We're back. Thursday marks the first of five straight days of college football, ranging from Thursday through Monday. What's included in those five days, you ask? Ninety-six games. And unsurprisingly, our staff is ready to celebrate with some 2024 college football best bets for Week 1 on Thursday.
Our college football experts kicked the week off with seven Week 1 expert picks for Thursday's college football slate, including best bets for North Carolina vs. Minnesota, North Dakota State vs. Colorado, Coastal Carolina vs. Jacksonville State, Eastern Illinois vs. Illinois and even Northwestern State vs. Tulsa.
So, strap in. It's going to be a fun five days. And it's time to kick things off with our expert college football Week 1 picks on Thursday.
College Football Best Bets: 2024 Week 1 Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's Week 1 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, then head over and check out our top sportsbooks list to make sure you're getting the most out of your college football Week 1 picks.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UNC vs. Minnesota College Football Best Bet: Pick the Gophers to Win
Minnesota will look to avenge its loss to North Carolina from last season when it hosts the Tar Heels on Thursday night. In the first and only meeting between the two programs in Chapel Hill last season, the Tar Heels cruised to an uninterrupted 31-13 victory.
This year, I think things will play out a little differently as Minnesota seeks revenge on its home turf with a veteran squad and a head coach who will be feeling the heat after a 6-7 campaign in 2023.
During the offseason, Golden Gopher head coach PJ Fleck made two serious changes to his team, both of which should be synergistic and necessary for improvement as they start the season against a Power Four opponent.
After a rare down year on defense, former Rutgers linebackers coach Corey Hetherman was brought in as the defensive coordinator and tasked with simplifying the schemes that previously proved to be too complex.
Hetherman inherits a defensive unit with seven returning starters and will place an emphasis on speed.
Minnesota has struggled at quarterback over the years. In fact, the Golden Gophers haven't had a quarterback taken in the NFL Draft since 1972 or a first-team All-Big Ten quarterback since 1961.
Fleck will attempt to inject some moxie into the passing game with the addition of New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer this season. Brosmer threw for 3,459 yards last season and found friendly hands on 64% of his attempts.
When you piece together the entire Minnesota roster, it returns 16 starters from last season. And with the help of the portal, it ranks 20th in returning production, per SP+.
When we compare this to North Carolina, it looks even better. UNC faces a steep reload after losing starting quarterback Drake Maye to the New England Patriots, coming into the season ranked 100th in returning production.
Minnesota is an underdog at home in this contest, and I like jumping on a plus-money outright victory at home for the Golden Gophers.
Fleck should have his defense back in order after dealing with injuries last season, and a Walter Payton Award finalist in Brosmer won't be asked to do too much behind an excellent line and running game.
I recommend backing Minnesota to win outright at +100 or better.
Pick: Minnesota ML +110 (Play to +100)
By Cody Goggin
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Minnesota Golden Gophers will face off on Thursday night in the first game between two Power Four conference teams in Week 1. Their matchup last season saw North Carolina come out with a 31-13 win, but I think this year's edition could play out differently.
Minnesota returns eight starters on each side of the ball. Max Brosmer joins the team as the starting quarterback after five years at New Hampshire, where he racked up 8,467 yards and 68 touchdowns.
The passing game was Minnesota’s biggest weakness last year (114th in Success Rate), and this should help improve the team in that area.
The Gophers return four starters on the offensive line, their two leading rushers and their leading receiver. I believe this will be one of the most improved offenses in the Big Ten this season.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 17th in the country to start the season, per SP+, and returns eight starters. So, this looks to be a tough unit as well.
On the other side, North Carolina will be replacing Drake Maye at quarterback, as well as its top two receivers and four starting offensive linemen.
Max Johnson, the former LSU and Texas A&M signal-caller, is expected to start at quarterback in Mack Brown’s offense.
This defense does return seven starters, but it ranked just 69th in Defensive Success Rate last season and 79th in Havoc. The Tar Heels will also be undergoing a big change as well, as Geoff Collins takes over as defensive coordinator and changes things over to his system.
Minnesota will get a major upgrade at quarterback and has a ton of experience across the entire roster. Plus, the defense has a solid amount of continuity.
North Carolina, meanwhile, will undergo major changes with a new defensive system and tack on a new quarterback on offense.
I love taking the Gophers at home in this matchup. I think they're the better team right now despite being an underdog.
Pick: Minnesota ML +110 (Play to +100)
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UNC vs. Minnesota College Football Best Bet #2: Pick the Under
This pick comes down to one thing: uncertainty on offense.
North Carolina is the living embodiment of “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none.”
Mack Brown has confirmed his intentions to split reps between Texas A&M transfer Max Johnson and returning redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell. The former has nearly 6,000 passing yards, while the latter has just 33 career pass attempts.
Throw in the fact neither quarterback will have UNC’s most talented receiver from 2023, Tez Walker, and it likely means a heavy dose of running back Omarion Hampton.
If the Gophers can load up and stop Hampton, it could be a long day for the UNC offense.
Minnesota, meanwhile, must work in New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer. Brosmer led the FCS in passing last season, but he could be without a couple of key weapons.
Stud running back Darius Taylor has been limited at practice, as has top wideout Daniel Jackson. Both would be significant losses for an offense that finished 11th in the Big Ten in scoring in 2023.
Offenses are rarely running on all cylinders as is to start the year, let alone ones with so many question marks.
I’m snagging this under now before it potentially drops even more when the final injury report comes out closer to kick.
Pick: Under 50.5 (Play to 50)
North Dakota State vs. Colorado College Football Best Bet: Pick This Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
Travis Hunter may be the receiver who gets all the spotlight on this Colorado team, but the true No. 1 receiver on the Colorado Buffaloes is LaJohntay Wester.
The fifth-year senior transferred over from FAU this past offseason and is coming off a dominant 2023 campaign. Wester racked up 108 receptions and 1,168 yards receiving for the Owls last season.
While his target share will be lower in the Buffaloes offense, the opportunity for him to rack up yardage still exists. Colorado passed the ball at the eighth-highest rate in the country last season, and there's no sign of that being lower entering this season.
Wester is one of the smaller starting receivers, but he excels at route running and is great in open space, which is what we want for receiving yards props.
Additionally, Wester appears to have built rapport with Shedeur Sanders in the spring, as the two connected on multiple chunk plays in the spring.
Speaking of Sanders, there are high expectations for the passing game tonight. H
is yards prop is listed at 304.5, so there should be plenty of yards to go around against a North Dakota State defense that did not face an FBS opponent last season.
Pick: LaJohntay Wester Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 74.5)
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Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina C0llege Football Best Bet: Pick The Favorite to Cover
We know exactly what a Rich Rodriguez team wants to do. Jacksonville State averaged 49.8 rushing attempts per game last year, the second-most in the country. It runs the ball more often than Army and Navy and was very good at it.
The Gamecocks averaged 237 rushing yards per game and had four players average over 50 yards per game on the ground.
The top two rushers are gone, so Anwar Lewis will be the main guy in the backfield, along with Georgia transfer Andrew Paul.
The quarterback battle is a three-way race between returnee Logan Smothers, UConn transfer Zion Turner and Furman transfer Tyler Huff. It shouldn’t matter too much who ends up as the main signal-caller because this team is going to continue to lean on the run here.
That's especially true against this Coastal Carolina team, whose biggest weakness is defending the run. The Chanticleers ranked 113th in the country in Rushing Success on defense and allowed over 4.7 yards per carry. Opponents had over 150 yards on the ground in nine of their 13 games.
Now, the defense loses its top three tacklers, and the Coastal Carolina offense has even more questions. Star quarterback Grayson McCall is off to NC State, and the Chants also lose their top two wide receivers and two of their three running backs.
The Gamecocks had a terrific defense, especially against the run. They ranked fourth in the country in Rushing Success on defense. That will put a lot of pressure on Ethan Vasko or Noah Kim. Tim Beck hasn’t named a starter yet, but neither will be able to replace McCall.
This Jacksonville State defense should be much better than Coastal Carolina’s, and the Chants could take a big step back as they continue to lose the players Jamey Chadwell brought in.
I expect the Gamecocks offense to run all over this defense on Thursday night.
Pick: Jacksonville State -3 (Play to -3.5)
Tulsa vs. Northwestern State College Football Best Bet: Pick Tulsa to Cover the Spread
By Joshua Nunn
Tulsa takes on Northwestern State in the season opener for both teams, and this is a great spot to back the Golden Hurricane.
Northwestern State is going through a major rebuild this year after going 0-6 last year (1-5 ATS) and having their season postponed and ultimately canceled due to the tragic death of safety Ronnie Caldwell Jr. It was a very emotional time for the players and team, and ultimately, head coach Brad Laird cited this incident as the reason for his resignation.
The team looks to regroup after bringing in middling D-III coach Blaine McCorkle, who takes over after spending five years at Belhaven University and compiling an overall record of 31-25.
He has two returning starters on offense and is breaking in a new quarterback and four new pass-catchers. Plus, just one of the 16 offensive linemen have started here in the past.
The Demons also learning a completely new offensive system, and it's going to take time to unlock a successful O-line combination they can feel comfortable with. This is especially troubling, as they ran for just 2.6 yards per carry last year and allowed 19 sacks in just six games.
The defense is also a mystery, as two starters return. Position battles raged on throughout fall camp at all three levels of the defense. They haven’t allowed less than 400 yards per game since 2013, and over the previous two years, have allowed over 450 yards per game and 37 points per game.
If there's defensive improvement coming, I can't see it happening in this game.
Tulsa returns eight starters on offense and will be seeking to shore up the quarterback position after bringing in Cooper Legas from Utah State, returning Cardell Williams and retaining Kirk Francis, who played in four games last year and had the three highest passing totals of the season.
The running back room is solid with two young players to complement Anthony Watkins, who led the team with 889 yards a season ago. The Golden Hurricane also return their top four pass-catchers.
Defensively, Tulsa will not be overly good this year, but this is a game where the defensive shortcomings will likely not show.
Tulsa is going to work all three QBs in this game, and all three are capable of running the offense successfully.
I don’t see Tulsa trying to run it up here, but given the talent disparity and Tulsa's desire to get meaningful snaps for all three quarterbacks, it's hard to imagine it throttling it down in this game.
Pick: Tulsa -31.5 (Play to -35)
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Eastern Illinois vs. Illinois College Football Best Bet: Pick the Underdog to Cover
By Greg Waddell
When you’re looking for FCS teams that could give an FBS opponent a challenge, Eastern Illinois fits the bill.
The Panthers finished last season with an 8-3 record and were truly one of the better teams at that level.
Last season, it started with defense — the Eastern Illinois D forced 25 takeaways last year, which led the FCS in turnover margin.
All in all, they return 18 starters from last season, including nine on each side of the ball.
For Illinois, fresh off a 5-7 season in which all five wins resulted in margins of victory of six points or less, there are plenty of questions to answer.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer is back, but he was a big part of the problem last year. He threw 10 interceptions and missed the final three games.
Their best running back, Reggie Love, opted to leave for Purdue, and the Illini also lost their top two receivers from last season.
Zakhari Franklin transfers in to fill the pass-catching void, but Franklin couldn't get on the field at Ole Miss and played only four games for the Rebels.
Add it all up, and a 28-point spread on opening night seems a bit steep. Or maybe a lot steep. Eastern Illinois’ experience on both sides of the ball will give it a serious chance to hang in this game until the very end.
Pick: Eastern Illinois +28 (Play to +24)
