Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
B.Irving u16.5 Rush Att-119
ATL
29
28
TB
0.5u
FINAL 12/12
I was high on Bucky entering his rookie season and thought he could push Rachaad White and potentially leapfrog him. Sure enough, that’s what happened, but I viewed him more as a pass-catching specialist, which overlapped with White’s skill set, since White wasn’t very good on early downs. He’s been struggling in year two, and a lot of that can be chalked up to dealing with nagging injuries and missing multiple games this year.
He stepped right back into the lead role in his two games since returning, but the inefficiency as a runner has remained. Out of 45 qualified RBs, he ranks 2nd to last in success rate on runs (only ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson. Too bad Mike Vrabel won’t be reading this pick note lol). Rachaad White ranks 2nd, sandwiched between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who rank 1st and 3rd. Sean Tucker doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify, but he would be well ahead of Bucky and rank 30th, and Tucker has always profiled as the better short-yardage back of the group.
So I think the coaching staff continues to tweak their usage and possibly lets White/Tucker see a bit more early-down and short-yardage work, while focusing on getting Bucky more involved as a pass catcher, where he’s been elite with a league-high 12.9 YAC per reception.
We saw them trend toward the more optimal approach last week. Despite going ultra run heavy in the 24-20 loss to the Saints (39 rush attempts to 30 passes), Bucky still only had 15 carries because it was more of a 60/40 split with White on early downs. It’ll be tough for Tampa Bay to rack up nearly 40 carries again this week against Atlanta, in a game where I think Falcons +4.5 is the sharp side.
It’ll also be the first time all season they have their top 4 WRs fully healthy in Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and even Jalen McMillan. So I’m projecting them to be a bit more pass heavy, which involves getting Bucky the ball in space in the passing game, and likely keeps White/Tucker involved enough on early downs to cap Bucky’s upside in this market.
I’m projecting him closer to 15.4 rush attempts with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.
170
A.Winfield u6.5 Tackles + Ast-105
ATL
29
28
TB
0.53u
FINAL 12/12
Winfield has only cleared this in 4 of 13 games (31%), and all 4 came against teams that provide above-average tackle opps for safeties. The Falcons have provided the 9th fewest, making this a tougher matchup. Winfield is also much more involved in pass-play tackling, and this isn’t a great spot, as I’m projecting Tampa Bay to face ~3 fewer completions than usual and about +1.5 more run plays, which hurts Winfield specifically.
However, there are some moving pieces here. The Bucs are without LB SirVocea Dennis (out), and S Tykee Smith is doubtful. The loss of Dennis could lead to Winfield getting a few extra tackle chances because backup Deion Jones is a huge downgrade. We could see more run plays get into the open field and expose Winfield to more tackle opps, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the one taking down Bijan every time.
If Smith ends up ruled out, I’m not convinced it helps Winfield. It’ll likely be Christian Izien filling in, and he has lined up in the box at a very high rate, which would keep Winfield deep more often. Izien was a tackling machine in that role and racked up 8 tackles when he played just under 50% of the snaps last week after Smith went down. He could help pick up the slack from Deion Jones playing more and potentially prevent some plays from reaching Winfield.
In the end, I still think Winfield mixes in on a handful of tackles but ultimately stays just short of this number. I’m projecting him for 5.9 with around a 61% chance to stay under 6.5.
If early on it looks like Kaevon Merriweather (#26) is replacing Smith and not Izien (#29), I would consider buying out on his live market. If Winfield lines up in the box on the opening drive but doesn’t get a tackle and we see his live number around 5.5, I’d maybe try to middle it and root for him to finish with 6 exactly. But if we see #29 out there on the opening snap and closer to the line of scrimmage, with Winfield (#31) deep, that’s exactly what I want for the under.
The fun part of tackle props is sometimes you can tell on the opening drive, just based on how a guy is lining up, whether you’re sitting on a winning or losing bet.
152
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
87
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 10-11-0 | 48% | -0.88u |
| Last 30 Days | 35-34-0 | 51% | -0.96u |
| All Time | 1994-1606-31 | 55% | 231.74u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1168-922-19 | 55% | 138.32u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 262-211-3 | 55% | 28.30u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-24-2 | 58% | 6.09u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-74-0 | 51% | -2.77u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point