Another week in the books and the story across the NFL is still surrounding favorites. We'll dive into more below.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 3 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Sept. 16, at 5 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Talented Travel
Best of the Best
NFL closing favorites of 4 pts or more are 12-0 SU this season. Those teams are 64-7 SU (90.1%) since Week 13 of last year — in that same span, favs of 6+ pts are also 47-4 SU.
After the Chargers win on Monday Night Football, road favorites are 90-32 SU since the start of last season, 10-2 SU this year, with the two losses coming from the Ravens in Week 1 and the Broncos in Week 2.
All About The Number
Strength vs. Strength
Matt LaFleur dominates the early part of the season. He’s 17-6 ATS in September, including 8-1 ATS in true road games. No head coach is better at covering early than LaFleur. The Packers are 17-3 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL.
Early in the season, big home dogs have covered at an absurd rate. Home dogs of 7 points or more in the first nine games of the regular season have covered 59% of games in the last 20 years. However, since 2020, they are 37-10-2 ATS and 18-1-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons.
Back Up The Truck
Early Injuries
We have a lot of backup QBs in Week 3 – potentially five, depending on the Jets and Commanders. Within the first three games of the regular season, five backup QBs would be the 2nd-most we’ve seen since at least 2013. In 2019 Week 3, we had six backup QBs starting; they went 5-1 ATS that day.
Potential Week 3, 2025 Backup QBs:
CIN: Jake Browning in for Joe Burrow
MIN: Carson Wentz in for JJ McCarthy
SF: Mac Jones in for Brock Purdy
WAS: Marcus Mariota -> Jayden Daniels
NYJ: Tyrod Taylor -> Justin Fields
Home History
Titans Try End Streak
Titans finally covered the spread in Week 1 after a 2-15 ATS season last year, the worst we’ve seen for any team in the modern era. Titans haven’t covered the spread at home since November of 2024, though, losing nine straight ATS. That is the longest home ATS losing streak for any team since the Titans back in 2013-14 (lost 10 straight at home ATS).
Seconds Count
Second Half Spread Woes
One issue San Francisco has had is the second halves. Since the start of last season, they are 3-16 against the 2nd half spread, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
Sad List
Afternoon Nap
Caleb Williams has started seven career NFL games in the afternoon or primetime window (4 p.m. ET or later), and the Bears are 0-7 SU in those games, losing those seven games by an average of 11.1 PPG. In that same span, no other QB has more than three losses without a SU win in this window. In the 23-year history of Bet Labs database, three QBs are 0-7 SU or worse at 4 p.m. ET or later: Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Davis Mills
Night Terrors
Giants At MetLife
The Jets and Giants have played a combined 38 night games since the start of the 2019 season. They are a combined 5-33 SU in those games. Looking at the Giants themselves, they are 2-19 SU in night games since 2019, including going 0-3 SU last year.
Since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 1-11 SU in night games at MetLife Stadium.
Every NFL Game For Week 3
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➤Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in night games entering Week 3 – the most profitable start for dogs in night games since 2016.
➤Tua Tagovailoa is 2-13 straight up and 4-10-1 against the spread away from home vs. “winning teams” in his NFL career with the Dolphins. His last straight-up win came in September of 2022 against the Ravens. That's ten consecutive losses.
➤Tua is 5-14 straight up and 6-12-1 against the spread away from home vs. teams with a 50% win pct or higher — which excludes all Week 1 games.
Highest spread of Tua Tagovailoa’s career
+15 at Bills, 2021 – L, 26-11
+12.5 at Bills, 2025
Highest spread of Mike McDaniel’s career
+14 at Bills, 2022-23 – L, 34-31
+12.5 at Bills, 2025
+7 at Bills, 2022 – L, 32-29
+6.5 at Bills, 2024 – L, 30-27
➤Miami has specifically had issues with Buffalo and Josh Allen. They are 2-13 SU vs. him, including 0-8 SU in Buffalo and 1-8 SU in Tua vs. Josh matchups. Since 2017, Buffalo is 15-2 SU vs. the Dolphins. The last time Miami won in Buffalo was in 2016 – Josh Allen was in his first full season at Wyoming still.
➤Not easy for Miami to travel from Florida to Buffalo and win. Since 2005, they are 1-13 SU and 4-9-1 ATS in Buffalo after playing at home in their previous game, with their only win coming from Matt Moore against Ryan Fitzpatrick.
➤As a favorite of more than one possession (-8.5 or higher), Josh Allen is 26-2 SU in his career – his losses are to Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. The last 20 years, the only records that compete with Allen’s mark are Mahomes at 39-3 SU and Russ at 36-4 SU among active QBs.
➤Miami has historically performed well at the “1 p.m. ET window” in home games. Last 5 years, when Miami plays on the road after a 1 p.m. ET home game, they are 3-12 SU, tied for the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL in that spot.
➤Florida teams have historically struggled heading to Buffalo. The Jaguars, Bucs and Dolphins are a combined 7-26 SU in Buffalo over the last 20 years, losing by 8.7 PPG. They’ve lost 13 games in a row SU, with their last win coming by Miami in 2016. Since 2012, these Florida teams are 1-19 SU in Buffalo.
➤Sean McDermott is a coach who tends to start hot. Buffalo is 20-9 SU in September under McDermott – a $100 bettor would be up $1,096 on the moneyline in September, the most of any coach in the last 20 years. McDermott is 14-4 SU in September since 2020.
➤Bills have won the turnover battle in 24 straight games – that’s the longest streak in NFL history.
➤Josh Jacobs has scored a TD in 11 consecutive games for the Packers. The record for consecutive games with a TD is 17 by Christian McCaffrey. If Jacobs gets to 12 in a row, here is a list of players to do that since 1990: McCaffrey, Arian Foster, Emmitt Smith, Derrick Henry, and LaDanian Tomlinson.
During Jacobs' 11-game TD streak, his odds have never been plus-money (-105 was shortest), he was -310 vs. Saints last year, his longest price. A $100 bettor rolling over their bet would be up $20,393 entering this wee,k and a $100 bettor each week would be up $836.
➤Jordan Love has dominated second halves. In his career, he is 26-12 (68%) against the second-half spread. After the Packers lost the 2H 15-13 last week, Love and Green Bay haven’t lost the 2H spread in consecutive games since Christmas of 2023 – 5 straight 2H covers after a 2H loss in the previous game.
➤Matt LaFleur dominates the early part of the season. He’s 17-6 ATS in September, including 8-1 ATS in true road games. No head coach is better at covering early than LaFleur. The Packers are 17-3 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL.
LaFleur has closed as a favorite of 6 pts or more 28 times as coach of the Packers; his teams are 25-3 SU and 16-12 ATS – 14-7 ATS at home and 2-5 ATS away from home.
➤Teams that start 2-0 SU/ATS and are covering at a high margin tend to struggle with an inflated spread in their 3rd game. Teams covering by 6+ are 42-53-2 ATS, and teams that cover by 9+ are 29-41-2 ATS since 2003. The Packers are covering by 9.3 PPG entering this matchup vs. the Browns.
➤Early in the season, big home dogs have covered at an absurd rate. Home dogs of 7 pts or more in the first nine games of the regular season have covered 59% of games in the last 20 years, but since 2020, they are 37-10-2 ATS and 18-1-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons.
➤Kevin Stefanski’s biggest home underdog lines of his coaching career with the Browns. As a home dog of 6+ pts, Stefanski is 2-0 SU with Cleveland.
+9.5, 2023 vs. 49ers – won, 19-17
+7.5, 2024 vs. Ravens – won, 29-24
➤The Browns at home in the dawg pound has been a nightmare for good teams recently. Cleveland is 12-5 SU at home vs. teams above .500 since 2020, a $100 bettor would be up $931. In fact, it’s been the whole AFC North, who is 54-32 SU at home vs. teams above .500 since 2020, with a $100 bettor up almost $2,326 (27% ROI).
➤The Browns are on a terrible cover run recently. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Cleveland is 5-16 ATS, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of only the Titans, who are 4-16 ATS in that span. The Browns are failing to cover the spread by 7.5 PPG since the start of 2024.
➤Joe Flacco has started 14 total games over the last 3 seasons for both the Colts and Browns combined. In those 14 games, both teams have averaged a total of 52.4 PPG combined, with the over 10-4 in those games, going over the listed total by 10 PPG. For QBs with at least ten starts in that span, Flacco’s over ROI (36.6%) is tied for the best mark with Drake Maye, who is also 10-4.
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➤How can we not start with Indiana Jones? The Colts have had 16 total drives this season, and they have scored points on 14 of those drives, with zero punts. Daniel Jones has 588 pass yds through Indy’s first two games. Only Peyton Manning and Johnny Unitas have done that for the Colts. The Colts also have no turnovers through their first two games – they’ve never done that in franchise history. Jones is also slinging it a bit. His average depth of target is 8.5 this year, 1.2 yards higher than his career average entering this season.
➤The Colts are the 4th team since 1960 to have consecutive games with 0 punts at any point during the regular season. All three teams went on to win and cover their third game after the streak.
2024 Commanders, Weeks 2-3
2021 Bills, Weeks 16-17
2004 Steelers, Weeks 15-16
➤The Colts have dominated the Titans in recent years. They are currently on a 4-game SU and ATS win streak over the last two full seasons.
➤In 2024, underdogs in the AFC South went 11-1 ATS, and since 2019, they are 45-27 ATS (63%), best of any division.
➤Colts hit the road for the first time after scoring points on 14 drives in two games at home. Daniel Jones is 17-10-1 to the under in his road starts since 2020, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL behind Kyler Murray and Kenny Pickett.
➤Might be an indoor thing. In his career, Daniel Jones is now 9-3 ATS playing indoors and 28-33 ATS outdoors – since the beginning of the 2023 season, Jones is 3-11 ATS playing outdoors, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just Will Levis.
➤Cam Ward has been sacked 11 times so far through two starts this season, most by any QB in the NFL. Is it time to get things right? Since 2018, we’ve seen four teams allow 5+ sacks in Week 1 and 2, they all won and covered in Week 3, winning the game by double-digits.
➤Titans finally covered the spread in Week 1 after a 2-15 ATS season last year, the worst we’ve seen for any team in the modern era. Titans haven’t covered the spread at home, though, since November of 2024, losing 9 straight ATS. That is the longest home ATS losing streak for any team since the Titans back in 2013-14 (lost 10 straight at home ATS).
➤Titans lead the NFL in penalties with 23, committing 10+ in both Week 1 and 2. Since 2018, teams that commit 10+ penalties in consecutive games have a 30-15 SU and 27-18 ATS record, including a 12-10 SU and 15-7 ATS record as underdogs.
➤Common theme to recent Colts seasons. Under Shane Steichen, Indy is 17-8 ATS in September, October, and November and 3-8 ATS in December or later. hen is tied with Dan Campbell more most ATS conversions in November or earlier since the start of 2023.
➤Vikings played at night in primetime in Weeks 1 and 2. Since realignment in 2002, teams to play in consecutive night games within the first 6 weeks of the regular season are just 21-29 ATS in their next game, including 1-7 ATS since 2023.
In six total games on the road in Minnesota, the Bengals are 0-6 SU/ATS in their franchise's history, granted their last trip came back in 2017 without Joe Burrow.
➤JJ McCarthy was sacked six times in Week 2 against the Vikings, the 2nd-highest mark over the last three seasons for the Vikings, behind just the 9 sacks Sam Darnold took in the playoff game last year. In the Kevin O’Connell era, Minnesota is 2-0 in the game directly after taking 6+ sacks (not counting the playoff game last year).
➤With Carson Wentz taking over in Minnesota, there is a reason the total has dropped 6+ pts since the opener, from 47.5 to 41.5 – In Carson Wentz’s last 14 starts since December of 2021, the under is 11-3.
➤Kevin O’Connell had to go to a backup QB back in 2023 for a significant part of the season, and the Vikings went 3-6 SU in those nine games with the likes of Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall, and Josh Dobbs.
➤Since 2023, Joe Burrow has been 6th in success rate in the NFL. Of the 67 QBs with 100+ plays since 2021, Jake Browning is 19th in success rate, not bad.
Success rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.
When you compare their average depth of target, Burrow is 7.0, while Browning is up to 6.6. In 2023, when Browning got an extended start run, he kept them afloat, especially with his play when Cincinnati trailed: 69.2% comp%, 7.9 Y/A, 6 TD, 4 INT.
Looking specifically at his Week 2 performance, he was getting the ball out quickly, at 2.42 seconds to throw, the quickest mark of any QB in the NFL this season (took 1 sack on 32 pass attempts).
➤Jake Browning is 4-3 SU as the Bengals starter, but it’s hard not to ignore this. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 45-32-1 SU with Burrow and 8-22 SU with all other QBs (Ryan Finley, Browning, Brandon Allen, Andy Dalton),
➤How valuable have Burrow and the offense been to Cincinnati? Since 2020, when the Bengals throw 2+ passing TDs, they are 40-14-1 ATS, when they throw one or fewer, they are just 14-21-2 ATS.
➤Vikings scored just 6 pts last week at home on Sunday Night Football vs. Falcons. Since 2014, teams that score 6 points or less have covered 56.3% of their next game's 1st half.
➤New era, same issues? The Steelers have struggled with the Patriots lately; they are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS vs. New England dating back to 2013, with Pittsburgh’s last win outright on the road against the Patriots coming back in 2008, with a 0-4 SU/ATS mark since then.
➤Steelers are playing different this year. Pittsburgh’s first two games of the regular season have both gone over the total for the first time since 2018. So far, it has also turned in a 0-2 ATS start. The Steelers haven’t started a season 0-3 ATS since 2013.
➤Rodgers has made two career starts on the road in New England, and he is 0-2 SU/ATS – the Patriots and Colts are the only two places Rodgers is 0-2 SU and ATS or worse on the road.
➤We know the history behind Tomlin as an underdog, but what about Tomlin in night games, especially on the road? Since 2022, in road games with a spread of 4 or less, the Steelers are 14-5 SU, making Tomlin the most profitable coach on the moneline in that span.
➤Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-30 SU and 5-27-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL. Just for reference, Mike Vrabel is now 3-16 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in this same spot as a head coach dating back to 2022.
➤In Drake Maye’s 14 starts last season for the Patriots, the over was 10-4 in those games, going over the total by 3.3 PPG. With totals of 40+, the over is 8-2 in Maye’s starts, both 4-1 at home and on the road.
➤Nothing new. For the 3rd time in the last five seasons, the Steelers open the second with consecutive games with under 75 rushing yards. They had 53 yards on 20 carries vs. the Jets and 72 yards on 21 carries vs. the Seahawks.
➤For Rodgers, there has been good and bad. Through two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has 5 passing TDs, tied for the third-most through two week in his career. His success rate is 38.6% so far this season, that would be the 2nd-lowest mark of his career at this point.
➤Rodgers needs to do enough for his defense. When the Steelers score 20 pts or more, they are 44-11 SU and 42-13 ATS since 2019, under that 20 mark, they are 15-35 SU/ATS.
➤Steelers have started slow in the first quarter since the start of last season, going 5-15 against the first quarter spread.
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➤We have a rematch. The Rams and Eagles faced off in Philly in the playoffs last year and now they go again at the same location. The duo of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford is just 9-14 ATS when facing a team after losing to them in their previous matchup, including 5-9 ATS outside of the NFC West. After beating an opponent in their previous matchup and facing them again, McVay is 46-30-3 ATS in his coaching career.
➤Rams have been a good second-half team so far. Stafford is 2-0 2H ATS to start the season for the first time since 2017. Overall, Stafford has finished below .500 against the second-half spread in 7 straight seasons entering this year. His biggest issue is with a lead, though. When Stafford’s team has a lead at the half, he is 9-29-1 2H ATS since 2019 and 2-16-1 2H ATS since 2022. The Rams have trailed at the half in both of their games this season.
➤The passing game hasn’t mattered much to Philly yet this season. They are 2-0 SU, and Hurts hasn’t thrown for more than 152 pass yards in either game. This is the third team to achieve this feat between 2024 and 2025. The Chargers and Steelers started similarly last year and both made the playoffs, but they lost in the Wild Card round. No team had started 2-0 that way between 2008 and 23.
Eagles just figure it out: in the 12 games Hurts has thrown for fewer than 130 pass yds, Philly is still 7-5 SU in those games.
➤Hurts’ average depth of target is just 6.0 this season, his lowest mark through two games since he became a full-time starter.
➤Raiders and Rams hit the road, going from the West Coast to the East Coast. In the first 5 games of the regular season since 2019, PST or MST road teams playing in EST are 45-14-2 ATS (76%), and they are 2-1 ATS so far this season.
➤Nobody likes an East Coast trip like Sean McVay. The Rams are 16-7-2 ATS on the road out east under him, covering the spread by 4.5 PPG.
➤Rams have covered the spread in five straight games entering Week 3, the longest active streak in the NFL. Under McVay, the Rams have never covered the spread in six straight games.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams; they are 32-9 SU when listed as favorites and only 9-16 SU as underdogs.
➤We’ve heard a lot of stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 points or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU. Overall, Sirianni is 27-2 SU and 19-8-2 ATS when leading by 7+ as a home favorite.
➤Jalen Hurts is tough to beat at home. He is 27-3 SU at home as a favorite in his career. When he faces a team above .500 SU at home in Philly, he is 17-0 SU as a favorite and 1-4 SU as an underdog.
➤Nothing represents the Jets more this week than a winless road underdog. Going back to 2000, winless road underdogs – teams who have no wins SU, who are listed as road underdogs – are 231-158-6 ATS (59.2%). This system includes a few other teams as well, including the Dolphins and the Saints.
➤The Jets' history of going to a backup QB is not pretty. In the last decade, New York has a 9-34 SU and 15-27-1 ATS record when facing a backup QB, including a 2-8 ATS streak since the 2023 season.
➤Forgetting the blowout, one of the bad Week 2 stats for the Jets was the fact that they went 0-11 on 3rd down. Last 20 years, teams who go 0-10 on 3rd down or worse are 4-13 SU and 6-11 ATS within the first 8 games of the regular season – Jets are the first team to even fall into this trend since the Jets in 2019.
➤This will be Baker Mayfield’s 11th start of short rest since 2020 – the one thing you can expect from a Baker-led team is points. In those previous ten starts, his teams scored 20 pts or more nine times, and overall, he is 6-4 ATS in those games.
➤Mayfield is 20-31-1 (39%) ATS as a favorite since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,216. Since he was drafted back in 2018, Mayfield is the third-least profitable QB ATS of 102 QBs, ahead of only Derek Carr and Russell Wilson. Mayfield has never finished a season above .500 ATS as a favorite.
➤After the Bucs covered as favorites in Week 1, Baker looks to start a season 2-0 ATS as a favorite for the first time in his career this week.
➤Teams after facing Buffalo since Allen’s 1st season as a full-time starter in 2019 are 43-58 SU (42%), when those teams are listed as an underdog after facing Buffalo, they are 13-39 SU.
➤Winless road underdogs, like Jets, Texans, Saint,s and Dolphins, cover 59% of games over the last two decades, including going 14-5 ATS since the start of last season.
➤When it comes to the road,I have to give it to Baker. He started his career 17-31 SU on the road, and after last week, he is 7-3 SU over the last two seasons. Not only that, as a member of the Bucs, he is 7-4 SU the game directly after winning on the road – no let down. With the Browns, Baker was 3-9 SU in this spot.
➤The Bucs are living on the edge. They are 2-0 SU, but they have also won both games in Weeks 1 and 2 by 3 pts or less. Since 2000, 15 teams have won in Weeks 1 and 2 by 3 pts or less in both games; they are 4-11 SU/ATS in their 3rd game, going 1-5 SU over the last decade.
➤We hear a lot about West Coast teams playing at 1 p.m. ET. There is some truth to it, at least for the Raiders, who are 34-71 SU in that spot since division realignment in 2002, but the Raiders have won two straight at 1 p.m. ET entering this week. In these early body clock games, the Raiders are 12-16 SU in September, too, making it easier to acclimate to.
➤Raiders and Rams hit the road, going from the West Coast to the East Coast. In the first 5 games of the regular season since 2019, PST or MST road teams playing in EST are 45-14-2 ATS (76%), and they are 2-1 ATS so far this season.
➤Commanders have played two games as favorites when coming off extended prep time with Jayden Daniels – Week 12 vs.the Cowboys last year. Closed -10.5 and lost outright. Week 15 at Saints. Closed -7.5 and won by just a point.
➤If Commanders close as favorites behind Marcus Mariota as their starter, it would be Mariota’s first start as a favorite since October and November of 2022 against PJ Walker (twice) and Justin Fields. Overall, Mariota is 11-20-2 ATS as a favorite in his career as a starter.
➤Mariota is 28-45-3 against the first-half spread in the NFL. Of 266 QBs since 2005, Mariota’s 1st half ATS mark is the 3rd-worst, ahead of just Jay Cutler and Kyler Murray. Mariota has never finished a season even .500 1H ATS in six seasons.
➤For just the second time as a head coach, Dan Quinn could have to start a backup QB this week – In 2019 with the Falcons, he had Matt Schaub come in for a game (lost 27-20, but covered +7.5).. Under Ron Rivera, Washington did very well with a slew of backups like Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke and Alex Smith, going 10-2-2 ATS.
➤Commanders went 1-3 on 4th down last week after not attempting a 4th down in Week 1 vs. the Giants. Commanders converted 87% of their 4th downs in 2024, the highest mark in history for a team with more than ten 4th down attempts on the season. Commanders have played just two games with Jayden Daniels after converting less than 50% of their 4th downs in their previous game – they are 0-2 SU/ATS.
➤Commanders put up a mark of 3.54 yards per offensive play against the Packers last week, their worst mark in a Jayden Daniels run offense.
➤Dan Quinn does not perform well with expectations. In his career as an NFL coach, he is 28-39 ATS as a favorite, but that may have been an issue for the past. With the Falcons, he was 20-35 ATS as a favorite, with the Commanders, he is 8-4 ATS in the role.
➤Raiders offense has a big hill to climb. Teams to play on the road after scoring no touchdowns in their previous games are 49-86 SU (36%) in the last decade. That drops to 26-76 SU (26%) when those road teams are also underdogs.
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➤Comebacks haven’t been a part of the Panthers' identity in recent years (it almost was last week). Carolina has lost 64 consecutive games outright when trailing by more than one possession (9 pts or more) at any point in the game. Their last win came in October of 2018, when Cam Newton led a comeback against Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Carolina is 0-60 SU in this spot since the start of the 2019 season; every other NFL team has at least three wins in this situation.
Since 2018, five teams have trailed by 24+ and ended up losing by 6 or less, like Carolina did last week; all five ended up winning their next game.
Raheem Morris has coached nine career games where his team opened up as the road favorite – he is 1-7-1 ATS in those games. Since 2003, that is the fewest covers for any coach as a road favorite with 7 or more ATS losses. When Raheem is a road favorite or an underdog of less than 3 pts on the road, he is 2-8-1 ATS, failing to cover by 9.4 PPG.
Raheem Morris-coached teams have lost five straight games ATS on a road trip – 2nd consecutive game or later on the road.
Overall, Morris has had a better history covering on the road vs. at home. He’s 21-17-1 ATS on the road and 12-25 ATS at home. His home mojo is so bad that when he plays on the road directly after a home game, his teams are 17-9-1 ATS.
Falcons have struggled in the red zone recently. Last week, they started the game 0-4 against the Vikings, before Minnesota let them score to end the game. In Week 1 they went just 1-2 in the red zone and last year, they finished 20th in the NFL at 54.7%.
Panthers home overs are 7-1 in their last 8 games dating back to late September of last season – that is the 2nd-best mark in the NFL in that span behind just the Dolphins, who are 7-0 to the over in their home games.
Bryce Young, in his 30 career starts, is 10-20 against the first-half spread. Bryce has made 11 starts against the NFC South while with the Panthers, and he is 3-8 1H ATS in those games, failing to cover in the 1H by 3.5 PPG.
Where Bryce has struggled the most in the first half is in games his team should be competitive in – as either a favorite or an underdog of 3 pts or less on the full game spread, he is 0-4 1H ATS, and when the line is +4 or less, he is 3-9 1H ATS.
The Falcons have never been able to produce a QB who covers the spread. Since 2003, Atlanta has had 13 QBs start a game for them; only two are above .500 ATS, and barely.
Best ATS Win Pct – Falcons QBs Since 2003
Michael Vick – 26-24-2 ATS
Marcus Mariota – 7-6 ATS
➤For a QB who has historically struggled in the first half, Trevor Lawrence is 2-0 1H ATS this season, outscoring Carolina and Cincinnati 37-13 in the first half. Prior to this start, Lawrence was 26-36 1H ATS in his career.
➤Two ways to look at this. Trevor Lawrence has covered the spread in three straight home games – he’s never covered 4 straight home games in his pro career. In Lawrence’s career, he’s started 12 home games as either a favorite or a dog of 2 pts or less, he is 3-9 ATS in those games, including 0-3 ATS vs. Texans.
➤Texans enter this game on a 3-game ATS losing streak against the Jaguars – in their franchise history, which dates back to 2002, Houston has never lost 4 consecutive games ATS vs. Jacksonville. In four starts vs. Jaguars, CJ Stroud is covering the spread by 5.8 PPG, though, and is 3-1 SU vs. Jacksonville.
Dating back to 2011, the Texans are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS on the road or neutral site against the Jaguars.
➤Stroud has made 38 starts in his NFL caree,r and he is 11-7 ATS as an underdog and 7-13 ATS as a favorite. When Stroud starts a “toss-up” road game – a road game with a spread of 4 or less in either direction, he is 4-8 ATS, the least profitable QB ATS in that spot since he was drafted.
➤Stroud has made six career starts within the first two games of the regular season, and he is 0-6 ATS. As of now, he is 18-14 ATS in game 3 or later. Let’s see if he can keep that up.
➤Texans played on Monday Night Football last week, which puts Houston on a short week. Stroud has made five career starts when on extended prep, the Texans are 4-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 6 PPG.
➤In 2024, underdogs in the AFC South went 11-1 ATS, and since 2019, they are 45-27 ATS (63%), best of any division.
➤Through two games, the Jaguars' defense has six total takeaways, the most in the NFL. The Jaguars played ten total games last season, where their defense didn’t force a single turnover, most in the NFL.
➤Texans may have covered the second-half spread, winning 9-6, against the Bucs last week, but Stroud’s 2H performance hasn’t been any better. His 68.4 passer rating in 2H is 4th-lowest among
➤So far this season, the Texans are 0-3 in terms of scoring TDs in the red zone, the only team in the NFL without a touchdown inside the 20 – the Raiders and Giants both only have one score in the red zone.
➤Chargers have beaten the Broncos both SU and ATS in their last two meetings. You have to go all the way back to 2011 for their last 3-game SU win streak vs. Denver.
➤Broncos defense got torched last week by the Colts and Daniel Jones, allowing 29 points in the loss. Under Sean Payton, Denver is just 3-5 ATS in games after allowing 29+ points. With the Saints, Payton’s team was 41-23 ATS after having a poor defensive outing.
Dating back to 2017, Denver is just 8-19 ATS in the game after allowing 29+ pts in their previous game.
➤The Broncos are entering this game on the road already 0-2 ATS this season after not covering in Week 1 vs. the Titans.
As a head coach of the Saints and Broncos, Sean Payton is now 12-24 ATS in the first two games of the regular season – that is the worst mark for any head coach since 2003. Then the adjustments start for Payton. In the 3rd game, his team is 12-5 ATS, covering by 3.4 PPG. In the 4th game, he is 12-4-1 ATS, for a 24-9-1 ATS mark games 3-4 of the season.
➤Bo Nix started his career 11-3 ATS in his first 14 starts, Denver was on top of the world. Then they faced the Chargers in late December last year. Since that game, Nix is 1-5 ATS, losing to the Chargers SU/ATS.
In Bo Nix’s 19 career regular-season starts, he is 18-1 in a 6-point teaser, with his only loss coming against the Ravens last year.
➤Chargers played at night in primetime in Weeks 1 and 2. Since realignment in 2002, teams to play in consecutive night games within the first 6 weeks of the regular season are just 21-29 ATS in their next game, including 1-7 ATS since 2023.
➤Chargers start off the season 2-0, with both games coming inside the division. Now, the Chargers face the Broncos, another divisional opponent. L.A. is set to become the 8th team to start the season with three straight division games over the last 20 years. Teams in that 3rd game are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10.4 PPG.
➤Jim Harbaugh is 13-6-2 ATS in September, going .500 ATS or better in each of his seasons as a coach in the NFL. One step further, Harbaugh is 27-10-2 ATS in September and October in the NFL.
➤Justin Herbert has made 83 career starts in the NFL. He is 43-40 SU, 46-35-2 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 35-12 SU, 35-10-2 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 8-28 SU, 11-25 ATS.
Herbert ATS by head coach with the Chargers:
Jim Harbaugh – 14-5-1 ATS
Anthony Lynn – 8-7 ATS
Brandon Staley – 24-23-1 ATS
➤In his career, Justin Herbert is 19-9-1 ATS vs. the AFC West – since he was drafted, that mark is the best of any QB in the NFL. Since the start of last season, Herbert is 7-0-1 ATS vs. the AFC West.
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➤Spencer Rattler has now made eight career NFL starts and has yet to find a win, 0-8 SU. Rattler’s last win in CFB or NFL came against Kentucky on November 18th, 2023. If Rattler wants to start making history, he’ll need two more losses. Here is the list of players to start 0-10 SU since 1990.
- DeShone Kizer 15
- Stan Gelbaugh 11
- Derek Carr 10
- Zach Mettenberger 10
- Brodie Croyle 10
➤Seahawks were 2-7 ATS at home last season, failing to cover the spread by 3.7 PPG, their worst home season ATS since 2004 (1-8 ATS). For what once was a place where cover dreams went to die, Seattle is just 13-22 ATS at home since 2021, 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons (11-23 ATS) and Saints (12-22 ATS).
➤The Saints have gone under .500 ATS in three straight seasons entering this year, which is tied with the Patriots for the longest active streak for any team in the NFL. Through two games, the Saints are 0-2 ATS. To prove just how much of an outlier last year was for New Orleans, their 2-0 ATS start in 2024 was their only one since 2009.
➤Since the start of 2023, the Saints have played 19 games where they trailed entering the 4th quarter. They are 0-19 SU and 2-17 ATS (full game) in those situations, the only winless team SU in the NFL. Their last win came in Week 1 of 2022. Overall, the Saints have lost 24 straight games when trailing entering the 4th; the last win was Week 1 of 2022. Since the start of the 2020 season, New Orleans is 2-34 SU and 5-31 ATS in this spot.
➤Sam Darnold has been favored by 7 pts or more three times in his career, but this week is getting close to his biggest favorite of his career.
-8, CAR at HOU, W 24-9
-7, MIN vs. CHI, W 30-12
-7, MIN at JAC, W 12-7
Darnold has closed -6 or higher six times as a starter, and he is 6-0 SU in those games (5-1 ATS).
➤The travel has been tough on Seattle. Since the start of 2023, the Seahawks are 2-9 ATS at home when they had to play on the road in their previous game, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
➤The Bears and Cowboys have faced off eight times in the last 20 years, and the over is 8-0 in those games, going over the total by 13.7 PPG. One of the two teams has scored 30+ pts in their meetings in 7 of the eight games.
➤Another Bears loss last week, now 0-2 SU this season. Since 2021, Chicago has been 6-33 SU as underdogs against NFC opponents. But, they are 8-3 SU as favorites in that span, which could bode well this week.
➤The Bears have gone under their win total now in four straight seasons, the longest active under streak in the NFL. Since 2019, the Bears have a 5-0-1 record against their win total, with their last over coming in 2018 under Mitch Trubisky. Dating back to 2013, the Bears are 10-1-1 to their win total under.
➤Dak Prescott’s success against the NFC East is well noted, but he hasn’t had much of a hangover either. After facing a divisional opponent, he is 29-11 SU in his next game, including 11-3 SU after facing the Giants, having won six in a row.
➤The Brandon Aubrey effect. Since 2023, he is 27-30 (90%) on 50+ yard field goals – the most makes and attempts from 50+. Kickers outside of Aubrey are hitting 50+ yard fields at about a 69% rate since 2023.
➤Sacks were a problem for Caleb Williams and the Bears last year. In total, Caleb was sacked 68 times in his first season, tied for the 3rd-most ever since sacks were recorded in 1982. In games where Caleb was sacked 4+ times, the Bears are 0-8 SU after last week.
➤Dak does well vs. bad teams. He’s 39-12 SU (77%) vs. teams under .500 SU in his career, winning those games by 10.1 PPG. When Dak faces a team that just lost by more than one possession (9+ pts), he is 24-6 SU in those games, including 14-3 SU since 2020.
➤Caleb Williams has started seven career NFL games in the afternoon or primetime window (4 p.m. ET or later), and the Bears are 0-7 SU in those games, losing those seven games by an average of 11.1 PPG. In that same span, no other QB has more than three losses without a SU win in this window. In the 23-year history of the Bet Labs database, three QBs are 0-7 SU or worse at 4 p.m. ET or later: Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Davis Mills
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➤In his coaching career with the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan is 7-9 SU vs. the Cardinals, losing a $100 bettor $557 on the moneyline, making Arizona his least profitable opponent SU as a head coach. From an ATS perspective, he’s 6-9-1 ATS, including 2-5-1 ATS at home.
➤The 49ers have lost five consecutive home games ATS vs. NFC West opponents, and in his coaching career, Shanahan is 9-14-1 ATS at home vs. his own division.
➤San Francisco continues with Mac Jones and the backup QB with Kyle Shanahan. After the win against the Saints, he is 27-23 SU/ATS with a backup QB while with the 49ers. When that backup is still listed as the favorite, SF is 18-9 SU and 15-12 ATS in those games under Shanahan.
➤Throughout his entire career, Kyler Murray has been consistent in covering the spread as an underdog. He is 32-17-2 ATS as a dog in his career, the best mark of any QB since he was drafted. Kyler has a .500 ATS or better record as an underdog in all six of his NFL seasons.
➤As a starter for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is 8-20 SU against the NFC West. When Kyler and Arizona are coming off a SU win before facing a divisional team, they are 4-9 SU, losing six straight with their last win coming in 2021.
➤49ers have the opportunity to start 3-0 ATS with a cover vs. Cardinals this week –San Francisco hasn’t started 3-0 ATS since 2009 – their only 3-0 ATS start over the last 40 years.
➤Who can cover early?
We saw a good Mac Jones performance last week, covering the first half and full game. Since 2022, Mac Jones is 12-20-1 against the first-half spread, the 3rd-worst mark for 100 QBs in the NFL. Since the start of 2022, Mac has covered ten first halves where there was another game left to be played after it in that same season; he is 0-9-1 1H ATS in those games.
Kyler has covered the first-half spread in Weeks 1 and 2. Kyler hasn’t covered three straight first halves in any situation since October of 2021 – in that span of games, Kyler is 15-31 1H ATS, worst mark of 109 QBs in the NFL.
➤One issue San Francisco has had is in the second halves. Since the start of last season, they are 3-16 against the 2nd half spread, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
➤Mac Jones has yet to play when trailing this year. Last year, he had 181 pass attempts when trailing for the Jaguars – he had 5 TD passes and 7 INT with a 77.9 passer rating (3rd-worst mark for QBs with 181+ attempts). In 2023, Mac had 7 TD and nine picks, trailing with a 76.5 passer rating.
➤This will be the 5th night game where winless teams will meet in the 3rd game or later of the regular season, dating back to 2000. In the previous four instances, the favorite won outright.
- 2020, Broncos/Jets
- 2019, Steelers/Bengals
- 2002, Falcons/Bengals
- 2001, Cowboys/Commanders
➤The Jets and Giants have played a combined 38 night games since the start of the 2019 season. They are a combined 5-33 SU in those games. Looking at the Giants themselves, they are 2-19 SU in night games since 2019, including going 0-3 SU last year.
Since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 1-11 SU in night games at MetLife Stadium.
➤Chiefs are 0-2 SU for the first time since 2014, and Patrick Mahomes has lost three straight for the first time since his sophomore year at Texas Tech.
➤Chiefs are on to Week 3. Under Andy Reid, KC is 9-3 ATS in Week 3; they are just 13-13 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2. It’s adjustment time for Reid, who is 16-7-1 ATS in Weeks 3 and 4 with the Chiefs.
➤Since 2022, Mahomes is 12-18 ATS at home, the 3rd-worst mark for any QB in the NFL. When he plays on the road or at a neutral site, he has a respectable 16-13-2 ATS record.
➤When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat. KC is 64-7 SU (90%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 29-0 SU in the last three seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. the Bengals. On the other side, KC has lost five straight games when trailing at the end of the first quarter, their longest streak since 2015.
➤Since the start of 2023, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 30-13 (70%), going under the total in that 2H by 4 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
➤In Mahomes’ career, he has faced 19 NFC teams who are .500 or worse SU on the season, KC is 18-1 SU in those games, with his only loss coming on the road in Green Bay back in 2023.
➤In the first two months of the regular season (Sept-Oct), the under is 15-1 in Giants home games since 2021, 21-2 since 2019 and 26-4 since 2017.
➤Chiefs have now lost five consecutive games outright when trailing by 7+ points at any point in the game – you have to go all the way back to 2014-15 to find the last time KC lost five straight games in this trailing spot. Since the start of 2018, the Chiefs are 46-26 SU (65%) when trailing by 7+ points at any point in the game – by far the best mark in the NFL.
➤Since 2021, the over is 11-1 when Mahomes starts on the road in night games, going over the ttal by above a TD per game.
➤The Ravens own the longest active streak as a betting favorite, with this week's streak being up to 21 games. Their last game as an underdog came back in Week 1 of last season vs. the Chiefs.
➤In the last two regular seasons, the Ravens are 25-11 to their team total over, the best mark for any team in the NFL. If you just look at this year and last year, in Lamar Jackson’s 21 starts, the over in the full game is 16-5, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤A good spot here for Baltimore…
At home in either the afternoon or night game window, Lamar Jackson is 15-3 SU and 11-7 ATS in his career.
At home in night games, John Harbaugh is 23-4 SU (15-12 ATS) as coach of the Ravens. In November or earlier, Harbaugh is 19-1 SU in this spot.
Lamar has played 26 total games vs. the NFC in his career, and he is 24-2 SU but just 13-12-1 ATS. Oddly enough, his two losses have come against the NFC East, while he is 3-0 SU vs. the NFC North.
➤Lions throttled the Bears last week, winning by 31 points. Most spots would tell you time to fade Detroit, but under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 16-4 ATS in their game directly after winning by 11+ points in their previous game – foot on the pedal.
➤Jared Goff has made 37 starts at night in primetime in his pro career. He is 21-5 SU as a favorite and 3-8 SU as an underdog.
➤Ravens bring a juggernaut offense to the table against the Lions this week. Goff and Campbell have faced an opponent averaging 28+ PPG on the season 11 times. They started their tenure 7-0 SU, they are 1-3 SU since the beginning of last season, losing to the Commanders, Bills and Bucs.
➤Ravens put up 40+ points in both Weeks 1 and 2 – they join the Saints last year, Packers in 2020, Broncos in 2013, and Saints in 2009 to accomplish that in the Wild Card era.
➤The narrative behind Goff indoors and outdoors exists, but sometimes can be overblown. In Goff’s career, he has started nine outdoor games where his team closed +200 or higher on the moneyline, which is close to the line for Week 3 – Goff’s team is 0-8-1 SU in those games, losing by 15.7 PPG.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Looking for winless road underdogs for this system.
Matches: MIA, NO, HOU, NYJ
System: Keep an eye out for high wind games this upcoming weekend.
Matches: Check current lines.
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System: Betting the bad of the bad.
Matches: CHI
System: Have to keep running this back. Extended rest unders.
Matches: BAL/DET
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System: Don't worry about early road trips. This is 4-0 ATS so far this season.
Matches: DEN, ATL, LAR
