Warren has numerous factors that cap his ceiling in this specific market tonight. The Steelers are 3-point home dogs, which projects them to trail around a 10% higher rate than their season average, potentially lowering their overall rushing volume. Kenneth Gainwell also tends to see an increase in playing time in trailing game scripts, and using both backs in the passing game could be a more efficient version, or extension, of the run game against a stingy Texans defense. Not only does Gainwell mix in a ton, but we’ve also seen them give Jonnu Smith 1–2 designed rush attempts per game, and in short-yardage situations use Connor Heyward in their version of the tush push. That’s another sneaky reason why I like fading Warren in this specific market, since he’s not going to rack up many cheap rush attempts in short-yardage situations. I’m projecting him closer to 12.4 carries with around a 62% chance to stay under. If and when they move this down to 12.5 (probably shortly after I lock this in), I still think there’s enough downside in this market to feel good about taking under 12.5 at anything better than roughly -120.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker