We were waiting for the "Revenge of the Underdogs" and it happened in Week 5. At 9-5 straight up for dogs, it was a historical week a season or two in the making,
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 6 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Oct. 7, at 5 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know

Revenge of the Dogs
A Week to Remember
For just the 3rd time in the last decade, three underdogs of over a TD won outright in a single week with the 49ers, Titans and Patriots. In Week 5, underdogs went 9-5 straight up — the most outright wins by dogs in a single week since Week 3 of 2022 and dogs had not gone 9-5 SU or better in a single week since 2017.
- Since 2000, there have been only three weeks before Week 10 which had 3+ underdogs of over a TD win outright: 2025 Wk5, 2023 Wk3, 2002 Wk4.
- This was the 4th week since 2000 to have 3+ underdogs of over a TD win outright and have those dogs of over a TD finish above .500 SU the same week: 2025 WK5, 2023 Wk3, 2015 Wk10, 2002 Wk4.
NFL closing favorites of 6 pts or more entered Week 5, 16-2-1 SU this season — that was the fewest outright losses by 6+ favorites through four games since 1979. Dating back to Week 13 of last year, these 6+ pt favorites were on a 56-6-1 SU (90.3%) stretch.
We had three upsets of 6+ points in Week 5. We only had two in Weeks 1-4 and we only had six of those upsets in the previous ten weeks plus the playoffs.

NFC Domination
Great Start
Through five weeks, the NFC is 18-9 ATS in its 27 games vs. the AFC this season. The NFC is .500 ATS or better in all five weeks of the year.
That 18-9 ATS mark is the 2nd-best for either conference through five games in the Wild Card era (since 1990). We have six NFC vs. AFC matchups this week:
- Lions at Chiefs
- Rams at Ravens
- Saints vs. Patriots
- Packers vs. Bengals
- Seahawks at Jaguars
- Falcons vs. Bills

Week of the Bounce Back
Week 5 Chaos
The Eagles lost. The Chiefs lost. The Bills lost. Even the Ravens lost, even though they are without Lamar Jackson.
In the last 15 years, we had not seen a week where four teams with win totals of 11 or higher all lost outright … till last week. Even if you remove the Ravens, we had only seen three such teams lose outright in a single week once in that span — back in Week 15 of 2011.

Public Humiliation
Rough Start
According to Action Network betting data, teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 13-30 ATS through five weeks. Through five weeks, that is the worst ATS mark for those public bettors in the 23-year history of our database. In the last two seasons, teams with 60%+ of tickets went 30-57-1 ATS (35%) in the first five weeks of the year.
Teams with 70%+ tickets this season are 3-13 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when those teams are at home.

Emptying The Notebook
Best of the Best
Some of my favorite notes of the week:
- Only two QBs are 3-0 ATS or better as a favorite this season: Daniel Jones and Jared Goff.
- As above, a 4-pt favorite on the road, Sean McVay and the Rams are 16-0 SU.
- Home teams off of a bye week are 109-138-9 (44%) dating back to 2011. In October and November for these byes playing at home, they are 70-96-6 ATS (42%). This week that is the Packers, Falcons and Steelers.
- …and of course the Lions:
Jared Goff has 49 regular season covers since 2021 (last 5 years), no other QB in the NFL has even 40 entering Week 6.
How dominant have the Lions been ATS? The Lions are 51-21-1 ATS (70.8%) in the regular season since 2021. If you remove 7 Lions points from each and every one of those 73 regular season games, Detroit would be 28-44-1 ATS – in that same span, the Jets are 29-43-1 ATS and the Falcons are 28-43-1 ATS, worst two records in the NFL.
Every NFL Game For Week 6
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➤ This series has leaned under recently. Under is 10-4 in their last fourteen meetings dating back to 2018, including three straight unders and 5 of the last six meetings going under the total.
➤ Jalen Hurts has started 12 career games on the road against the NFC East and he is just 6-6 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in those games. Against non-divisional opponents on the road, Hurts just has one more loss than he does vs. the NFC East, at 19-7 SU.
In night games, Hurts is 11-5 SU when playing at home or neutral site and just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road.
➤ The Eagles have faced the Giants in primetime eleven times dating back to 2009 – Philly is 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in those games, with the under 8-3, too.
Last Giants QB to win in primetime against the Eagles was Eli Manning against Donovan McNabb in Novmeber of 2008.
➤ Home teams on a Thursday are under .500 ATS in 6 of the last 7 seasons, overall they are 49-61-1 ATS since 2019, including 44-54-1 ATS at home at night in that span.
➤ Not often the Eagles are coming off of a loss, and that a loss off a big blown lead, which hasn’t happened lately.
- This will be just Jalen Hurts’ 21st game off a Eagles SU loss – and Philly is just 10-10 SU and 7-13 ATS. When Hurts’ faces a divisional opponent off a loss, he is just 2-5 SU.
- Eagles blew a 14-pt lead entering the 4th quarter last week vs. Broncos. In the Hurts era, this is just the 2nd time they’ve blown a lead of more than one possession entering the 4th quarter – they did so against the Commanders in 2024 when Hurts got hurt, was replaced by Kenny Pickett. Philly came back and won 41-7 vs. Giants in their next game.
- Under Nick Sirianni, Eagles have allowed 6+ sacks four times now after Week 5 and they are 3-0 SU in their next game, winning by 14 PPG.
Tough to rebound: Teams after blowing a lead of more than one possession (9+ pts) entering the 4th quarter at home are just 12-22 SU in their next game over the last decade.
➤ The Jets and Giants have played a combined 40 night games since the start of the 2019 season. They are a combined 5-35 SU in those games. Looking at the Giants themselves, they are 2-20 SU in night games since 2019, including 1-12 SU in night games at MetLife Stadium.
➤ QBs within their first three career starts are 9-22 SU having to play night games since 2020. At home, they are just 2-9 SU in that span.
➤ Giants are now 1-2 SU/ATS without Malik Nabers over the last two seasons. Giants have scored 29, 7 and 14 total points in those three games
In the three games without Nabers, only one player has had more than 60 receiving yards in any of the games – Darius Slayton with 8 for 122 and a TD vs. Seahawks last year.
➤ The 4th quarter has been an issue for Philly. They are 1-4 against the 4th quarter spread this season. Last year, Philly was 13-8 4Q ATS on the season.
➤ Saquon Barkley continued his downward trend in Week 5…
Saquon Barkley rushing yards:
- Week 1: 88
- Week 2: 60
- Week 3: 46
- Week 4: 43
- Week 5: 30
This season, Barkley is averaging 2.65 yards per carry in the second half with the 2nd-most carries behind just JK Dobbins. Last year, Barkley led the NFL in second half carries and he was averaging 6.7 yards per carry – a full four-yard difference.
➤ Sean Payton has coached in two NFL International games, both with the Saints, and he is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, covering the spread by 12 PPG. With a cover on Sunday, Payton would be the only 3-0 ATS or better head coach in overseas regular season games.
➤ A few facts and trends from the 52 total international games – including, with 26 unders and 26 overs, totals are exactly even entering this week in overseas matchups during the regular season.
Here's a breakdown by stadium:
- Wembley: 14-12 to the under
- Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
- Allianz: 2-0 to the under
- Corinthians: 2-0 to the over
- Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
- Azteca: 3-2 to the over
- Tottenham: 7-4 to the over (location of DEN/NYJ this week)
- Croke Park: 1-0 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games.
- They are 37-14-1 SU and 33-19 ATS.
- Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
- Favorites at Tottenham are 5-6 ATS. All other international stadiums: 28-12 ATS.
- Favorites of a FG or more overseas are 27-9-1 SU, 23-14 ATS.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
- 60%+: 22-16 ATS
- 66%+: 15-10 ATS
- 70%+: 9-3 ATS
➤ Jets enter this overseas trip 0-5 SU this season…
Since 2017, we’ve had eight teams play an international game with a win pct of 20% or less – the Jaguars have been the participant in 3 of those 8 games and they are 2-1 SU/ATS. The other 5 teams went 0-5 SU/ATS.
Since 2019, we’ve only had six favorites of 6+ pts in an International Series game and they are just 3-3 SU in those games.
Jets will be the 7th 0-5 SU or worse team to play in an overseas matchup, those teams are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, with the only win coming from the Jaguars in 2021.
➤ Aaron Glenn takes his team overseas this week to play in London. This will be Glenn’s first game coached in the International Series as a rookie head coach.
Glenn will be the 17th rookie head coach to take his team overseas for an International Series game, not facing a rookie head coach on the other sideline. The rookie head coaches are actually above .500 SU, going 9-7 SU, including winning 6 of their last 7 games SU, four of which listed as underdogs.
➤ Jets come to London off a home game. Broncos off a road game in Philly. Teams coming overseas from a home game, facing a team off the road are just 10-13 ATS, including 1-8 ATS as underdogs, failing to cover the spread by 8.4 PPG.
➤ Bo Nix has made 23 career starts in the NFL and he is 9-2 ATS as a favorite and 5-7 ATS as an underdog.
In those 11 games as a favorite, Nix is covering the spread by 11.5 PPG, where he is 11-0 in a 6-point teaser as a favorite.
The one thing Nix always does well is not to get blown out. He is 21-2 in a 6-pt teaser in his 23 career starts, covering in a 6-pt tease in his last 13 regular season starts.
➤ Through four weeks, the Jets are the only team without a turnover on defense. No NFL franchise since 1933 has gone five games to start the season without at least one takeaway.
Just looking at Justin Fields as a starting QB, his teams are 2-16 SU when his defense doesn’t force a turnover – a stat you would assume for most QBs without any help from their defense.
➤ Justin Fields has made 48 starts in his NFL career. He is 14-34 SU in those starts. When his opponent scores more than 20 pts, Fields’ teams are 0-26 SU (6-19-1 ATS), when they score 20 pts or less Fields is 14-8 SU (13-9 ATS).
➤ Aaron Glenn is 0-5 SU to start his career as the Jets head coach, the first coach in Jets history with that many losses before a win to start their coaching career with New York.
Glenn is 2-3 ATS with the Jets so far. There have been nine different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
➤ The cardiac Cardinals have had a tough go of it. They have lost three straight games by 3 pts or less – since 2013, we’ve only seen nine teams lose three straight games by 3 pts or less, those teams are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their next game – tough stretch continued for most.
➤ We have another dome vs. dome matchup this week, with both teams playing in for the most part an indoor stadium. Since 2020, when two dome teams play, the under is 87-72 (55%), a bit contrary to what most would assume, including 27-11 since the start of last season.
➤ Kyler Murray and the Cardinals aren’t a big favorite often, but they were last week. Kyler is just 2-7 SU the week after being listed as a favorite of 6 pts or more, losing five straight dating back to 2021.
➤ Kyler and the Cardinals covered the first half spread last week, it was the second half spread that was the problem.
In Kyler’s career, he is a respectable 19-23 1H ATS on the road, but since the start of the 2022 season, he is 4-14 1H ATS on the road, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL.
➤ Cardinals and Colts have faced off eight times since 1990 in the Wild Card era and the under is 7-1 in those 8 games, going under the total by almost 7 PPG.
➤ The Kyler Murray home vs. road splits when it comes to totals are drastic. When he starts on the road, the under is 28-13-1 (68%), 2nd-best mark of 280 QBs since 2003. When he starts at home, the ver is 27-18, the 4th-best mark of 122 QBs since he was drafted.
➤ Throughout his entire career, Kyler Murray has been consistent in covering the spread as an underdog. He is 33-18-2 ATS as a dog in his career, the best mark of any QB since he was drafted. Kyler has a .500 ATS or better record as an underdog in all six of his NFL seasons.
➤ For the first time since Week 10, 2022, two teams in the same week lost a game up 14+ pts entering the 4th quarter.
Cardinals led the Titans 21-6 entering the 4th quarter and lost outright to Tennessee. In the last 35 years, only 27 teams have played on the road after blowing a 14+ point lead entering the 4th, they are 10-17 SU and 11-16 ATS, with the over 18-9 in those games.
Tough to rebound: Teams after blowing a lead of more than one possession (9+ pts) entering the 4th quarter at home are just 12-22 SU in their next game over the last decade.
➤ Daniel Jones is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season, which matches his career high in ATS wins as a favorite in a single season. Jones was 5-9 ATS as a favorite entering this season.
Only two QBs are 3-0 ATS or better as a favorite this season: Jones and Jared Goff.
➤ Cardinals fell flat on their faces vs. Titans last week. Teams after facing the Titans are now 33-20-2 ATS since 2022, best mark for any prior opponent in the NFL in that span after the Texans demolished the Ravens in Baltimore.
➤ Justin Herbert doesn’t mind a good road trip. He’s 13-6 ATS in all games played in EST, including 20-11 ATS in EST or CST, which is the 4th-best mark in the NFL since he was drafted behind Goff, Burrow and Kyler. Herbert has been great on the road or neutral spot, going 27-17 ATS in his career, including 12-6 ATS in September and October.
➤ Over the last three seasons, the Chargers are 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS in games decided by 3 pts or less – they are 1-1 SU this year, 0-9 SU in 2023 and 2024.
➤ Chargers are traveling from California to Miami to face the Dolphins. Over the last decade, teams to travel to face the Dolphins in Miami after playing at home are just 19-33 SU (37%), the 5th-least profitable city in that span. Bottom of the list looks like: BUF, BAL, PHI, GB, MIA.
➤ The Dolphins are 0-5 against the 4th quarter spread so far this season after blowing a 17-0 lead to the Panthers last week.
Finishing at home in Miami has been an issue. Since 2022, the Dolphins are 10-17 4Q ATS, finishing .500 or worse in 2022, 2023, 2024 and they are 0-2 4Q ATS at home entering this game.
➤ From a record standpoint, the difference between Tua at home and on the road is drastic. On the road or neutral site, Tua is 13-20 SU, including 1-8 SU in his last 9 starts. At home, Tua is 26-9 SU in his career. Of Tua’s 35 career home starts, he’s only faced a team above .500 seven times (20%). Tua is 4-3 SU in those games with a negative SU margin.
➤ The 2nd half bug got the Chargers last week again. They led 10-0 after the 1st quarter and were outscored 27-0 the rest of the way.
Chargers are 1-4 against the 2nd half spread this season. In Justin Herbert’s six-year career, he has never finished above .500 2H ATS – he is 28-53-5 2H ATS (35%) in his career. Of the 259 QBs last 20 years, Herbert is ranked 258th in 2H ATS ahead of just Matthew Stafford.
➤ No Omarion Hampton for a few weeks. No Najee Harris for the season. The Chargers' running game is not down for the count. L.A. is 7th in yards per carry, but if you look at rush EPA and rush success rate, the Chargers are just 18th in both categories.
➤ Over/under in this game is hovering around 37, in Aaron Rodgers’ 266 career starts, this is the 2nd-lowest total. In 2008 against the Vikings and Tarvaris Jackson, the total closed at 37. In Week 1 at the Jets this year, that total closed at 38, which was the 2nd-lowest O/U of his career.
Lowest O/U Aaron Rodgers’ Career
- 37 – 2008 vs. MIN (W, 24-19)
- 37.5 – 2025 vs. CLE
- 38 – 2025 at NYJ (W, 34-32)
➤ Browns have lost 21 consecutive regular-season games in Pittsburgh. Their last win came back in October of 2003 behind Tim Couch.
Dillon Gabriel will be the 15th different QB to try and break this streak since it started in 2003 after Couch’s win.
➤ After Gabriel’s loss to the Vikings last week, 17 consecutive Browns QBs have lost their first career start – the last winner? Eric Zeier in 1995.
The question of “does it get any better” … well sort of. Browns QBs are 5-11 SU in their 2nd career start for Cleveland since 1990, but since 2008, they are 5-4 SU in nine starts.
➤ The in-season bye has done the Steelers well lately. They have won and covered five straight off the bye since 2020, including going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS off of the regular season bye since 2017. Steelers only loss of a full bye in that span was in the playoffs to the Jaguars in 2017-18.
Their last regular season outright loss off a bye came in 2016 on the road in Baltimore – Ben Roethlisberger vs. Joe Flacco.
The early bye has done the Steelers well, too. Under Tomlin, they are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS when their game off a bye happens in their first eight games of the regular season, winning nine in a row since his rookie season as a head coach.
➤ Browns return from London, without a bye week in between. Cleveland will be the 25th team to return to the states without a bye after playing an International game. Those teams are actually 15-9 SU and 13-11 ATS on the short rest situation.
But the Browns are unique. They are on the road. Of those 24 previous teams, only one didn’t play at home. 2017 Jaguars on the road vs. Jets, a game they lost 23-20 in overtime.
➤ As a favorite of 4 pts or more, Tomlin is 12-26-1 ATS since 2017, the least profitable coach in the NFL. Even when Tomlin is on extended prep time in that span (more than a full week), he is 5-8-1 ATS.
➤ Since 2007, Mike Tomlin’s first season in Pittsburgh, 36 first-year QBs have started against the Steelers in the regular season. They are 6-30 SU. When the Steelers are at home, they are 16-1 SU, with their only loss coming to the Cowboys and Dak Prescott back in 2016.
➤Dillon Gabriel was the 41st different starting QB the Browns have had since returning to the NFL in 1999 — most in the NFL over that span.
Since 2003, only one Browns QB is above .500 SU for the franchise with a minimum of three starts for the team: Brian Hoyer at 10-6 SU.
➤ Patriots are coming off the massive upset win of the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football last week.
Teams coming off an upset of over a TD (+7.5 or more) in a night game are 21-17 SU and 20-16-2 ATS since 2002 – respectable. When they are listed as favorites, 12-4 SU and 9-6-1 ATS.
After winning outright as a dog of 3+, Vrabel is 13-9 ATS in his next game. After beating a division opponent, he is 12-8 ATS. Solid all around.
➤ Mike Vrabel, as an underdog, has been a heck of a bet…
+4 or higher: 15-12 SU (+103% ROI)
+6 or higher: 9-8 SU (119% ROI)
Vrabel is the only coach above .500 SU as a 4+ pt dog in the last 25 years (min 10+ games). The question is how he does after pulling an upset. After an upset of +4 or higher, his teams are 9-5 ATS in their next game.
➤ Road trips can bring about camaraderie, at least that’s what I’ll say about this. Since 2018, teams in the middle of a road trip – road game behind them, road game ahead of them still – are 29-12 SU and 28-13 ATS, with those games 28-13 to the under in that span. This week that is the Patriots and Ravens.
➤ Spencer Rattler finally got off the schnied, getting his first career win last week.
Of the five other QBs to start 0-10 SU or worse, three never actually ended up winning a game, one never started another game at QB again after the win and then Derek Carr, who lost 52-0 in his next start.
➤ One of the Saints strengths this season is their rush defense. 9th in rush EPA and in 4 of 5 games holding the opposing backs' leading rusher under 70 yards.
➤ After Drake Maye’s four other outright wins before last week, Patriots are 1-3 against the first half spread, and their one 1H ATS win they scored just 6 pts (last week vs. Bills).
➤ Spencer Rattler has 6 TD passes and 1 INT this year through five games while completing 67% of his passes. In Saints history, two QBs have 6 TD or more, 1 INT or less with a 67%+ completion pct through five games: 2025 Spencer Rattler and 2018 Drew Brees.
➤ Cowboys first road trip of the season. In Dak’s career, he’s started 18 games on a road trip (2nd consecutive road game or later) and he is 12-5-1 ATS in those games, including 9-1 ATS in the first three months of the season and 5-0 ATS in September and October.
On the other end, Bryce Young has started five games on a homestand, he is 4-1 ATS, but more importantly, Carolina is averaging 25.8 PPG in those five matchups.
➤ The Panthers are 5-0 against the 4th quarter spread this season after beating Miami 14-7 last week enroute to their 17-point comeback.
Carolina broke a 65-game losing streak when trailing by more than one possession at any point in the game, their last win before last week came in 2018.
➤ Chaos might get to you. Since 2003, teams averaging 400+ yards on both offense and defense 6+ games into the season are 39-50-3 ATS, including 26-40 ATS when listed as the favorite.
➤ Dak does well vs. bad teams. He’s 40-13 SU (76%) and 33-18-2 ATS (65%) vs. teams under .500 SU in his career, winning those games by 9.7 PPG.
Last week, Dak faced the Jets, now the Panthers. He is 14-8-1 ATS when having to face “bad teams’ in consecutive games (the 2nd leg), covering the spread by 4.4 PPG.
➤ Bryce Young has now won 8 total games outright as an NFL starter, but in the games he’s faced a struggling pass defense (allowing 250+ pass yds on season), like with the Cowboys this week, he is still 0-8 SU as a starter (3-5 ATS).
➤ Bryce has seemed like a different QB at home vs. road. At home, he is a respectable 6-10 SU, on the road he is 1-15 SU. His passer rating is more than 10 pts higher at home vs. road, completion pct is almost 8 pts higher and his completion pct over expected is almost 7% higher at home.
➤ Bryce has always struggled in the first half against the spread, with a 11-22 1H ATS mark in his career.
Any type of decent result for the Panthers in their previous game also puts them in a tough spot early in their next game. Bryce is 4-11 1H ATS after a Panthers SU win or loss by 8 pts or less.
➤ Jaguars are coming off a short week after facing the Chiefs on Monday Night Football last week. Last decade, teams that were home underdogs on MNF have struggled the next week after putting so much effort into the matchup — they are 26-42 SU and 30-38 ATS in those games.
➤ A few firsts for the Jaguars last week. They entered the game vs. the Chiefs at 4-0 1H ATS and trailed 14-7 at the half, losing their first game 1H ATS this season.
Trevor Lawrence entered this season 26-36 1H ATS in his career, time to see if we see a shift.
➤ Trevor Lawrence has made six starts on short rest in the NFL, Jacksonville is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in those games, scoring at least 19 points in all six games.
➤ Exactly what you want to see if you want to back Jacksonville. Jaguars are 9-4 ATS with Trevor Lawrence the game after winning outright as an underdog, covering the spread by 5.8 PPG.
➤ In Mike Macdonald’s short career as coach of the Seahawks, he is 13-9 SU and 9-12-1 ATS – but his teams have been juggernauts on the road. On the road, Seattle is 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS under Macdonald. At home, they are just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS. The only coach with a worse home ATS record in that span? Brian Callahan at 0-10 ATS.
➤ Seattle out east hasn’t been so bad. Since 2018, the Seahawks are 15-8 ATS playing in EST, covering the spread by 3.8 PPG. In that span, Seattle has traveled south to Atlanta, Carolina and Miami in six games — they are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in those games. Mike MacDonald’s Seahawks are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in that spot.
➤ Jaguars were leading 21-14 entering the 4th quarter against the Chiefs, came away with the win, but lost the 4Q 14-10. Jacksonville is 0-5 against the 4th quarter spread this season, tied with the Dolphins for the worst mark in the NFL.
➤ Here is the reality. The Ravens are 1-4 SU after their loss to Chiefs and Texans the last two weeks. If you want precedence for a team like the Ravens starting this poorly. Baltimore is the 5th team with a win total above 10 to start 1-4 SU or worse since 2000:
- 2025 Ravens
- 2024 Bengals
- 2016 Panthers
- 2013 Texans
- 2002 Rams
From last week: Since division realignment in 2002, sixteen teams had a double-digit win total in the preseason and started the season 1-3 SU – 14 failed to make the playoffs and two did (2007 Chargers, 2002 Steelers). Thirteen consecutive teams since San Diego in 2007 have failed to bounce back from the tough start and make the postseason.
➤ As a road favorite, the Rams and Sean McVay are beyond consistent.
As above a 4-point favorite on the road, McVay and the Rams are 16-0 SU, winning by 14.1 PPG (he is 9-7 ATS in those games, 15-0-1 in a 6-point teaser).
If you want some precedence for McVay’s mark, the next-closest undefeated mark since 2005 is Lovie Smith at 11-0 SU.
➤ Nobody likes an East Coast trip like Sean McVay. The Rams are 17-9-2 ATS on the road out east under him, covering the spread by 4 PPG.
➤ Rams have also done well under McVay after facing an NFC West opponent – they are 29-16-14 ATS, including 8-3-1 ATS over the last two seasons and 21-9-2 ATS since 2020.
➤ Rams only had one sack against the 49ers last week in the loss at home. Rams are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their game after recording one sack or fewer since the middle of 2023 season.
➤ Even after Lamar’s loss to the Lions earlier this season, he is 24-3 SU vs. the NFC. All other Ravens QBs are 2-4 SU vs. NFC since Lamar came aboard in 2018.
➤ Since the start of last season, the over is 19-5 in Ravens games, going over the total by 6.3 PPG, by far the best mark in the NFL. This season, the Ravens are the lone 5-0 to the over team in the NFL.
Ravens join only the 2023 Bears for teams to start the season 5-0 to the over in the last 5 seasons.
➤ 177 points through five games. In modern NFL history, the Ravens are only five points off the record for pts allowed through five games, 182 by the 2013 Giants.
➤ Short rest on one end usually means extended rest coming out of the game.
McVay is 17-8 ATS coaching any game on short rest after the loss to the 49ers last week. On extended rest as a favorite, McVay is just 10-13-2 ATS.
➤ Rams just lost at home to a backup QB in Mac Jones last week. If it’s Cooper Rush, he has a shot. Backups are 10-11 SU and 13-8 ATS vs. McVay since 2013.
➤ Puka Nacua’s ridiculous season continued last week. He just started a new club. 60+ targets, 50+ receptions through five games. Just one member: Puka, over the last 40 years.
➤ In Week 4 vs. Colts, Stafford and Rams covered the 2nd half spread after leading at the half – something Stafford rarely does in his career. Overall, he is 34-67-2 (34%) against the 2nd half spread in his career, including 8-24-1 2H ATS with Rams. Since 2022, he is 3-17-1 2H ATS after leading at the half.
Stafford has finished below .500 against the second half spread in 7 straight seasons entering this year.
➤ Ravens offense without Lamar didn’t look pretty again last week.
Since 2019, six QBs have started a game for Baltimore: Lamar, Cooper Rush, RGIII, Anthony Brown, Josh Johnson and Tyler Huntley.
Here is how they have compared. In the 15 games started by QBs not named Lamar Jackson, Baltimore is 4-11 SU, but 9-6 ATS.
- Lamar; Other QBs
- Record: 63-27 SU & 49-40-1 ATS; 4-11 SU & 9-6 ATS
- PPG: 28.1 PPG; 16.2 PPG
- Opp PPG: 19.9 PPG; 20.9 PPG
- 30+ pts on Off.: 42 of 90 (47%); 1 of 15 (7%)
- ATS Margin: +2.8; -1.1
➤ The Titans had the comeback of all comebacks last week. Cam Ward became the 4th rookie No. 1 overall drafted QB to comeback down 18+ pts since the merger, joining Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford and John Elway.
In those three other QBs' next game, they lost all three, failing to cover in each. All three rookie QB teams off the win lost by a combined score of 38-117 in their next game, losing by 21+ pts in each.
➤ Titans and Panthers came back down 17 pts last week to win their games. Teams off a 17+ pt comeback are just 18-24 SU/ATS over the last decade.
➤ Raiders have the Chiefs on deck next week. Since 2020, teams with KC on the horizon are 61-38-1 ATS, covering the spread by over 2 PPG.
➤ Titans won and covered the spread last week. Not something they can say they’ve done a lot lately. We have to go back to Week 2 of 2023 to find the last time the Titans covered the spread in consecutive games.
Titans have lost 9 consecutive games ATS after a SU win dating back to the 2022 season, failing to cover the spread by 7.2 PPG in those matchups. Every other team in the NFL has at least two covers after a SU win in that span.
➤ The Saints and Titans both got wins last week to take them out of the winless category. In the last decade, teams starting 0-4 SU or worse are 5-16 SU and 8-13 ATS the week after getting their first victory of the season. Since 2021, these teams are 0-6 SU/ATS the week after their first victory.
➤ Raiders got absolutely blown out last week. The final score of 40-6 didn’t even really do it justice.
When a team with a win pct below 40% loses a game by 30+ pts, they are 95-67-4 ATS (59%) since 2003 – these teams are 3-0 ATS this season. This also works for the Ravens this week.
➤ Another week, and another backup QB for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out months and not weeks. Overall, Zac Taylor has had to start a backup QB 20 times in Cincinnati — he is 6-14 SU and 8-11-1 ATS in those games.
Matt LaFleur and the Packers have been a nightmare for backup QBs. LaFleur’s teams are 15-2 SU and 10-7 ATS facing a backup QB.
Jake Browning is 4-6 SU as the Bengals starter after the loss last week. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 45-32-1 SU with Burrow and 8-25 SU with all other QBs (Ryan Finley, Browning, Brandon Allen, Andy Dalton).
➤ Packers are massive favorites this week. For Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur, this would be the 2nd time they closed -14 or higher; they did so against the Saints in December of last year, a game they won 34-0 as a 14.5-point favorite.
If the line gets up to -15, it would be Green Bay’s biggest favorite since 2012 under Aaron Rodgers against the Jaguars.
➤ Bengals were the first team to lose by 24+ in consecutive games within the first four games of the regular season since Dolphins in 2019 (only other team in the last decade). Now, Cincinnati has lost by 13+ in three straight and is now a double-digit underdog this week. Only 8 teams have done that in the last 20 years and they were 6-2 ATS in that next game after the 3-game skid.
➤ A decent spot for the Packers. Under Matt LaFleur, they’ve been listed as a 7+ pt favorite off an in-season bye three times and they are 3-0 SU/ATS in those games, with all three games coming at home.
➤ In the first three months of the season — September, October, November — Zac Taylor is now 27-43-1 SU…
27-27-1 SU with Joe Burrow
0-16 SU with all other QBs … losing by 13.7 PPG.
➤One of the more “obvious” spots. Packers on 14+ days rest, Bengals on a 3-game losing streak. Teams in that spot are just 38-52-5 ATS (42%) since 2003 and 2-8 ATS since the start of 2023.
➤In Joe Flacco’s 211 career starts, if this line closes at +13 or higher it will be the biggest underdog of his career. Some notes on Joe for this week:
- Last 3 seasons, Flacco has been a 6+ pt underdog four times. His teams have scored 53 total points in those four games.
- The bet might be to fade Flacco late. He is 12-20-1 2H ATS since 2019, .500 2H ATS or worse in all seven seasons.
- Jake Browning vs. Joe Flacco…
JB: 6.5% turnover worthy throw%, 20.2% off target throw%, 2.6 time to throw, 7.5 aDOT
JF: 3.8% turnover worthy throw%, 14.4% off target throw%, 2.7 time to throw, 6.6 aDOT
➤ Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 15-10-1 ATS playing on short rest – a very respectable mark for the situation. Now the 49ers are on extended prep before hitting the road to face the Bucs.
On any extended rest, Shanahan is 18-19 ATS in his career … Shanahan is 5-10 ATS in this spot with Brock Purdy and 13-9 ATS with all other QBs.
➤ 49ers head east to face the Bucs on some extended prep time.
- Under Shanahan, 49ers are 13-10 ATS playing on the East Coast, covering the spread by over 3 PPG.
- On 10+ days prep, Shanahan is just 2-5 ATS playing in EST or CST … 2-2 ATS with Purdy and 0-3 ATS with all other QBs.
➤ Laying points is never easy. Baker Mayfield is 25-17 ATS with the Bucs, 9-9 ATS as a favorite and 16-8 ATS as an underdog.
When Baker starts, the Bucs are 22-2 in a 6-point teaser when listed as an underdog. Since joining Tampa, Baker is the most profitable QB ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Baker is 20-32-1 ATS as a favorite. When he is coming off a SU win, Baker is 2-9 ATS in his last 11 starts as a favorite. A tough spot.
➤ The value of Brock Purdy is hard to quantify, but his efficiency is a starting point. Since the start of 2022, Purdy has led the NFL in success rate with 53.6%. This season, Purdy is 2nd in success rate behind just Sam Darnold. After Mac Jones’ performance last week vs. Rams, Mac is 4th in success rate this year. 49ers getting the most out of their QBs.
➤ 49ers are 1 of 2 defenses who hasn’t allowed a single point in the first quarter this season, with the Packers. Over the last three seasons, San Francisco has dominated 1st quarters, going 26-16-1 against the 1st quarter spread.
➤ Not a bad bounce back. Under Kyle Shanahan, 49ers are 8-6 ATS after facing the Rams and 6-3 ATS after beating the Rams. After facing an NFC West team, Shanahan is 14-7 ATS playing on the road, too.
➤ In 2022, the Bucs went 3-14-1 to their team total over under Tom Brady. Since bringing in Baker Mayfield in 2023, Bucs are 25-17 to their team total over, being over .500 in all three seasons under Baker.
➤ This is going to be a battle of halftime adjustments. This season, Bucs are 5-0 against the 3rd quarter spread. 49ers are 0-5 against the 3rd quarter spread. The only two undefeated and defeated teams in that category.
Since the start of last season, 49ers are 6-16 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room.
➤ Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have dominated in night games as a duo. In the regular season, Goff and Campbell are 12-2 SU, including 7-0 SU since the start of last season. Both of Detroit’s losses in this spot have came as underdogs (9-0 SU as favorites).
Best win pct in prime time – QB-coach duos since 1970
Peyton Manning & Jim Caldwell – .900
Jared Goff & Dan Campbell – .857
Steve Young & Steve Mariucci – .800
(Min. 10 starts)
➤The Lions have recently been simply dominant.
- SU streaks:
- 18-3 SU (85.7%) last 21 games
- 32-9 SU (78%) last 41 games
- 41-12 SU (77.4%) last 53 games
- ATS streaks:
- 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games
- 22-7-1 ATS last 30 games
- 39-13-1 ATS last 53 games
- Want to find a similar 50-game ATS stretch as the Lions, the Vikings in 2016-17 also had a 50-game stretch with 72%+ cover pct.
- Jared Goff has 49 regular season covers since 2021 (last 5 years), no other QB in the NFL has even 40 entering Week 6.
- How dominant have the Lions been ATS? The Lions are 51-21-1 ATS (70.8%) in the regular season since 2021. If you remove 7 Lions pts from each and every one of those 73 regular season games, Detroit would be 28-44-1 ATS – in that same span, the Jets are 29-43-1 ATS and the Falcons are 28-43-1 ATS, worst two records in the NFL.
➤ When Mahomes is -3 or shorter as a favorite, or an underdog, he is 29-12-1 ATS in his career – when his opponent is coming off a win by more than 10 pts entering this matchup, he is 15-4 ATS in his career.
Lions enter this game 4-1 ATS and their usual ATS juggernaut. Mahomes has faced three teams covering 80%+ of their games this late in the season, KC is 3-0 SU, winning by 8.8 PPG.
➤ With the Lions, Jared Goff is 14-8 ATS in outdoor games. When Goff was with the Rams, he was 15-24-1 ATS in outdoor games.
Goff has started 11 games outdoors with a wind speed of 10+ MPG – Goff is 6-5 SU and ATS in those games. Goff has produced some good games and some bad ones. Here is his team's offensive production by points:
0, 6, 17, 20, 20, 23, 24, 31, 32, 34, 37
➤ Last week was a Chiefs loss for the record books. Since Mahomes became a full-time starter in 2018, KC was 31-2 SU when leading after the 1st quarter and winning the turnover margin for the game, with their last loss before last week coming in 2019.
Before last week, the Chiefs were 30-0 SU when leading after the first quarter in the last three seasons – their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
➤ Chiefs will play consecutive night games this week after facing the Jaguars on Monday Night Football last week.
Since the start of 2020, the Chiefs have played seven sets of consecutive games at night – this being their 8th. KC is 6-2 SU in those games, 6-0 SU outside the Super Bowl and 0-2 SU in the Super Bowl, losing to the Eagles and Bucs.
Kansas City will also play its second consecutive night game on short rest. Since division realignment in 2002, teams on the 2nd leg of consecutive night games are 38-48 SU and 38-47-2 ATS on short rest, including 4-9 SUATS since 2022.
➤ Jared Goff has made 38 starts at night in primetime in his pro career. He is 21-5 SU as a favorite and 4-8 SU as an underdog after beating the Ravens in primetime earlier this season.
➤ When Jared Goff and Dan Campbell open as an underdog against any opponent, they are 28-11 ATS (72%) as a duo. When they actually end up closing as the dog after opening as so, 22-9 ATS.
➤ Even in the loss, the Chiefs came alive in the 4th quarter, beating Jacksonville 14-10. This season, the Chiefs are 5-0 against the 4th quarter spread. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs are 17-8 4Q ATS, including 9-3 4Q ATS when playing at home.
➤ Lions have a high-powered offense, averaging 34.8 PPG…
Since the start of 2023, Mahomes has faced an opposing offense averaging 30+ PPG five times, including early season, too – KC is 5-0 SU in those games, winning by 9.6 PPG.
➤ Mahomes has started 25 primetime games since the start of the 2022 season, the most of any QB in the NFL – in those games he is now 19-6 SU after last week.
Hasn’t been great lately though. Since 2020, Mahomes is 31-9 SU in night games, 3 of those 9 losses have come since and including the Super Bowl last year – he was 30-6 SU prior to their 1-3 SU 4-game stretch in night games currently.
➤ Since 2022, Mahomes is 13-18 ATS at home, a bottom-10 mark for any QB in the NFL. Mahomes hasn’t finished a season
➤ What Dan Campbell and the Lions have accomplished against the spread is historic. But in my opinion, what they are doing after winning is remarkable. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 24-6 ATS in their next game after a 6+ pt win and they are 21-5 ATS after a 7+ pt win.
➤ Mahomes always finds a way…
- In games 4p ET or later, with winds of 9+ MPH or greater, Mahomes is 26-4 SU.
- When Mahomes faces a team with a dome as their home stadium in 7+ MPH winds, he is 18-4 SU, winning by 10.6 PPG.
➤ Falcons are on some extra prep heading into this game, coming off a bye into Monday Night Football – a total of 15 days between games. It’s a unique spot for teams with this much rest to be at home and an underdog. It’s only happened ten times since 2003 entering this week and they are 3-7 SU/ATS.
➤ Bills will play consecutive night games this week after facing the Patriots on Sunday Night Football last week. When a team plays on the road on the 2nd leg of those consecutive night games, they win just 42.6% of games outright in the last 20 years – when they are on 8 days rest or less in that spot like Buffalo, it falls to 39.1%.
Since the calendar flipped to 2021, Buffalo has played consecutive night games nine times. In that 2nd night game they are 2-7 SU/ATS. When that 2nd night game is on the road, Buffalo as a franchise is 0-7 SU (0-6-1 ATS) in that 2nd night game since division realignment in 2002.
➤ When Josh Allen is above a field goal favorite (-3.5 or higher) in primetime, the Bills are 13-2 SU, but just 7-8 ATS (6-2 ATS when the spread is -7 or less for Buffalo).
When the Bills hit the road or neutral site off a loss, they are 13-3 SU with Josh Allen, winning by 9.9 PPG.
➤ Josh Allen will make his 15th career start inside a dome. He enters this game 10-3-1 ATS in thise games, covering the spread by 8.5 PPG. In a 6-point teaser in a dome, Allen is 13-1.
➤ The Bills turned the ball over three times last week. Under Josh Allen, Buffalo is 17-4 SU week after turning the ball over 3+ times, including 14-2 SU as a favorite.
➤ The Bills have dominated second halves normally, that wasn’t the case last week against the Patriots.
Since the start of last season, Buffalo is 19-6 against the 2nd half spread, the best mark in the NFL. When the Bills lose a 2H ATS, they are 5-0 2H ATS in their next game.
➤ Falcons covered at home against Marcus Mariota and Washington in Week 4. Even after that cover, Falcons coach Raheem Morris is 13-25 ATS at home as a head coach, 9-9 ATS as a favorite and an astounding 4-16 ATS as a home underdog. Of the 159 head coaches in the NFL since 2003, Morris; 4-16 ATS mark as a home dog is the worst.
➤ Bills and Ravens both have a bye coming up after this week and are facing opponents not in the same spot. In the last decade, teams with upcoming rest (facing a team with not) are winning 57.6% of games and covering 58.4%.
➤ Falcons getting ready for trouble? Home dogs on Monday Night Football are 20-30 ATS since 2002 when their opponent is coming off an outright loss. Angry road favorites in primetime.
➤ The Bears are 0-4 SU in primetime since the start of last season – which means Caleb Williams is 0-4 SU in primetime. With a loss Monday night, Caleb would have the most losses without an outright win in night games for any current QB dating back to 2003 – he is currently tied with Josh Dobbs and Zach Wilson.
In the last decade, Baers are 11-23 SU in primetime. Of the 9 QBs to start for them at night in that span, none are above .500 SU.
➤ Bears are 4-0 to their team total over this season, the last undefeated team to the over left in the NFL. Last year, Bears finished 8-9 to their team total over – already halfway to their total through four games.
➤ Bears and Commanders face off for the first time since Jayden Daniels’ hail mary almost a year ago this week. With that loss, Chicago is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS against Washington since 2004. Of those 11 meetings, eight were decided by single digits, with 7 by 5 pts or less.
➤ This will be Caleb Williams’ 5th career NFL start on extended rest, including this week, all five have come on the road and all five the Bears have been underdogs. Bears are 1-3 SU/ATS in those games, beating the Packers at the end of last season. In the other 3 games, Chicago scored 40 total pts.
Jayden Daniels has made six career primetime starts already in his short career, going 4-2 SU/ATS. In the last 20 years, QBs not named Jayden Daniels are 18-36 SU in night games for Washington.
➤ Monday Night Football is a unique animal. Jayden Daniels has made one career start, a 38-33 win in Cincinnati. Caleb Williams has made two starts, he’s 0-2 SU/ATS.
Since 2008, Washington is 5-16 SU on Monday Night Football – 3-0 SU as the Commanders and 2-16 SU as the Redskins and Football Team.
➤ Bears are on some extra prep heading into this game, coming off a bye into Monday Night Football – a total of 15 days between games. Teams with that much rest are 19-11 ATS when playing on the road dating back to 2003.
➤ Caleb has made ten career road starts in his NFL career. He has just one 1H cover – his win against the Packers at the end of last season. Caleb is 1-9 1H ATS on the road in his career, failing to cover the 1H spread by 7.5 PPG – Caleb’s 1-9 1H ATS road mark is the worst for any QB over the last two seasons.
➤ Sometimes all it takes is a QB. Dan Quinn is 55-59-1 ATS as a head coach. He is 14-8-1 ATS with Jayden Daniels and 41-51 ATS with all other QBs.
As a favorite, Quinn is 29-39 ATS. 8-4 ATS with Jayden Daniels and 21-35 ATS with all other QBs.
➤The good Jayden Daniels news. He’s faced four opponents on extended rest in his short career. Commanders are 3-1 SU/ATS in those games, averaging 32 PPG in total for Washington.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Games with 10+ MPH winds are going under at a 63.2% rate since 2022. Check link for updated matches.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Ravens are 1-4 and got blown out last week. So buy in?
Matches: BAL
System: Colts had a massive win against the Raiders last week. Is this the week to fade?
Matches: IND
System: Looking at underdogs with a Pythagorean advantage on the season.
Matches: NYG, NO, MIA, SEA, ARI