Week 8 rolls on in the afternoon slate with Ole Miss-Georgia, Purdue-Northwestern, and Clemson-SMU.
Read on for our college football best bets and NCAAF picks for Saturday afternoon's slate on October 17.
 |  |  |
College Football Best Bets, Picks for Saturday Afternoon
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
| 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
 | Afternoon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs Georgia Picks
Trinidad Chambliss has been a revelation for Ole Miss in passing, scrambling, and RPO decisions.
However, Georgia's defense may be the kryptonite for Ole Miss's rushing attack.
The Bulldogs rank second among all FBS teams in tackling, allowing just 17 missed tackles over the past three SEC games against Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn.
Kirby Smart's defense dominates inside zone, the preferred run concept for Ole Miss, at a 56% Success Rate. That number grows to 60% against Ole Miss's second preferred choice with man blocking.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia should have plenty of success moving the ball despite the injury status of running back Chauncey Bowens.
Nate Frazier has been the more elusive running back, averaging 3.3 yards after first contact, while Josh McCray has been a red-zone option with Stockton on goal-line attempts. Georgia ranks 10th nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Action Network's betting power ratings project Georgia -5, prompting an initial play on the Rebels at +7 in early-week wagering in the Action App.
Considering Georgia's tackling excellence and its ability to stop inside zone, there's a real chance Ole Miss will have more success against the Bulldogs' secondary in creating scoring opportunities.
The Georgia offense will have no issues controlling the line of scrimmage and running into red-zone attempts on most possessions.
The Ole Miss offense will have deep strikes through the arm of Chambliss, but there will be no resistance against Georgia's ground game.
Check out Collin's full Ole Miss-Georgia breakdown and more in his Week 8 card:
Pick: Georgia TT Over 31.5 (-115, DraftKings)
| | | | | |
Purdue vs Northwestern Picks
By Stuckey
I believe we are getting some inflation in the market after Northwestern beat the corpse of Penn State in Happy Valley.
Meanwhile, Purdue has been extremely unlucky over the past two weeks in a pair of misleading final scores against Illinois and Minnesota.
Against the Illini, the Boilermakers had the significantly better Net Success Rate (something Ohio State can't say). Still, they just couldn't overcome a pair of critical fumbles and the loss of senior captain cornerback Tony Grimes, which led to countless communication issues and coverage busts on the backend.
Then, last week against the Gophers, Purdue finished with more than 200 total yards of offense but couldn't overcome a minus-three turnover margin that was capped off by a game-winning pick-six in the fourth quarter, which the Boilermakers entered with a touchdown lead.
Following four straight losses (three against ranked foes) that certainly weren't helped by a minus-nine turnover margin, it's time to buy Purdue against a Northwestern team coming off its biggest program win in quite some time, especially considering I have Purdue power rated as the superior team on the road against a team without significant home-field advantage.
From a matchup perspective, Northwestern wants to lean on its ground game, but that's where the Purdue defense has excelled.
It has only allowed 4.0 yards per attempt despite playing one of the nation's most demanding schedules, with matchups against some of the most dynamic backs in the country. The Boilermakers did a nice job containing UCS's Waymond Jordan, held Minnesota's Darius Taylor to 32 yards on 14 attempts, and held the Illini to under three yards per carry on 41 attempts.
So, don't be surprised if we see a few Preston Stone turnovers on known passing downs. Stone owns the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the country among 102 quarterbacks with at least 150 drop-backs, trailing only the now-benched Malachi Nelson at UTEP.
Meanwhile, Ryan Browne should continue his very nice season against an attackable Wildcat coverage unit, especially considering Purdue should have no issues getting its ground game going against a Northwestern run defense that has allowed five yards per carry (110th).
I basically project this game as a coin flip, so give me the road dog catching over a field goal in a good situational spot with some potential positive turnover regression on the horizon.
Check out all of Stuckey's situational spots:
Pick: Purdue +3 (-115, bet365)
| | | | | |
Texas State vs Marshall Picks
This is a matchup between an unstoppable force and an immovable object.
On one hand, Buffalo hasn’t been able to build a margin against anybody. The Bulls are 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season, with a loss to Troy, a three-point win over Kent State, and a one-point victory against Eastern Michigan.
Meanwhile, everybody has pulled away from UMass. The Minutemen are the nation’s worst team by a wide margin. Temple beat them by 32, Western Michigan beat them by 18, and Kent State beat them by 36.
The offense is pitiful, averaging under 240 yards per game. They’ve scored just 32 points against FBS teams on five total touchdowns.
Buffalo has the MAC’s best defense, with an elite run defense behind All-Conference linebacker Red Murdock, a tackling machine in the middle of the field.
The Bulls are one-dimensional on offense, but Al-Jay Henderson should run all over the Minutemen, and Ta’Quan Roberson can use his legs while working on the passing game with little resistance.
Ultimately, Buffalo might only need to score 17 points to cover. I don’t know if UMass scores.
Check out all of Ianniello's Group of 5 picks for Week 8:
Pick: Texas State -2.5 (-110, bet365)
| | | | | |
Ole Miss vs Georgia Player Prop
By Doug Ziefel
When you look at his numbers, fading Ole Miss tight end Dae'Quan Wright appears to be a very risky proposition. After all, he's exceeded this total in four of six games this season and has not posted less than 64 yards in any of those overs.
However, a closer look reveals that Wright has done this on unsustainable levels of efficiency. He averages 2.7 receptions per game on 4.5 targets, but he's made those receptions count as he's racked up an average of 28.7 yards per catch.
While his ability to make a big play is respectable, that type of output is an outlier for a tight end, and he doesn't have the volume to continue that, especially against a good defense like the one he faces this week in Georgia.
No tight end has recorded more than 33 receiving yards against the Bulldogs this season, and that level of output gives up plenty of leeway with this total. Fade Wright with confidence, as his hot streak is bound to come to an end.
Pick: Dae'Quan Wright Under 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Hard Rock)
| | | | | |
SMU vs Clemson Picks
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities.
The underdog in this range is typically between +2 and +11.5 and often enters the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities where perception has more influence than true performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
You don't have to give me an excuse to fade Clemson. I was low on the Tigers in the preseason, and I'm lower on them now after their gross 3-3 start. While they've dominated Boston College and North Carolina over the past two weeks — by a combined score of 79-20 — I don't think that proves much and might only serve to make them overvalued.
SMU needs to improve on both sides of the rock, but I think the Mustangs are due for some positive late-down regression. While they rank 47th nationally in early-downs EPA per Play, they also rank 101st in late-downs EPA per Play.
Also, let's not forget that SMU has revenge on its mind after last year's ACC Championship game.
Pick: SMU +5.5 (-110, bet365)
| | | | | |
Breese's Full Action App Card
Need more bets for Saturday's card? It's always wise to see what our guy Breese is betting on every Saturday!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
| | | | | |
