Patriots vs. Titans Odds & Betting Predictions - October 19, 2025

Is no Callahan worth a FG? Some are asking

Worth a sprinkle. Note that FanDuel counts a half sack as a win here and DK is also offering this at +244 (good at that price). Barmore has been unlucky to have 0 sacks on 20 pressures (5 quick ones). I project him closer to 2.9 sacks with that pressure profile and his +2.9 sack luck rating is the highest in the league. He’s faced a tougher stretch of QBs to bring down, especially the last 4 games, but Cam Ward will be the easiest QB to sack he will face to date, making this the perfect spot for him to finally get on the board. Projecting this closer to +150

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

On the surface this number looks low. Chig has cleared it in 4 of 6 games and with Calvin Ridley out it’s easy to assume he’ll see more targets and sail over. That’s why I’m guessing 90%+ of the action is on the over and why this number may be a bit inflated. I think there are a few factors that point to the under. Yes, Ridley being out could help Chig, but Tyjae Spears was much more involved in the passing game last week in just his second game back. He will command more targets than Tony Pollard did and Cam has already shown he’s more willing to throw to RBs the last few games. Tyler Lockett and Chimere Dike should also see more snaps and command shorter-area targets that specifically eat into Chig’s share. Fourth-round rookie Gunner Helm continues to see his role grow as well. With a new coaching regime in place, it would make sense for them to evaluate younger players, which could come directly at Chig’s expense. This is also a matchup against a Patriots defense that plays man coverage at the 6th-highest rate. Chig’s target rate drops 10% against man, and his yards per route run falls from 1.91 vs zone to 0.29 vs man — a massive 1.62 drop. The Titans are “only” 7-point underdogs here, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they rally after Brian Callahan’s firing and keep this closer than expected. Based on historical 7-point dog data, they’re actually projected to trail at a -25% lower rate than their season norm. That should lead to fewer extreme pass scripts and a more balanced approach, which hurts Chig’s volume. I project his average around 30.5 yards but his median closer to 26.5, with around a 60% chance to stay under 31.5.

Welcome to the Vrabel Bowl. Mike Vrabel returns to face his old team and could have revenge on his mind after an interesting ending with Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Titans just fired his replacement Brian Callahan, replacing him with veteran retread, Mike McCoy. Could the Titans see a dead-cat bounce post-Callahan? Home underdogs of seven or more points are 18-1-2 ATS the first eight games of the season since 2022, already responsible for Giants-Eagles and Browns-Packers upsets this season. The matchup sets up well for Drake Maye and the Patriots passing attack, though, and the Patriots will surely score some points. Typically, Josh McDaniels offenses prefer to score by running it in if they're close to the end zone. Tennessee may be happy to oblige. The Titans have already allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing RBs, at least one to every RB1 Tennessee has faced this season, and that includes multiple TDs to RBs in half those games. So which Patriots RB do we play? The answer may not be as complicated as it seems. Antonio Gibson is on IR, so he's out, and it's getting pretty clear which RB gets the looks in the red zone. Rhamondre Stevenson has 15 red zone carries already to just three for rookie TreVeyon Henderson, and he's up 8-to-1 on carries inside the 10, scoring both of his touchdowns from there. That matches what we saw last season, where five of Stevenson's seven TDs came on his 17 carries inside the 10. Keep it simple and take the short yardage back in Rhamondre Stevenson for an Anytime TD at +120 (Hard Rock), and put a piece of your bet on two scores at +450 (bet365).

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@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/bIlPMohsyXb

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Fired Coach & +7 at home. Sign me up.

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