A potential Conference USA Championship preview is on hand Wednesday night, as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-2, 2-0 CUSA) travel to play Sam Houston (5-1, 2-0). The game is set to kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Bearkats and Hilltoppers meet tied for 2nd in the conference standings.
The teams are both winless against Power 4 programs, with Sam Houston dropping its matchup against UCF, while Western Kentucky lost to both Alabama and Boston College.
The visiting Hilltoppers are on short rest, having just defeated UTEP less than 1 week ago. Will that help the Bearkats in a game where they've moved from an underdog to a slight favorite?
After entering the day as a 2.5-point favorite, Sam Houston now sits at -1.5 with the over/under at 54.5.
Let's take a look at my Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 16.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Sam Houston Bearkats Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Pick: Sam Houston -2.5
My Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on the Bearkats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Spread: Sam Houston -2
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Over/Under: 55 Points
- Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Moneyline: Western Kentucky ML +105 · Sam Houston ML -125
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Preview
Western Kentucky hopped right back into the win column six days ago against UTEP, just a game removed from its heartbreaking loss at Boston College. The Hilltoppers were outscored, 14-0, in the fourth quarter of that one-point loss to the Eagles.
The losing effort two weeks ago against Boston College shows the best of what the Hilltoppers can be. Their passing attack led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp ranks tops in Conference USA with 278.8 yards passing per game and 13 total passing touchdowns.
Veltkamp has been one of the most accurate passers in the league, completing nearly 70% of his passes, but he’s made some critical errors in the turnover department. Only one other Conference USA quarterback has more than Veltkamp’s five interceptions, and his two second-half turnovers at Boston College directly led to 14 points for the Eagles.
While the Hilltopper offensive line has done a decent job in pass protection, that blocking hasn’t transferred to the ground game, where they rank 86th and 78th in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
Western Kentucky's defense has been a bit of a mixed bag as well. The Hilltoppers held Boston College to a season-low 279 total yards of offense, but they were also gouged for 514 yards by a Middle Tennessee team that will finish near the bottom of the conference standings.
The Hilltoppers boast one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 126th in Pass Success Allowed. The Western Kentucky defense allows 8.5 yards per attempt, which sits 121st in the FBS.
Sam Houston Bearkats Preview
To say Year 2 of FBS play for Sam Houston has gone much better than Year 1 would be quite an understatement.
The Bearkats were one of the last teams to pick up their first win of the season in 2023, dropping t0 0-8 before finally beating Kennesaw State.
Fast forward to 2024, and the Bearkats are in the thick of a Conference USA title race with just a lone loss on the season.
One of the biggest reasons for Sam Houston’s newfound success this year has been the development of its strong running game. The Bearkats are 11th nationally with 228.8 yards rushing per game.
The ground success has been a collaborative effort, with running backs Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney contributing 348 yards each, along with quarterback Hunter Watson’s team-leading 370 rushing yards.
Watson completes fewer than 60% of his passes, but his dual-threat skill set is responsible for 11 touchdowns through the air and on the ground.
While Sam Houston has one of the higher-scoring offenses in Conference USA, every point is needed with some of its shortcomings on defense. The Bearkats struggle the most in stopping the run, where they rank 118th and 132nd in Rush Success and Line Yards, respectively.
If there is an area of “strength,” it's Sam Houston’s pass defense, which will be important against a Western Kentucky team that prefers to move down the field through the air.
The Bearkats are second in Conference USA in both interceptions (7) and passes defended (28).
Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and Western Kentucky match up statistically:
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 40 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 57 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 105 | |
| Quality Drives | 55 | 34 | |
Sam Houston Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 92 | 39 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 41 |
| PFF Coverage | 123 | 68 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 80 | 114 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 85 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (29) | 27.8 (79) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (102) | 66% (25) |
How to Bet My Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Pick
I was a little surprised when this game opened with Sam Houston as a small home 'dog before moving to where it is now.
Western Kentucky will struggle to contain Watson and an offense that has scored at least 21 points against every Group of Five team it has played.
The Bearkats have one of the best pass rushes in Conference USA, and with the Hilltoppers looking to win this game with Veltkamp’s arm, he’s going to face too much pressure to consistently find success.
Hop on the Bearkat bandwagon now while Sam Houston has a real shot of going from one of the worst to first in the conference standings.
Pick: Sam Houston -2.5 (Play to -3)
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky College Football Betting Trends
- 39% of bets and 73% of the money are on Western Kentucky to cover the spread.
- 88% of bets and 92% of the money on the moneyline are on Sam Houston to win outright.
- 74% of bets and 78% of the money are on the over.
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Weather
