Our NFL Luck Rankings have proven to be a highly successful tool for betting NFL sides and totals.
In the three seasons since we introduced the Luck Rankings, games that met significant thresholds for sides or totals have gone 141-95-4 (59.7%) against closing lines, the hardest lines to beat!
This year, we introduced Version 3.0 of our Luck Rankings as a way to continue to improve the methodology, as well as to simplify the thresholds and give you even better luck metrics.
As part of that, we've introduced something called the "Luck Score." This single number will tell us whether a game has a significant luck factor.
If the Luck Score is 1.454 or higher, we'll consider that a luck-based side. In addition, associated with each Luck Score will be a letter grade and a Luck-Based Cover% (LBC%). Anything with a "D" and up is playable, with expected improved results as we go up the letter-grade scale (from D to A).
Unlucky teams meeting this 1.454 Luck Score and D-rated threshold or better are 150-102-7 against the closing spread over the past seven years. That equates to a 59.5% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size of more than 250 games.
In Week 6, the three unlucky teams all covered the spread, moving luck-based sides to 10-3 (76.9%) ATS on the year. In these 13 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 7.3 points.
For Luck Totals, the criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
In Week 6, there were four weak Luck Unders, which went 1-3 to the under. That puts weak Luck Totals at 4-10 (28.6%). As I've discussed, weak Luck Unders don't beat the market early season, so we're just waiting until later in the season to start betting those.
Strong Luck Totals remain 2-2 on the season.
As a whole, all sides and strong total bets are 12-5 (70.6%), while all bets, including the weak totals, are 16-15 (51.6%).
Based on our Week 7 NFL Luck Rankings, there are three sides, five weak totals, and a strong total that meet the criteria. Let's dive in.
