For the sixth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
We put up a donut last week after I completely whiffed with Purdue. While Collin also didn't get to the window, I give him a ton of credit for rolling with a massive underdog in Southern Miss, which actually looked extremely live in the fourth quarter before fading away late. That's two straight bigger dogs that had plenty of juice in the fourth quarter for Mr. Wilson, so hopefully we can find one of those to finish off an upset before the season's end.
- 2018-22: 60-98, +8.3 units
- 2023: 7-11, +2.05 units
- Overall: 67-107, +11.35 units
This week, we are rolling with a pair of Conference USA pups in prime time. Who needs LSU-Alabama or Washington-USC anyways?
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays around 8.5-1 odds.
Stuckey: Middle Tennessee +145
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
For starters, this is a major fade of a New Mexico State squad that, similar to last season, has beat up on an absolutely laughable schedule full of cupcakes. Just take a look at its wins this season:
- Western Illinois
- New Mexico
- Florida International
- Sam Houston
- UTEP
- Louisiana Tech
Keep in mind the Aggies — who should've lost to Louisiana Tech in their most recent game — also have losses against cellar dwellers in UMass and Hawaii.
Overall, they have a strength of schedule that ranks 157th, per Sagarin, which includes FCS teams. For reference, Nicholls has had a more treacherous slate, while no other FBS team ranks below 137th.
Conversely, Middle Tennessee has a schedule that ranks 83rd in difficulty after starting off the season with nonconference games against Alabama and Missouri while also facing all of the other top teams in CUSA with the basement dwellers still to come.
Additionally, the Blue Raiders have 17 days off before this matchup, giving them ample time to work out some kinks after dealing with plenty of turnover in the offseason. They'll also get healthier after a pretty grueling schedule for a team of their caliber.
For what it's worth, excluding the 2020 COVID-19 season, MTSU head coach Rick Stockstill is 5-0 ATS with more than 14 days in between games, covering by 9.5 points per game.
With three extremely winnable games to follow against FIU, UTEP and Sam Houston, Middle Tennessee should come out fully energized and focused with its preseason goal of reaching bowl eligibility still very much in reach with a win on Saturday.
Also, despite that relatively tough schedule, MTSU went 0-3 in contests decided by seven points or fewer. That included road bouts with Missouri and Liberty, which look better by the day. It also had a few other misleading final scores due to bad variance in terms of red-zone defense, turnovers and late downs on defense, especially when you consider the much rosier numbers on the more stable early-downs data. Positive regression looms.
Meanwhile, NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia has benefited from extremely good fortune. Even against a riotous schedule, he's had 17 big-time throws and 12 turnover-worthy plays, yet has thrown 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions.
Turnovers are coming for the Aggies, who have also been fortunate with fumble bounces in league play.
Ultimately, this is a strength of schedule play, which has led to the market being artificially high on NMSU and too low on MTSU.
Plus, I fancy the spot after a super extended bye for a team that needs to win out to get to bowl eligibility.
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Wilson: UTEP +290
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +295 |
An entire month of midweek Conference USA action left Western Kentucky well behind in the standings. Listed as the preseason favorite with Liberty, the Hilltoppers lost to Jacksonville State and Liberty due to primarily to poor defensive play.
Head coach Tyson Helton enjoyed success on offense with the infusion of Houston Baptist personnel, but those numbers have fallen off from the Bailey Zappe glory days.
The Hilltoppers have can't generate any success in the run game, while their pass explosiveness has dropped outside the national top 50.
While the offense hasn't lived up to expectations, the defense has fallen off a cliff after major departures in the offseason. WKU simply can't stop a nosebleed in any phase of the game, which always makes it an intriguing fade as chalk.
El Paso is the site where UTEP desperately seeks to keep its bowl chances alive in Week 10. Miner Nation sits at 3-6, outside of striking distance from the conference championship game.
UTEP has still sustained pass explosives despite injuries at quarterback. The Miners are 21st in pass explosives, an advantage over a Western Kentucky defense that struggles in passing downs.
And again, anybody can move the ball on the Hilltoppers. There's too much value to pass up on this line with the home Miners.
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