Let's close off Week 12 with a bang.
Collin Wilson covers Texas visiting Florida in a major SEC battle, while Stuckey will target a lower-level Group of 5 game between Louisiana Tech and Washington State.
Mike Calabrese is betting some more C-USA football, while Doug Ziefel is locked in on a Florida-Ole Miss player prop.
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College Football Best Bets for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas vs. Georgia Pick
Texas lost both games against Georgia in 2024 despite allowing only 4.1 yards per play and scooping five turnovers.
The loss was more about offensive play-calling in scoring opportunities, racking up an abysmal 1.8 points per trip in more than a half-dozen possessions that crossed the Georgia 40-yard line.
The Longhorns had the lead during the first quarter and first half of the SEC Championship, yet another win when fading Georgia early in games.
Texas currently has a +4.3 scoring differential in the first quarter of games in 2025, well ahead of Georgia at -0.4.
Action Network's betting power ratings call for Georgia to win this game by a touchdown, but no pregame bet can be made with the expectation of being behind early.
A live bet is always recommended on Georgia with respect to the Middle 8, as the Bulldogs rank 24th compared to the Longhorns at 84th.
However, there may be room for a wager on the Over with a projection of 53.
Both defenses are at a disadvantage in Finishing Drives. Texas has a massive edge in pass explosives against the back end of the Georgia defense.
Read Collin's full Week 12 card here:
Pick: Over 49 or Better
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Louisiana Tech vs. Washington State Pick
By Stuckey
Louisiana Tech finds itself in one of the worst situations of the entire season.
After a devastating one-point loss at Delaware in which the Hens scored twice in the final 30 seconds after recovering an onside kick, Louisiana Tech now must travel all the way across the country from Newark to Pullman for a non-conference game against a Cougars team coming off of a much-needed bye following four road games (including two out east) between Sep. 27 and Nov. 1.
That extra time off may also allow a few key contributors to return from injury along both the offensive and defensive lines.
That's as vicious as it gets.
I'm not sure how locked in the Bulldogs will be for this matchup in the middle of league play — similar to what we saw from Toledo when it had to fly out west and then take a long bus ride to the Palouse in the middle of MAC play a few weeks ago in a 28-7 loss.
To make matters worse, Louisiana Tech lost starting quarterback Blake Baker to a season-ending ACL injury that he suffered last Saturday against Delaware. As a result, we will see Evan Bullock and likely more run packages for Trey Kukuk, but Washington State has excelled all season at slowing down mobile quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Washington State has been a different team since Zevi Eckhaus took over at quarterback. I'm still not sure what the Cougars were doing under center over the first month of the season. Pass protection remains a glaring issue (115th in Pressure Rate allowed), but Louisiana Tech doesn't generate much pressure (111th).
The Wazzu defense has also continued to improve as the season has progressed, holding its past five opponents to 13.2 points per game. That includes a pair of near upsets on the road against Ole Miss and Virginia — neither of which eclipsed 24 points.
Keep in mind the Cougars have also played a significantly more difficult schedule this season (54th vs. 128th, per Sagarin).
This is one of the toughest trips you will see, with astronomical home-field advantage.
I've had this spot circled since the Summer and am fine with anything at a touchdown or better.
I'd expect a focused effort from the Cougars, who need this game to have any shot at getting to a bowl in head coach Jimmy Rogers' first season.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 12 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Washington State -7 or Better
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Delaware vs. Sam Houston Pick
Sam Houston is terrible. The Bearkats can’t run the ball, they’re always behind the sticks, and they have just one win on the season — an absurdly improbable win where they were outgained 474 total yards to 157.
Delaware is having a decent season. The Hens are 5-4 overall, including 3-3 in CUSA, and have a pair of quality wins over UConn and Louisiana Tech. Their wins have aged nicely.
Quarterback Nick Minicucci continues to elevate his play and be a consistent leader in the clubhouse. He’s thrown for 740 total yards and five scores over the past two weeks.
While Delaware is technically not eligible, the Hens could still play in a bowl as long as they get to six wins and there’s a team that needs replacing — if they can’t field a whole team, for example.
With the Hens on the edge of that eligibility, I think we see a max effort from them on Saturday against a lousy Sam Houston team.
Listen to the Week 12 Group of 5 Deep Dive here:
Pick: Delaware -9.5 or Better
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Florida vs. Ole Miss Pick
By Doug Ziefel
I'm not high on Florida's offense.
However, there is value in starting running back Jadan Baugh.
Baugh's volume has been nearly game-script-proof, as he averages 16.3 carries per game and gains 5.3 yards per attempt. He has averaged 81.5 rushing yards per game, and this week takes on an Ole Miss defense that is average against the run.
Pick: Jadan Baugh Over 63.5 Rush Yards
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Utah State vs. UNLV Pick
Saturday's Mountain West game between Utah State and UNLV fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Mature Market Moves Line Freeze," this college football system looks for games where sharp money clearly favors one side but the betting line doesn't move significantly.
In the regular season, when the spread sits between one and six points, these are often closely contested games where even small market signals matter.
A large gap between the percentage of money and the percentage of tickets shows that bigger, sharper wagers are leaning in one direction, while casual bettors are spread elsewhere. As of writing, 41% of tickets have landed on Utah State, while the Aggies have gobbled up 62% of the money, according to Action Network's PRO Report.
When the spread barely shifts from open to close, it suggests bookmakers are confident in their number and are respecting sharp money rather than adjusting to public action.
This combination of tight spreads, sharp influence, and minimal movement creates situations where following the big-money side has consistently produced long-term value.
This system boasts a record of 458-320-12, good for a winning percentage of 58.9% and an ROI of 13.3%.
In addition to the significant bet and handle discrepancy found in our PRO Report, our signals show that Utah State has seen three sharp action moves.
Additionally, our PRO Projections make the Aggies closer to a +3.9 underdog than the current market, which sits at +6.
It makes sense, too.
While UNLV leads the Mountain West in scoring, Utah State sits right behind it at 33.7 points per game. Defensively, the Aggies give up nearly 30 fewer yards per game, ranking ninth in the MW in total defense and eighth in scoring defense.
The Rebels, meanwhile, rank second-to-last in both categories.
Given the matchup and the system at play, we'll back the underdog in Vegas on Saturday night.
Want more PRO betting systems? Download the Action Network App today:
Pick: Utah State +6 or Better
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