Michael Calabrese

Welcome to the coaching carousel in the year of our Lord, 2025. Both the Green Wave and Mean Green have head coaches with one foot out the door. North Texas’ Eric Morris has been named Oklahoma State’s next head coach, while Tulane’s Jon Sumrall will be taking over at Florida. Unlike the wild Lane Kiffin/Ole Miss debacle that played out over the weekend, both of the head coaches in this game made nice with their current and future ADs, negotiating the right to coach out the season with their respective G5 schools. On the field, both of these teams bring special elements to the table. Tulane, winners of four straight, held five American opponents below 20 points and did it with a fierce pass rush (26th per PFF). North Texas put its faith in Morris, a former Mike Leach disciple, and that paid off in a big way this season. Drew Mestemaker, who famously didn’t start a varsity high school game, went from walk-on to leading the nation in passing yards. And unlike those pass-happy Leach teams of yesteryear that would throw it 50 times a game, UNT had real balance. The Mean Green finished the regular season seventh in line yards and sixth in rushing success rate while making Caleb Hawkins a star. The freshman running back went nuclear in November, punching in an astounding 16 rushing touchdowns in the past four games. It’s the Mean Green’s rushing attack that tips the scales for me in this one. Tulane can hang with them in nearly every other facet of the game, but its run defense is below average. South Florida bullied UNT in the trenches, creating seven tackles for loss while generating five turnovers in a runaway win, 63-36. Tulane’s run defense (86th in Success Rate) will allow UNT to stay on schedule, preventing the Green Wave’s defensive line from pinning its ears back on known passing downs. In the end, North Texas will score too many points and Jake Retzlaff will sink the Green Wave’s chances of winning the American with a few untimely turnovers (17 Turnover Worthy plays in ‘25).

The college football world spent most of the season waiting for the other shoe to drop when it came to the Wahoos. Surely, a team that started 11-23 under Tony Elliott in his first three seasons couldn’t really compete for an ACC title, right? Some call it luck, others call it being clutch, but what we know is that Virginia is nails in tight ball games. The Cavaliers won three straight games this season by three points or less. Their only loss since early September came by seven to Wake Forest in a game in which Chandler Morris, UVA’s QB1, was knocked out with a head injury. In games that Morris has started and finished, UVA is 10-1 with its lone blemish coming to NC State in a shootout, 35-31. Duke, meanwhile, backed its way into the ACC Title Game on the fifth tiebreaker (combined win percentage of ACC opponents). The Blue Devils went 3-3 down the stretch, allowing 29 points per game to their final six opponents. And in their head-to-head meeting with this very same Virginia team, the Blue Devils got blasted 34-17 while being outgained by 285 yards. At one point in the fourth quarter, it was 31-3 UVA. Simply put, it was one of the worst beatdowns the ACC produced all season long. Sportsbooks are giving the Blue Devils a puncher’s chance because of their offense and Darian Mensah. When they protect him, he’s a big play triggerman. Duke finished 11th in big play creation, with 31 plays of 30+ yards from scrimmage (3rd-most in the ACC). So, how did UVA slow them down in their first meeting? With a nasty pass rush (4 sacks) and great situational playcalling by defensive coordinator John Rudzinski. Duke was just 4-for-15 on third downs, and the Blue Devils turned it over on downs twice, including once inside the UVA ten-yard line. I’ll bank on a repeat performance in Charlotte from the Cavs.