Last week was another sweat-free 2-1 week from this column.
New Mexico cruised past its team total en route to a 50-burger, Arkansas State pounded USM in Will Hall’s last game as the Golden Eagles’ head coach, and Charlotte failed to show up at all, turning it over four times in the first half against Navy.
In pursuit of a clean sweep, I’m turning to some of my favorite plays all season long: a UNLV upset, a North Texas over and an Arkansas State runaway.
Let’s dig into my college football Group of Five parlay for Week 9 below.
College Football Group of 5 Parlay for Week 9
- UNLV ML +140
- Tulane vs. North Texas Over 67.5
- Arkansas State -7.5
Parlay Odds: +794 (ESPN Bet)
Boise State vs. UNLV Pick
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 64 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 64 -110o / -110u | +140 |
The best football player in America will take the field on Friday night in Sin City.
Ashton Jeanty is truly an unstoppable force. But even Bo Jackson 2.0 can’t do everything for the Broncos. I project him to go for 225 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns, but if UNLV executes its offensive game plan to perfection, that gaudy stat line won’t be enough.
It starts with UNLV’s offensive line. The Rebels' Go-Go Offense has a lot of sex appeal, but it wouldn’t work without the big hog mollies up front.
The UNLV offensive line is one of the best run-blocking units in America, and when they run behind Outland Trophy candidate Tiger Shanks on the right side, good things happen.
The Rebs are top-30 in run EPA while running behind Shanks on the right side. As an entire unit, PFF rates them as the 24th-best run-blocking team.
Staying on schedule, ahead of the sticks, is crucial against Boise’s elite pass rush.
When the Broncos put teams in third-and-seven or worse, they dial up cover-1 pressure and get to the quarterback. That’s why Boise leads the nation in sacks with an eye-popping 4.83 per game.
When Boise is creating situational football that favors its scheme, it's generating a ton of defensive Havoc (12th). But when you get yourself in third-and-manageable, with the threat of the run still on the table, Boise really struggles to get off the field.
It explains why the Broncos are 117th in third-down conversion defense. When you combine this line with the razor-sharp decision-making of Hajj-Malik Williams, I like UNLV to convert north of 50% of its third-down attempts while avoiding sacks.
Once you avoid drive-killing sacks, you can start to carve up this Broncos secondary. Boise is 95th in plays of 30+ yards surrendered this season. When the Broncos don’t get home with a standard rush or blitz, teams are successfully hitting explosives against them.
That’s good news for a UNLV offense that has big-play threats in Jacob De Jesus and Ricky White III. In the past six games, De Jesus has at least one reception of 34 yards or more out of the slot. And White has been an absolute menace since HMW took over as UNLV’s QB1.
With Matthew Sluka as the Rebs’ quarterback, White averaged a line of 3.3/42/1 per game. With Williams behind center? Try 9/122/1.5. He’s back to All-American levels.
UNLV’s special teams have been beyond elite this season, which should come in handy should this turn into a one-possession game late.
In a move reminiscent of Beamer Ball, special teams coordinator James Shibest has unleashed White as a punt block specialist. White has blocked three and returned one for a touchdown.
Toss in freshman placekicker Caden Chittenden — who's 17-for-19 on the season (4/5 from 40+) — and you like the Rebels' chances to turn this game on special teams.
And last but not least, I still need to be convinced that Maddux Madsen is the right choice for the Broncos at quarterback. He’s certainly done a great job protecting the football, but other than that, he’s simply turned around and handed the ball to Jeanty.
Can he win them a game in the fourth quarter when the pressure is on? Against Oregon, he finished 17-for-40 for 148 yards.
That won’t cut it against a UNLV defense that's generated 16 turnovers in seven games (7th).
I would play UNLV down to +125 on the moneyline.
Leg 1: UNLV ML +140
Tulane vs. North Texas Pick
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 67 -105o / -115u | -320 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 67 -105o / -115u | +250 |
North Texas is the over team in college football. Against FBS opponents, overs have cashed in all six North Texas games this season.
And they haven’t just cashed, these games have flown past the closing totals by an average of 17 points per game.
The Mean Green are an over-bettor’s dream because they're a quintessential half-team. North Texas is top-six in both points and yards per game. It's also bottom-10 in the same statistics on the defensive side of the football.
Given the high volume of drop backs, UNT’s offensive line does a great job protecting Chandler Morris (2.17 sacks per game). Conversely, the Mean Green never get home, ranking 133rd in pass rush this season.
That last stat is crucial here because Tulane’s Darian Mensah dominates from a clean pocket and struggles when he’s under pressure.
In the four games where Mensah faced seven or fewer pressures, the Green Wave offense averaged 52 points per game. In the other three games, he faced an average of 14 pressures, and TU’s scoring dipped to 23 points per game.
North Texas’ preferred tempo will also play an outsized role in this game. The Mean Green operate at the fifth-quickest tempo (21.3 seconds between plays), which means more opportunities for big plays on both sides.
Through seven games, UNT has generated 25 plays of 30+ yards from scrimmage, while allowing 19 of those chunk plays to their opponents. That’s 44 plays of 30+ yards in UNT games, the second-highest explosive play total in the country.
This game will feature non-stop fireworks, and I would play this over all the way up to a flat 70.
Leg 2: Over 67.5
Troy vs. Arkansas State Pick
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Arkansas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -305 |
Last year, Troy was the bully on the block in the Sun Belt. It went 7-1 in SBC play and nuked App State in the league’s title game by 26 points.
The Trojans' reign of terror also included a 37-3 beatdown of the Red Wolves, so this qualifies as a revenge game.
What’s happened since the last time these two teams met to make me side with Arkansas State this time around? A complete coaching and roster overhaul for Troy … and not the good kind.
Troy lost its starting quarterback, NFL-bound running back and its top three pass catchers. Head coach Jon Sumrall, a rising star at just 42 years of age, was poached by Tulane. These changes have essentially created a Year 0 for the Trojans.
Troy’s quarterback Goose Crowder had his moments in games against Nevada and Florida A&M. The offense was functional with Crowder leading the way, but he’s been lost for the season. His replacements alternate between taking sacks and turning the ball over.
Whether it’s Matthew Caldwell or Tucker Kilcrease, PFF rates this offense in the bottom 10 without Crowder.
On the Arkansas State side of things, the Red Wolves weathered the paycheck storm, taking seven-figure paydays from Iowa State and Michigan. They lost both, but they didn’t lose any key players to injury.
At 4-3, they’re positioned to make a bowl game and potentially make a run at the SBC title game if everything goes to plan down the stretch.
That plan centers around an offense with an arsenal of weaponry.
Running back Ja’Quez Cross gives Arkansas State a high floor, generating 393 all-purpose yards in its three conference games thus far. Courtney Jackson and Corey Rucker will vie for All-Conference honors at wide receiver.
And then there’s Jaylen Raynor. The true sophomore has flashed poise, athleticism and a knack for always making the right decision in both the passing and running games.
If this offense can replicate its performance from last week – 44 points, 467 yards – it’ll be on its defense to hold Troy in check. I was encouraged to see some real distribution from the front (11 TFLs), which led to three takeaways.
Given the Trojans' deficiencies on offense, I’m banking on a repeat performance and a three-score runaway in favor of the Red Wolves at Centennial Bank Stadium.
I would play this to the edge of 10, laying 9.5 with Butch Jones and the Red Wolves.
Leg 3: Arkansas State -7.5
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