At the two-year mark since the 2022 offseason, both Stanford and TCU find themselves at a crossroads, which I'll detail in my TCU vs. Stanford prediction.
The Cardinal went on a search for a new head coach after the departure of David Shaw, ultimately landing Troy Taylor from FCS Sacramento State. Taylor's success speaks for itself, finishing with at least nine wins every season and a 12-1 record in 2022.
After a loss in the FCS Quarterfinals, the innovative uptempo offense would land in Palo Alto. Stanford surprised in Taylor’s first season as head coach, landing two road upsets over Colorado and Washington State as a double-digit underdog.
On the other side, Sonny Dykes enters his third season with TCU two years removed from a run to the National Championship. However, the vibes have changed in Fort Worth after a 5-7 season that saw the Horned Frogs take a step back after losing more experience than any other FBS team.
With both of these teams in desperate need of a hot start, an opening victory can change the narrative for either program. So, which side will get off to that hot start?
TCU vs. Stanford Prediction
- TCU vs Stanford Pick: Stanford +9 or Better
My TCU-Stanford best bet is on the Cardinal to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs. Stanford Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 58 -115o / -105u | -310 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 58 -115o / -105u | +250 |
TCU vs. Stanford Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Can Frogs Bounce Back?
Kendal Briles remains the offensive coordinator for the Horned Frogs, and the personnel and scheme match the identity of Dykes' Air Raid philosophies.
The Horned Frogs struggled on the offensive line last season, ranking mid-FBS in pass blocking for a scheme that runs on just 44% of snaps.
The issues could continue due to a lack of experience in the trench. The transfer portal was in heavy use with only guard/center combo Coltin Deery returning to a full-time role.
Center and Texas native James Brockermeyer transfers from Alabama with limited experience, while guard Carson Bruno started 23 consecutive games for Louisiana Tech. San Diego State transfer Cade Bennett was expected to be a large contributor to the offensive line but never participated in fall camp for undisclosed reasons.
Protection will be paramount for quarterback Josh Hoover, as the sophomore struggled in a crowded pocket. Opponents that forced pressure against TCU saw a drop of 20% in Hoover’s adjusted completion percentage and a spike that doubled his turnover-worthy play rate.
The good news is the weapons surrounding Hoover, starting with slot JP Richardson leading the team in targets. The senior averaged an explosive two yards per route run to complement wideout Savion Williams.
TCU fell to 66th in Passing EPA, as Hoover struggled in creating explosives against Cover 2 and quarters looks from opposing secondaries.
The numbers indicate that Stanford's 2023 defense was one of the worst in all of college football, ranking dead last in Finishing Drives and rush explosives allowed.
If there's a caveat to the numbers that all rank bottom-10 on defense, tackling fundamentals were a strong point for “Director of Defense” Bobby April. Stanford finished 69th in tackle grading, per PFF, and 21st in broken tackles allowed.
More than 80% of the defense returns from a season ago, led by linebackers Gaethan Bernadel and Tristan Sinclair. Both players combined for 124 tackles and 60 stops, serving as building blocks to improve a poor 2-4-5 defense from last year.
Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview: No Problems on Offense
Taylor continues to be a headache for opposing defensive coordinators. The Cardinal offense uses a combination of shotgun and pistol with 11 and 12 personnel and a heavy 60% motion rate.
Stanford elected to go no-huddle on 63% of snaps while nearly never showing the same alignment pre-snap.
Taylor used 12 different formations in third-down attempts in single games against Oregon, California and Washington State. While there's an even run-pass balance for the Cardinal, Taylor called nearly as many trick plays as zone read options.
Ashton Daniels returns under center, serving as a dual-threat operator of Taylor’s offense.
Daniels had a split distribution of 434 rushing yards on scrambles and designed run calls while throwing for more than 2,200 yards.
The sophomore must improve a big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate that both fall at 4.7%.
Daniels also gets his most valuable weapon back in wideout Elic Ayomanor, who generated 107 targets for more than 1,000 yards and 2.3 yards per route run.
Just felt like posting a video of Travis Hunter’s father
Elic Ayomanor
13 catches,294 yards and 3 touchdowns😮💨😮💨
— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) July 22, 2024
TCU made a change at coordinator on the defensive side, relieving Joe Gillespie of his duties in favor of former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos.
The Horned Frogs elected to move from a three- to a four-man front with the intention of stopping the opposing rush.
The timing could not have been worse for the portal news on the defensive line, as interior Damonic Williams — one of the nation's most sought-after players — ultimately ended up at Oklahoma.
TCU fell to 107th in pass rush a season ago with questions remaining throughout the defensive line. The linebacker unit will have experience with Namdi Obiazor and Kaleb Elarms-Orr, although both players graded poorly in coverage.
The secondary does return Bud Clark at free safety after logging eight passes defensed a season ago.
With a new defensive scheme, trench losses in the portal and an on-target allowed rank of 98th, the Horned Frogs will have their hands full with Stanford's offense.
My TCU vs. Stanford Prediction: Why to Bet the Cardinal
TCU lost four of its final five games to end 2023, falling a single victory short of bowl season. Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma all scored at least 35 points down the stretch, including a 69-point outburst by the Sooners.
A change was needed on the defensive side of the ball, but the move from Gillespie to Avalos may not resolve a Havoc rank of 121st. While Gillespie's 3-3-5 focused more on jamming the tackle box, the 4-2-5 will emphasize containment and improving a Rushing Success rank of 77th.
Avalos had declining numbers on defense during his time at Oregon and Boise State, an area of caution when paired with Briles' uptempo offense.
The Stanford offense can be a handful for undisciplined defenses, finishing last season at 24th in broken tackles.
Taylor has had all summer to come up with a game plan against the Horned Frogs, a variable that paid dividends last season. Stanford beat both Hawaii and Colorado with a combined 83 points in games when he had extra time to prepare.
Expect Daniels and Ayomanor to give opposing defenses trouble — especially a Horned Frogs defense that lacks consistency in tackling and defending balls in the air.
On the other side of the ball, there's no reason to believe Stanford can make large gains in the defensive analytics. The real test will be a secondary that plays primarily quarters in coverage snaps, a scheme Hoover had consistent issues against.
With an Action Network projection that calls for TCU to win by less than a touchdown, look to take the points with Stanford in an expected shootout.
My Pick: Stanford +9 or Better
How to Watch TCU vs. Stanford Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA |
| Date: | Friday, Aug. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
TCU vs. Stanford Weather
