The Utah State Aggies take on the UNLV Rebels in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, Nov. 15. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UNLV is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. Utah, meanwhile, sits at +6 and is +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 70 total points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. UNLV prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
Utah State vs UNLV Prediction
- Utah State vs. UNLV Pick: Utah State +6
My UNLV vs. Utah State best bet is on the Aggies to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Utah State vs UNLV Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 70 -110o / -112u | +200 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 70 -110o / -112u | -245 |
- Utah State vs UNLV Spread: UNLV -6, Utah State +6
- Utah State vs UNLV Over/Under: 70 Points
- Utah State vs UNLV Moneyline: Utah State +200, UNLV -245
Utah State vs UNLV Preview
Saturday's Utah State vs. UNLV Mountain West game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Mature Market Moves Line Freeze," this college football system looks for games where sharp money clearly favors one side but the betting line doesn't move significantly.
In the regular season, when the spread sits between one and six points, these are often closely contested games where even small market signals matter.
A large gap between the percentage of money and the percentage of tickets shows that bigger, sharper wagers are leaning in one direction, while casual bettors are spread elsewhere. As of writing, 41% of tickets have landed on Utah State, while the Aggies have gobbled up 62% of the money, according to Action Network's PRO Report.
When the spread barely shifts from open to close, it suggests bookmakers are confident in their number and are respecting sharp money rather than adjusting to public action.
This combination of tight spreads, sharp influence and minimal movement creates situations where following the big-money side has consistently produced long-term value.
This system boasts an all-time record of 458-320-12, good for a winning percentage of 58.9% and an ROI of 13.3%.
Utah State vs UNLV Pick, Betting Analysis
In addition to the significant bet and handle discrepancy found in our PRO Report, our signals show that Utah State has seen three sharp action moves.
Additionally, our PRO Projections make the Aggies closer to a +3.9 underdog as opposed to the current market, which sits at +6.
It makes sense, too.
While UNLV leads the Mountain West in scoring, Utah State sits right behind it at 33.7 points per game. Defensively, the Aggies give up nearly 30 fewer yards per game, ranking ninth in the MW in total defense and eighth in scoring defense.
The Rebels, meanwhile, rank second-to-last in both categories.
Given the matchup and the system at play, we'll back the underdog in Vegas on Saturday night.
Pick: Utah State +6
Utah State vs UNLV Betting Trends
