Every week, sportsbooks offer bets on either the highest or lowest scoring game, or the highest or lowest scoring team.
My Predictive Analytics colleague Billy Ward has been attacking these NFL props all year, hitting several times, so I'm joining in on the fun for the NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs.
As I was doing prep for The Touchdown Show, I found a spot where I'm having a hard time finding any touchdowns at all for a particular team.
That's the main reason I'm fading the Los Angeles Rams against the Philadelphia Eagles in the lowest scoring team Weekly Special.
NFL Divisional Round Prop Bet
- Lowest Scoring Team – Divisional Weekend: Los Angeles Rams (+300 at FanDuel)
Lowest Scoring Team – Divisional Weekend: Los Angeles Rams (+300)
Los Angeles travels across the country to Philadelphia a week after having its own home game displaced to Phoenix due to the tragic situation with the L.A. area wildfires. Awaiting the Rams is a near-freezing day against the No. 1 defensive team in the league.
I particularly dislike how the Rams match up against the Eagles in nearly every facet of the game.
I'll start with the run game.
Clearly, Philadelphia has a stout run defense as evidence by its No. 1 ranking in defensive rush DVOA, but I fear for L.A. it gets worse than that.
Philadelphia is somewhat beatable with zone rushing concepts, conceding the third-highest success rate on the ground to opposing offenses. Unfortunately for L.A., it deploys zone runs at the 14th-lowest rate in the league and has the 11th-worst success rate on such runs.
Instead, the Rams use man or gap runs at the ninth-highest rate, where they churn out the ninth-best success rate. That's going to be tough sledding against a team that allows the third-lowest success rate and the fourth-lowest yards per carry against man/gap runs, including the fewest TDs all year (three) on these attempts.
The Rams will have to do more of something they are less comfortable with, and have better success with it than they have recently in order to do much damage on the ground.
In the passing game, Philadelphia also matches up quite well with the Rams. In the slot, it's going to be a battle of the Coopers, as the Eagles' Cooper DeJean will line up across L.A.'s Cooper Kupp.
DeJean should render Kupp nearly useless, as Kupp has been held to under 30 yards receiving in five of his last six games, and now he faces one of the better performing nickel backs this season.
Outside, rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell has lived up to his first-round billing, ranking 13th among all cornerbacks in PFF grade, while opposite him Darius Slay ranks 21st out of 117 qualified CBs. That means Rams star WR Puka Nacua will face his toughest test all season — if L.A. is to find the end zone from farther out, it's likely going to have to come through him.
Unfortunately for the Rams' passing game, the Eagles rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA against passes 15-plus yards downfield, so it's more likely Nacua's long TD — should one occur — comes through yards after the catch, likely on Slay's side of the field.
In these teams' first meeting, the Rams scored 14 points until their final drive where the Eagles played soft with a 23-point lead. Those 14 points include one scoring drive where L.A. amassed 46 yards through two separate pass interference plays.
Without that, we're looking at a seven-point performance from L.A. prior to garbage time, with those seven points coming on the game's opening drive where the plays are planned the most in advance.
The lowest scoring team out of eight is certainly within L.A.'s range of outcomes.
The Bet: Lowest Scoring Team – Divisional Weekend: Los Angeles Rams (+300 at FanDuel)
