NFL Best Bets | Week 14
Our staff has found its favorite NFL Week 14 picks for Sunday afternoon's two slates of games. Check out the spreads and totals that make up our NFL best bets we're on below. Click on a bet below to navigate this file.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Rams vs. Ravens
The market is still catching up to how improved the Rams offense is at the moment. Most casual NFL fans also probably can’t name more than one player on the Rams defense (Aaron Donald), but it’s a really young group that has found some real playmakers and quality all-around play in the last month.
The sample is small for the offense, but the Rams are fifth in EPA per play offensively since Matthew Stafford returned from injury for the Seattle game. Kyren Williams makes a huge difference right now in the running game, mostly because the other options in the backfield are so bad. The Rams rank in the top five in EPA per rush since Week 11, and that includes a game against an elite Browns defensive unit.
The Rams offense under Sean McVay was at its best with a functional running game — think Todd Gurley NFC Champion Rams — and Williams' ability in space and to run off tackle fundamentally changes the play sequencing for the Rams.
Los Angeles had no problem moving the ball up and down the field against that Cleveland defense, and I think it can replicate some of that success against another elite defense in Baltimore.
Because of the scheduling quirks, the Ravens do have one of the biggest rest advantages in the NFL in this spot. Baltimore played a Week 11 Thursday night game at home against Cincinnati on Nov. 16. When the Ravens take the field in Week 14, they’ll have played one game in 24 days.
That one game was the first since the major injury to TE Mark Andrews. Baltimore’s run offense should find success here, but Andrews is a huge loss for the offense. Lamar Jackson had a sub-60% completion rate against the Chargers, just the third time all season he's done that. It’s hard to do that against a Brandon Staley-schemed defense, but Jackson also had his lowest yards per attempt of the season.
For the second straight week, I’ll back the Rams. This time, they’re catching a touchdown against a Ravens offense that has extended rest but still has much to prove without Andrews.
Panthers vs. Saints
Are we sure this line is moving in the right direction? I'm not sure Derek Carr's return is even positive news for the Saints as poorly as he's playing, and the rest of the New Orleans injury report is an absolute disaster, right as the Panthers defense is finally starting to look pretty healthy. A typically great Saints defense has absolutely cratered in recent weeks, ranking second to last in DVOA over the last five weeks.
The Saints rank near the bottom of the league in Pass Block Win Rate, so Brian Burns and the Carolina pass rush can cause issues, while New Orleans' Pass Rush Win Rate ranks dead last and that's good news for this porous Panthers line. The Saints have rated far worse at home this season and much worse in the first half too. That sets up a script for the Panthers to hang around and compete early, and if this team gets some confidence with the new coaching staff, watch out.
Books just don't seem to be pricing the Saints for what they are, a subpar, banged-up team. The Saints are 1-8-1 ATS as favorites this year, failing to cover by 5.9 PPG and losing six of those games outright. Derek Carr is 18-37-1 ATS (33%) as a favorite and has lost 15 of the last 24 outright. Dennis Allen is 5-16-1 ATS (24%), including 1-7-1 ATS as a division favorite.
The Panthers can compete with this team — and they can beat them too.
Pick: Panthers +6 (-110) & ML
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Colts vs. Bengals
The Colts and Titans played the wildest game of Week 13, one that featured two blocked punts, a missed extra point with an emergency holder, and a Will Levis interception and forced fumble on the same play. The Colts will now travel to play the Bengals after Jake Browning played the game of his life in a Monday night upset of the Jaguars.
If you looked at the skill positions in this game, you’d rule it a no-contest in favor of the Bengals. Cincinnati’s perimeter weapons are far superior to the Colts overall and they can certainly be more explosive overall as a result. With the quarterback situation basically a wash, every other advantage goes to Indianapolis here.
This is one of the many games that will be impacted by weather in the NFL this week. The expectation is 20 mph winds and rain in Cincinnati, which will limit the ability of either offense to throw the ball down the field.
That leads me to the trenches, where there’s a clear Colts advantage on both lines. Indianapolis will also get its top run-stopper, nose tackle Grover Stewart, back from suspension for this game. The run defense was a top-10 unit with him in there and drifted outside the top 20 once he was suspended.
While Stewart was out, the Colts found a real pass rush. Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo are all tracking to have 10-sack seasons. The Colts are in the top 10 in pass rush win rate.
The biggest weakness of the Colts defense is in the secondary, but the conditions could nullify those issues. Cincinnati’s defense is bottom five in run defense this year and the entire Colts offensive line’s PFF grades have trended upward considerably this season. Indianapolis has had some good fortune go its way to get to 7-5, but the market is giving Browning and the Bengals an upgrade off Monday that is a bit overblown here.
We’ve seen a backup flash for a week before regressing to what he really is. Given the Colts trench and run game advantage, I’ll bet them at -2.5 or better in Week 14.
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Texans vs. Jets
By Simon Hunter
We get to fade a Zach Wilson lead offense and a rookie QB in bad weather. What more could you ask for, honestly?
This might be the worst weather game we’ll see all season with heavy rain and 25 mph winds predicted for Sunday. Games with 10+ mph winds are 18-5-1 to the under this season, going under the total by 5.4 points per game. Games with 10+ mph winds are 110-55-1 to the under in the last three seasons and 191-126-1 since 2018. Over the past 20 years, these unders hit at a 57.2% rate.
So, what does that mean? It means for the rest of your life, you play this spot and you’ll be a long-term winner. Now, add in that the Jets are one of the worst offenses we’ve ever seen. How can you not love this under? The Jets have had bad offensive struggles this season, which have led to Zach Wilson getting benched and Tim Boyle getting cut. And here we are again with Wilson.
The Jets as a team have 13 touchdowns in 12 games, including 10 TDs on offense. Also, this a great match-up for the Jets defense against a Houston team that’s bad on the road and has a ton of injuries on offense.
Don’t let the low total scare you off. Take this under.
Pick: Under 33 (-110)
Lions vs. Bears
The Bears defense has made significant improvements from Week 1 to now. Chicago was the worst defense in the NFL in head coach Matt Eberflus' first season, but he’s found some pieces that work and now they catch the Lions in an excellent home spot.
This total was bet down from 46.5 to 41 and now 40, which still may not be quite low enough given the weather conditions. There are 30 mph winds expected in Chicago for this game, and that spells major trouble for the Lions offense that has Jared Goff as its quarterback.
No one is going to be particularly effective in those windy conditions, but bad weather has spelled real doom for Goff in the past. Since October began and the weather would theoretically start to become a factor, the Lions have played four road games. They played at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans (dome), and at Los Angeles. The fourth road game was at Baltimore, the only game where Goff had to deal with real conditions, and that was the worst game he's played all season. Going back to his time with the Rams, it’s the same story.
The Lions can lean on their run game to try to win this game, but center Frank Ragnow is dealing with an injury and is questionable to play on Sunday. Since Week 8, Chicago is eighth in EPA per play allowed, 10th in success rate allowed and first in rush success rate allowed. The Bears run defense has really improved and that spells trouble for the Lions on the road here.
Detroit has a bottom-five secondary since then and has really struggled with mobile quarterbacks especially. The Bears had five drives of more than 5 minutes in the last meeting and there will be plenty of long, methodical drives built around the run in this game.
I lean Bears +3.5 here. I bet the total at 43 on Monday, but that number is long gone. It started Tuesday at 41 but has since dipped below 40.5 as of 3 p.m. ET. I think an alternative play would be betting the under on the Lions team total at 22.5 or higher.
Pick: Under 43 (-110)
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The Bucs definitely have the better defense, and the Falcons aren't exactly scaring anyone offensively or putting up big numbers. Atlanta will have to do its part defensively to win this one, and the script looks under. Both teams are 8-4 to the under this season, with Atlanta games averaging under 39 PPG and Tampa games under 40 PPG. Falcons games have gone under 41 in eight of 12 this season, and Bucs games are at 41 or below in eight of 12, too.
Todd Bowles road unders have been a smart angle historically at 30-17 to the under (64%), the second most profitable coach in our Action Labs system. So too for Baker Mayfield when the total is below 44 at 20-9 to the under (69%), the second most profitable quarterback. There are also trends backing the under for late-season division matchups with a home favorite under a touchdown (57% to the under) and with totals of 40-to-47 points (56%).
And then there's my favorite stat, just the perfect summary for this awful NFC South. We've had six division games played so far between the Falcons, Bucs, Saints, and Panthers. Not one of those games has even finished with 40 points. NFC South games are averaging 35.5 PPG this season, and the lowest one so far? You guessed it: Falcons-Bucs the first time around at just 29 points.
Pick: Under 41 (-110)
Vikings vs. Raiders
This game should tilt heavily toward the defenses, especially with two backup quarterbacks starting. Minnesota's defense continues to impress under Brian Flores, and the run defense has been elite lately, especially important the way the Raiders have emphasized the run under Antonio Pierce.
On the other side of things, the Raiders defense has improved a ton under Patrick Graham as the season has gone on. Vegas ranks 13th in DVOA on defense over the last five weeks, including top 10 against the pass, so this defense is rapidly improving and should now get a healthier Maxx Crosby too. The only weak spot on either defense is the Raiders' run defense, but Minnesota can't run the ball anyway.
Games featuring a home underdog have gone under 61% of the time the last three seasons, and both teams are 9-3 to the under this season.
Bills vs. Chiefs
I am happy to be catching points here with the better offense.
The only thing that has really stopped the Bills offense this season has been turnovers and the Chiefs have only created them defensively on fewer than 6% of possession over their past five games. Buffalo is coming off its bye week and should have the game plan necessary to exploit a reeling K.C. defense. Jordan Love carved up the Chiefs' secondary last week, and I expect Josh Allen to do the same in a spot that sees the Bills desperate for a win.
The Chiefs defense doesn't usually find itself in spots where its vulnerable rush defense decides games, but it's worth noting it's 31st in the league against the run, giving up 4.8 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Considering the Bills are converting 49% of their third downs this season, the league's highest rate, it's fair to expect several sustained drives from Buffalo given the success it will have on first down running the ball.
Patrick Mahomes was bothered by pressure more than usual in the Chiefs' loss in Green Bay. One reason for this is his lack of confidence in his receivers to make a play down the field. He's holding onto the ball just one count longer and with the Bills' defense being eighth in pressure rate, Buffalo should be able to get home a few times. That's all it will take to stifle a couple of drives. Until this issue is fixed for the Chiefs offense, they're overvalued in the market.
I'd bet Buffalo down to a pick'em.
Bills vs. Chiefs
The game of the week in the AFC as Buffalo fights for its playoff life at 6-6. The Bills are entering a gauntlet here with the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots (never mind) and Dolphins to close the schedule. They need four wins to have any chance. The Bills come into Kansas City with a huge rest advantage after their bye week, while Kansas City had to play a road game on Sunday night.
The market moved off of three here, but I’m not sure the Chiefs have any real advantages in this matchup. Yes, the Chiefs are better defensively in the secondary, but Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level in the last month. Buffalo put up 500+ yards on Philadelphia two weeks ago, and Allen’s scrambling on late downs was massive for extending drives.
The Bills are a top-five offense in both rushing and passing EPA per play. They couldn’t run it on Philly, but it’s considerably easier to run on the Kansas City front. Most people have had the same takes about the Chiefs offense all year. It goes something like this: “Yeah, the Chiefs don’t look quite right, but they have Patrick Mahomes, and it’s only (insert month here).” The reality? It’s December, and the Chiefs have one reliable wide receiver and Travis Kelce.
We give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt because he’s in his prime. That’s not the case for Kelce anymore. He doesn’t look nearly as explosive, his yards per reception are down and either he’s starting to show his age or he’s not fully healthy.
Buffalo will hand Kansas City a second straight loss because its offense is operating at a higher level right now. The Bills defense has improved its play in the last few weeks and now had a bye week to get right, too.
