It's the final Tuesday of October, which means today marks the last day of Tuesday night Conference USA and Sun Belt action.
Luckily, before we know it, weekday MACtion will pick back up and satiate our college football thirst in the middle of the week. But until then, let's make the most of what we have.
Our college football writers broke down all three Tuesday night games. So, whether you're looking to bet New Mexico State vs. FIU and Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston in CUSA or Louisiana vs. Texas State in the Sun Belt, we have you covered.
Let's dive into our Tuesday college football picks and NCAAF predictions below — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Wednesday night college football betting coverage.
Tuesday College Football Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
New Mexico State vs. FIU Pick
By John Feltman
Another glorious weekday Conference USA clash is on deck in Miami, Florida, as the New Mexico State Aggies (2-5, 1-3 CUSA) take on the Florida International Panthers (2-6, 1-3).
The Aggies are coming off a bye, but they took care of business in a thrilling 33-30 overtime victory over Louisiana Tech the week prior.
Meanwhile, FIU suffered a tough loss to Sam Houston last week. The Panthers lost, 10-7, but they covered the spread in a game that saw both offenses struggle.
The quarterback situation is a mess heading into the matchup, as both teams have questions about who will start. Oddsmakers have installed the Panthers as 9.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 44.
Let's dive into my New Mexico State vs. FIU predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
New Mexico State Aggies
The biggest question for the Aggies heading into the matchup is who will start at quarterback. Quarterbacks Parker Awad and Brandon Nunez saw playing time in the last game against Louisiana Tech, and Nunez took over late in the third quarter.
Nunez completed 3-of-5 passes but chipped in two touchdowns on the ground. He propelled the Aggies to victory in OT, so he's the favorite to start the game against the Panthers.
Nunez gives New Mexico State the best chance to win, which is saying little for a unit that has struggled most of the season. The Aggies are a heavy rush offense, ranking 27th in the country in rushes per game.
There are many question marks on offense, and if you take away their last victory, it's hard to say many positives about them. They enter Tuesday's game 112th in Offensive EPA and 116th in starting field position, so they've been dealt rags whenever their offense hits the field.
They can't consistently complete a forward pass, so the ground game has done most of the damage. Running back Seth McGowan has mad a big impact on the ground, averaging over five yards per carry.
The FIU secondary is its defense's strength, so I expect little success through the air for the Aggies. The Panthers rank 118th in Defensive EPA/Rush, so there's a path for the Aggies to run their methodical, run-heavy offense to establish success.
The NMSU defense has been a disaster, but the FIU offense currently deals with many issues. The Aggies get a break facing a struggling unit, and they did have a bye week to prepare for the matchup.
The one outlier is that the Aggies defense has forced its opponents into many challenging third-down situations, making life difficult for opposing offenses. Given that it's unknown who will start at quarterback for the Panthers, I give a slight bump to a New Mexico State defense that has been gashed all season.
With an extra week to prepare and install new schematic changes on both sides of the ball, the Aggies are live to win the game outright.
It will be a rough watch, but if they can establish their run game, there's a path for them to limit possessions for the Panthers and allow their defense to see the field as little as possible.
FIU Panthers
The Panthers offense failed them last week, and they had a golden opportunity to steal a home victory against a decent Sam Houston team. The Bearkats didn't have their starting quarterback available, so it would've been a great way for the Panthers to bounce back after a loss to UTEP.
Unfortunately for FIU, starting quarterback Keyone Jenkins was benched in the second quarter, and Chayden Peery played the remainder of the game. Peery threw a touchdown pass, but it was clear that the FIU offense was moving in slow motion.
I assume Jenkins will get another crack at starting, but given that the Panthers are 2-6 on the season, anything is possible.
Regardless of who starts under center, the offense has to wake up. FIU enters this matchup outside the top 115 in EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass. It has struggled to build offensive momentum, so we may see multiple quarterbacks taking snaps.
The Panthers have also been horrific on the third down, ranking near the bottom of the FBS in Success Rate on money downs. Building offensive momentum is only possible if you can move the chains on third down.
The secondary has been the unit's bright spot defensively. However, I wouldn't expect many passing attempts from the Aggies regardless of who starts at quarterback.
The Panthers also been an excellent team on third down, making it difficult for opposing offenses to convert in those situations. Ultimately, this is a good matchup for the defense with so many uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball for New Mexico.
Still, NMSU can run the ball consistently, an area where the FIU defense has struggled. If the Aggies' run game is cooking, it might be challenging for the Panthers defense to get off the field.
I can't lay the points with the FIU. There are far too many uncertainties on offense that give me cause for concern.
New Mexico State vs. FIU Prediction
There are several ways to bet the game, but my strongest lean is taking the points with New Mexico State. It should be a slow grinder of a game with both teams utilizing their rushing attacks.
It's scary given how poor the Aggies defense has been, but there's a legitimate path to cover the number and perhaps win the game outright.
At quarterback, Nunez fits the offensive scheme much better than Awad, so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets most of the snaps.
All the Aggies need to do is move the ball consistently on the ground, which will cause an excess amount of clock to burn. Playing keep-away should be the focus, which will prevent a struggling Panthers offense from having extra opportunities to put points on the board.
With a low total, I have a lot of comfort backing the Aggies getting more than a touchdown.
Pick: New Mexico State +9.5 (Play to +7)
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Louisiana vs. Texas State Pick
One of the best teams in the Group of 5 hopes to keep its slim College Football Playoff hopes alive, as Louisiana and Texas State meet for some Tuesday night Sun Belt action.
The visiting Ragin’ Cajuns (6-1, 3-0 SBC) are yet to drop a conference game this season and even own a 3-point win over Wake Forest in their only game against Power 4 competition.
Texas State (4-3, 2-1) may not have long-shot CFP aspirations, but the Bobcats are still in the thick of the Sun Belt race.
Despite the difference in resume and records, Louisiana opened as a road 'dog of +3.5 with the over/under at 58.5. Will the Ragin' Cajuns keep their perfect conference record intact?
Let's get to my Louisiana vs. Texas State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
It took a pair of ho-hum seasons to get there, but head coach Michael Desormeaux finally has Louisiana on the precipice of where it stood before Billy Napier left for Gainesville.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have reeled off four straight wins since dropping losing to Tulane and have used one of the more efficient passing offenses in the country to secure bowl eligibility.
Quarterback Ben Wooldridge leads the fourth-best Pass Success offense in the FBS and has completed over 69% of his passes with 15 passing touchdowns.
The offensive line, which has only allowed 23 tackles for loss on the season (fourth-best mark nationally) has been crucial to this offense's success. The line has helped running backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry each average north of 6.3 yards per carry in Louisiana’s balanced offensive approach.
While the offense has been smooth sailing for the Ragin’ Cajuns, the defense hasn’t been as consistent, ranking outside the top 100 in both Rush Success allowed and Havoc.
Texas State does most of its damage through the air but does have a strong ground game led by Ismail Mahdi that could pose a problem for Louisiana.
One strength of Louisiana's defense is its ability to make teams earn their way down the field. No Sun Belt team has been better at limiting explosive plays than the Ragin’ Cajuns, who have allowed 11 fewer 10-yard-plus plays than the next closest conference foe.
Texas State Bobcats
G.J. Kinne needed just one season to take Texas State to its first bowl game and needs just two wins over the Bobcats’ final five games to get his team to another.
The transfer portal is always a gamble when it comes to the quarterback position, but the Bobcats have been one of the big winners in landing James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud.
The reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year has picked up right where he left off and is again leading the conference in passing touchdowns with 20.
McCloud’s 270.1 yards per game is second-best in the Sun Belt and 16th nationally. And led by Joey Hobert’s 499 yards and seven touchdowns, four different Bobcats have over 275 yards receiving and at least three receiving touchdowns.
The Bobs also have a strong ground game. Texas State has rushed for at least 195 yards on four occasions this season and has four players with at least 30 carries who average more than 5.0 yards per carry.
Texas State ranks third in the Sun Belt in overall defense but has struggled to bottle up the run in recent weeks.
Over the past four games, the Bobcats have allowed 181 yards rushing per game, including a disastrous outing against Sam Houston in which the Bearkats rushed for 298 yards and five touchdowns.
Louisiana vs. Texas State Prediction
Tuesday marks the fourth game in five weeks that Louisiana has to play on the road, but that’s proved to be anything but an obstacle. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a perfect 4-0 straight up away from home and 3-1 ATS.
Texas State, however, is the best Sun Belt team Louisiana has faced this season, and I’m not sure the Ragin’ Cajuns will be able to slow the Bobcats offense.
McCloud is putting together another league-leading season, and if Louisiana devotes too many resources to slowing him, Texas State’s running game is talented enough to expose its weakness in the front seven.
This game feels like a coin-flip, so I'll focus on the most certain aspect of this matchup — the Bobcats offense — and back the home side to score at least 31 points for the fourth time in five games.
Pick: Texas State Team Total Over 30.5
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Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Pick
By John Feltman
It's a loaded Conference USA on Tuesday evening, as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-4, 2-2 CUSA) travel to Huntsville, Texas, to take on the Sam Houston Bearkats (6-2, 3-1).
The Bearkats narrowly defeated FIU last week, 10-7, as starting quarterback Hunter Watson did not play due to a concussion. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs beat UTEP, 14-10, in an ugly home win, putting up a nasty 258 yards on offense.
Sam Houston will be a big step up in competition, so it'll be interesting to see how head coach Sonny Cumbie's team responds.
Oddsmakers have Sam Houston as a -10.5 home favorite with the over/under sitting at 45.5.
Let’s jump right into my Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Bulldogs barely scraped by against UTEP last week, and it's concerning that their offense has continued to struggle. The Bulldogs scored 30 points against New Mexico State two weeks ago but still lost the game in overtime.
Quarterback Evan Bullock has been an upgrade over Jack Turner, throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions, but the offensive line has been a disaster. In fact, Bullock has been sacked 14 times.
Staying on the offensive line, the Bulldogs' offensive philosophy essentially abandons the running game. They're near dead last in Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Play on the ground.
It's been an outright disaster, primarily due to the lack of running lines the offensive front still needs to provide. I expect few rushing attempts here, as the uptempo approach will rely on the passing attack.
It would be fine if the Bulldogs had a successful aerial attack, but they rank 108th in Passing Success Rate. Granted, those metrics are based on both Turner and Bullock, but the matchup is tough against a solid Bearkats secondary.
The bright side is that defense is their strength. The matchup against the Kats seems manageable on paper, but they're a much superior offensive team with Watson under center.
The Bulldogs rank 11th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 26th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. They've been an outstanding unit on third down and have created extremely tough situations for opponents from a distance perspective.
Sam Houston's offense has struggled on third down, so LA Tech has the clear edge in that category. Cumbie's team also ranks 13th in available yards, so the defense has been impressive.
My lone concern is that the Bulldogs allowed 33 points to New Mexico State two weeks ago, so how legitimate is their overall defense? However, the data speaks for itself, and there are encouraging signs that they can hold their own against the Bearkats.
Sam Houston Bearkats
Sam Houston's offense looked wholly lost with Watson out against FIU last week.
With him returning to the lineup, the Bearkats get a significant offensive upgrade, and they'll need him for a tough assignment. The offense could have better Success Rate metrics, but it's an improved group from a season ago.
The Kats were the laughingstock of college football offenses last season, but now they've suddenly found an identity. They love running uptempo and leaning on their ground attack with Watson under center.
Their offense has improved because it has been effective on the ground and through the air. Although the offense involves a lot of running, its aerial attack has been above average.
However, as much as I like their offensive edge in the matchup, they will struggle against a tough Bulldogs defense.
Defensively, I love the matchup for the Kats. Despite Bullock’s effectiveness for the Bulldogs offense, it’s been a real struggle for them.
Sam Houston has been excellent against the run, and LA Tech can’t run the ball at all. The Bearkats will be challenged through the air, but they have the talent on the back end to hold their opposition at bay.
I don’t expect as much success for the Bulldogs offense as many may think, especially after last week’s performance. The Bulldogs couldn’t score on a struggling UTEP defense, which makes me believe the Kats' stop unit is primed for a big day.
Even though I lean toward Sam Houston, 10.5 points is far too many to swallow here. However, its defense should continue to find success against the Bulldogs' nonexistent run game.
Louisiana Tech vs. Sam Houston Prediction
The most apparent play to me is the under. A lot of public money has come in on the over, but I don’t see a world where this becomes a high-scoring slugfest.
Both offenses run at a fast tempo, but it’s a tough matchup for both units. The Bulldogs defense has been excellent and should hold its own — even with Watson playing for the Bearkats.
On the other side, Sam Houston's secondary has been strong, which is perfect for combating the Bulldogs' pass-heavy offense. Ultimately, I envision a lot of longer drives but fewer touchdowns on the board.
Sam Houston should prevail, but I don’t trust it enough to lay the large number. It's the under all the way for me.
Pick: Under 45.5 (Play to 45)
