Nevada vs. Arizona St Odds & Betting Predictions - March 16, 2023

+8 (Projection: NEV -6) Pro Report +2 w $%

No love for the Mountain West but Arizona State Super streaky and will be a live dog at some point

65% of his made baskets are in the paint/at the rim, and ASU shuts off the paint really well, with their opponents shooting ~6.5% below league average. In total, ASU allows the 29th fewest points via the 2P nationally (31). Where ASU struggles more is defending the three, but Blackshear has only made 18/64 of his threes this season. And Blackshear has only shot 37% in total away from home this season (averaging 12.7 ppg). Against arguably the toughest defense he’ll have faced this season, I like him to stay under.

#jimroot @threemanweave

BetMGM: Arizona St is a poor shooting team that leans on their defense (29th in KenPom efficiency) to keep them in games. They are very good at generating turnovers and rank 20th in eFG% allowed. However, Nevada turns it over at the 25th lowest rate and is one of the best FT shooting teams in the country at 79%. Arizona St tends to send their opponents to the FT line at a high rate which should backfire here

DK - Projection: 2.6. For more, check out BettingPros.

Bet365 7:23 Sunday from @charliedisturco

The Warren Washington & Desmond Cambridge revenge game. Arizona State runs transition at a T20 rate and are #2 in finishes at the rim offensively - an area where Nevada struggles (262nd). Defensively, they’re 6th in 2PT defense and 22nd in eFG%, and Nevada’s offense is extremely average and relies heavily on FTs (23.7% of points). Heavy midrange game between Blackshear and Lucas, but I’m going to back the more complete team here against a Nevada team that I think is spiraling. They give up a lot of looks from 3, and ASU will shoot without hesitation. As bad as ASU is from 3, Nevada ranks 258th in catch and shoot, so there’ll be plenty of opps