won 19-9 in New York.
Eagles Thrive With A Lead Under Sirianni
➤We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
Eagles' Unbeaten Home Divisional Round Record
➤In franchise history, the Eagles have never lost at home in the Divisional Round. They are 6-0 SU, covering the spread in 5 of those games.
Jalen Hurts has played three home games in the playoffs and he is 3-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 16.8 PPG with Philly’s defense allowing 24 total pts in the three games. The only other QB 3-0 ATS or better at home since 2003 is Kurt Warner, all with the Cardinals.
With a cover against the Rams, Hurts would be the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS at home in the playoffs since 2003 behind just Patrick Mahomes.
Playoff Teams On Win Streaks Struggle
➤Eagles are streaking entering this NFC Divisional Round. They’ve won three in a row both SU and ATS, the only team from the Wild Card round, on normal rest or less, playing this week. Teams on such a streak in the playoffs last decade are just 7-15 SU and 8-14 ATS, with the under 16-6 in those games.
Not just the streak, Philly’s defense has been stellar. They’ve allowed 13 pts or less in three straight games entering this playoff game. Last 20 years, we’ve seen just eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight. Those teams went 2-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their playoff game. The last three teams scored a total of 10 combined pts in their games (‘21 BAL, ‘16 HOU, ‘15 IND).
Stafford's December Underdog Turnaround
➤In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
Stafford's Struggles In The Second Half
➤Matthew Stafford is 15-26-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022 – the worst mark in the NFL. Since 2019, he is 32-53-2 2H ATS.
Stafford can’t hold a lead either. He’s 0-6 2H ATS this season after leading at the half and 2-16 2H ATS over the last three seasons in that spot.
Stafford's Road Playoff Struggles
➤In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
Stafford Thrives As An Underdog This Season
➤This season, Stafford has already won five games outright as an underdog, his most since 2016 (T-most of his career) and tied with Geno Smith for most for a QB this season. Between 2022 and 2023, Stafford was 1-10 SU as an underdog.
Rams' Remarkable Turnaround
➤Rams started the season 1-4 SU and are now a win away from the NFC Championship game. Rams are the 17th team to start 1-4 SU or worse and make the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, and none made it to the Super Bowl.
McVay's Mastery On Short Rest
➤In terms of preparing teams for a game on short rest and prep, no coach is better than McVay.
In his coaching career, he’s 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.
Super Bowl-Winning QBs Thrive As Underdogs
➤Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 62-25-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a dog before winning the ring and 37-17-2 ATS (69%) after the ring — including 15-5 ATS since the 2018 playoffs.
Rest Advantage
➤Both the Eagles and Ravens enter their Divisional Round games with a rest advantage, without having a bye week.
These will be the 60th and 61st playoff games played since 2003 where both teams aren’t off a bye week, but one team has a “rest advantage.”
2025: Rams (6) at Eagles (7)
2025: Ravens (8) at Bills (7)
The team with the rest advantage is 35-24 SU, 32-27 ATS. A small edge.
Home: 26-10 SU, 20-16 ATS
Road: 9-14 SU, 12-11 ATS (20 of 23 teams listed as underdogs)
Historic Home Underdog Status For The Bills
➤Bills are currently home underdogs in the playoffs. If they close as home dogs, it would break an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970. Their only game as a home dog in the playoffs came in 1967 against the Chiefs and Len Dawson, a 31-7 loss to KC at +3.5.
Lamar Jackson Vs. Josh Allen Rivalry
➤This is the 5th time Lamar Jackson has faced Josh Allen. Baltimore is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. The spread has only closed below 3 in one of their games, the 2020-21 playoff game won by the Bills in Buffalo.
Lamar Jackson Thrives As An Underdog
➤As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26-9 ATS in his career in both the regular season and playoffs. When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 30-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
If Lamar closes as an underdog, he is 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in that role, including 14-1 in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. As a dog, Lamar is covering the spread by 7.4 PPG.
When Lamar opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser.
Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
Josh Allen's Home Underdog Record
➤On the other side, Josh Allen hasn’t been as reliable. He is just 10-7 SU in home games where he is under a FG favorite or an underdog, but that mark is 12-2 SU since 2020. Allen has closed as a home underdog nine times in his career, he is just 4-5 SU in those games.
Allen hasn’t closed as a home underdog since January of 2021 against the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa. Miami needed a win to get into the playoffs and Buffalo won 56-26.
Lamar Jackson's Night Game Success
➤Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season. Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win percentage of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Lamar is now 1-2 SU in night games during the playoffs, beating the Steelers last week 28-14, losing 17-3 on the road in Buffalo and 28-12 at home to the Titans.
Playoff Rematch Trends Favor Previous Winners
➤Three of the four matchups this week are rematches of games already played this season: Chiefs/Texans, Eagles/Rams, Bills/Ravens.
Last decade in the playoffs, teams who played rematches in the same season, the team who won the previous game is 42-24 SU (64%) and 35-29-2 ATS in the rematch. For Baltimore, teams to win by 20+ pts in that first game are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS last decade.
Ravens Excel After Facing Steelers
➤Ravens downed the Steelers last week. The week after facing the Steelers, Baltimore is 4-0 SU/ATS over the last two seasons, including 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after facing Pittsburgh.
Overall, teams after facing the Steelers though are 11-22 SU over the last two seasons, the 33% win percentage is the lowest for any prior team in the NFL – for some teams, Pittsburgh can take it out of you.
Zay Flowers' Impact On the Ravens' Offense
➤Zay Flowers’ status is up in the air for the Divisional Round. How have the Ravens performed with and without him in the lineup?
The Ravens are 27-10 SU during the two seasons overall and Flowers has been inactive now just twice – in Week 18 last year against the Steelers. Baltimore lost the game 17-10, but Lamar Jackson also sat in that contest, and last week vs. Steelers.
When Flowers has received 5 targets or fewer in any game, Baltimore is 13-0 SU, including 2-0 SU in the playoffs.
In terms of Flowers’ impact on the field, during the regular season, Flowers had 24.1% of the Ravens' target share, almost 10% higher than Mark Andrews’ 2nd-highest mark. Without Flowers vs. Pittsburgh, two players had 4+ targets: Isaiah Likely (TE) and Justice Hill (RB).
Josh Allen's Streak Of Second Half Covers
➤Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 15-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL.
Under Allen, the Bills are 74-44-3 (63%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s been the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
In the playoffs though, Allen is just 3-8 against the 2nd half spread, including 1-4 2H ATS in the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds.
Ravens' 0-2 Start Doesn't Define Season
➤The Ravens and Rams both started this season 0-2 SU and are now in the Divisional Round. Only four teams in the Super Bowl era have started 0-2 SU and made the Super Bowl: 1993 Cowboys, 1996 Patriots, 2001 Patriots, and 2007 Giants.
Josh Allen Excels Against Tough Defenses
➤Josh Allen faces a much-improved Ravens defense. Ravens have allowed only 20.8 PPG this season and allowed just 14 points in the Wild Card Round. Allen vs. teams allowing less than 21 PPG is 27-12-1 ATS (69%).
His 27-12-1 ATS mark puts him in some good company. Best QBs since 2003 in that spot: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Josh Allen.
Bills' Struggles When Opponents Score 21+ Points
➤When opponents score 21 pts or more against the Bills, Buffalo is just 4-22 ATS since 2022, which is the worst ATS mark for any team in the NFL. During that same span, the Ravens are 9-12-2 ATS in that spot, the 3rd-best ATS mark in the NFL.
Bills' Over Trends On Team Totals
➤The Bills are an NFL-best 14-4 to the over on their team total this season. This includes going 8-1 to the over at home.
Against teams with a win percentage of 66% or higher over the last two seasons, the Bills are averaging 31.8 PPG – 34.2 PPG when the game is at home.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Rest isn't always best, especially when you are good and rolling. In later season games, team has a 75%+ win pct and is playing on extended rest. They cover 42.5% of games since 2003 and in the playoffs that is 41.4% ATS.
Matches: KC, DET
System: No matter the time of year, it's hard to win in consecutive games against good teams, especially off being an underdog.
Matches: HOU, WAS, LAR
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System: Playing on the road, on short rest, off of an unexpected win. This is also 3-11 SU in the playoffs.
Matches: WAS, LAR
System: One for fun. The top-10 QBs entering the season in salary have covered the number at an alarming rate this year.
Matches: DET, PHI, BAL
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