Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment. Here's my look for NFL Week 3.
Week 3 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Titans vs. Browns
Is this the interception preview or the touchdown preview?
This game could get ugly on the turnover front with Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson, which makes betting on touchdowns in this game tricky.
For the Browns, it’s difficult to bet on running backs with Nick Chubb out for the season and the Titans only allowing 2.7 yards per carry. In the air, Tennessee lets opponents do what they want, so look at Amari Cooper at +225 if he’s recovered from the groin injury.
As for the Titans, if they get close enough to end zone, the ball is going to Derrick Henry. You could consider a flier on Tannehill to scramble for one at +700, but DeAndre Hopkins should finally get some looks with both Browns cornerbacks banged up.
Verdict: Bet Amari Cooper +230 and DeAndre Hopkins +240.
Falcons vs. Lions
As much as the Lions were a preseason darling to rocket up the NFC, their defense just isn’t there yet.
They gave up 38 points to the Seahawks, including two goal-line rushing touchdowns. Now they're facing a Falcons team that loves to run the ball at a league-leading 56% clip.
Desmond Ridder has yet to show much as a passer, so the running attack will be in full force.
Verdict: Bet Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
Saints vs. Packers
The Saints' running back room is depleted. Alvin Kamara is suspended and now Jamaal Williams is out with a hamstring injury.
Enter Taysom Hill.
We saw him get more looks in the second half against Carolina after Williams' injury and he finished with 75 rushing yards on only nine carries.
The Packers have a strong secondary, but there’s no way am I trusting Derek Carr to make sound decisions in the red zone. Hill is the way to go.
Verdict: Bet Taysom Hill at +240.
Broncos vs. Dolphins
This could be a Dolphins blowout if the Broncos aren’t careful.
Playing in the scorching heat in Miami tends to gas out defensive units quickly, which means Denver has to score first and early to ward off the initial heatwave that is Dolphins passing offense.
I’m not exactly convinced that the Broncos can execute this plan. If you are betting anyone on Denver, consider Adam Trautman and hope he isn’t just out there to block. Tight ends have scored in both weeks against the Dolphins this season.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Adam Trautman ATD at +450.
Chargers vs. Vikings
The two most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL — there’s a reason this is the highest total on the board for Week 3 (54).
I’ll give you a hint: it’s not because of the offenses, it’s because these defenses can’t stop a nosebleed.
Both teams allow over 27 PPG and have combined to give up seven touchdowns to wide receivers in two games. Not good.
With that in mind, the WR3 on each team figures to be a good look — that’s K.J. Osborn and Josh Palmer.
Verdict: Bet K.J. Osborn +290 and Josh Palmer +370.
Patriots vs. Jets
The quarterback play from each team has been horrendous to watch that I don’t think anyone wants to bet touchdowns in this game, let alone watch it.
Naturally, bettors will look to Hunter Henry at +250 since he’s scored both weeks, not to mention the the Jets gave up two touchdowns to Jake Ferguson.
But I’d rather take the Patriots defense/special teams unit and count on them to make a play on the inept Zach Wilson.
Verdict: Bet Patriots defense/special teams at +700.
Bills vs. Commanders
The Bills can overwhelm nearly any team when they’re clicking. They can also almost lose to any team when Josh Allen gets careless with the ball.
That’s why I'd steer clear of favorites on the Bills — like Stefon Diggs (+110) or Allen (+137) — in this spot and go with Gabe Davis (+220), who scored last week.
As for the Commanders, even though I’m not high on Sam Howell, I do project the Commanders to be in a trailing game script, which lends itself to pass-catchers. WR1s Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams have scored on the Bills defense, so I have to go back to the well with another WR1 in Terry McLaurin at +210.
Verdict: Bet Gabe Davis and Terry McLaurin at +200 or better.
Texans vs. Jaguars
This one is incredibly steamed for all Jaguars touchdown scorers.
Travis Etienne is at minus odds (-110) and four of the five top options for ATD props in general are from Jacksonville.
I expect a big bounce back from the Jags offense after completely wetting the bed in Week 2. While I think Etienne and Tank Bigsby could play big roles, Trevor Lawrence could be worth a stab at +260 considering the Texans already have given up two rushing TDs to quarterbacks.
On the Texans side, it’s the Dalton Schultz show. I like his odds at +250 or better since he played the majority of snaps over Teagan Quitoriano and Brevin Jordan.
Verdict: Consider Trevor Lawrence and Dalton Schultz.
Colts vs. Ravens
How do we have another Ravens game that has their starting running back over +125?
Gus Edwards got the early score in Week 2 and Ravens RBs have scored the first TD of the game in both weeks. I know there’s still the vulture threat from Justice Hill and Lamar Jackson, but “Gus Bus” is the guy we want here.
Also, if Anthony Richardson doesn’t end up playing and we see Gardner Minshew, that only helps the case of Michael Pittman Jr. in this spot.
Verdict: Bet Gus Edwards at +150 and Michael Pittman Jr. at +260 (if Minshew starts).
Panthers vs. Seahawks
It gets pretty gross for touchdown betting on the Panthers side.
Bryce Young may have two passing touchdowns, but both were on desperation plays. I want nothing to do with Carolina.
For the Seahawks, once you get past DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, it gets pretty grim for value.
Verdict: Lean Tyler Lockett at +150 or better.
Bears vs. Chiefs
How can anyone reasonably convince themselves to bet a Bears touchdown prop? It’s been a catastrophic showing by their offense and I have no trust in Justin Fields to complete a pass down field.
As usual, it’s the “Chiefs Premium” for touchdown scorers with each player’s odds steamed beyond fair value.
You could consider some long shots like Richie James at +450 or Justin Watson at +900, but this one could be over by halftime, which means touchdowns could drop off quickly.
Verdict: Maybe TE Cole Kmet at +333.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
Even as a Cowboys fan, I’d be shocked if I watched more than 20 minutes of this game.
The pass rush from Dallas should limit Joshua Dobbs' ability to move the ball, which should lead to quick dump-offs to Zach Ertz or James Connor. However, if the Cards don’t score early, we could see backups by the fourth quarter.
The Cardinals have surprisingly been feisty through two weeks but have fallen off after halftime in each game. This is a good spot to take a nap and before Sunday Night Football.
Verdict: Hard pass.
Olave should have scored twice last week, but he had two touchdowns called back. We’re on him this week now.
I think Packers CB Jaire Alexander is likely to shadow Michael Thomas. Part of the reason we’re getting this number at +210 is because of how many targets Thomas has gotten to start the season.
I know the stats show that the Packers pass defense has been good, but they’ve been more lucky. Justin Fields and Desmond Ridder had four expected passing touchdowns against Green Bay in the first two weeks but only threw two.
Anyone who watched the Saints’ win last Monday against the Panthers is aware that Olave is the real deal. We’ll back him to get the job done in Week 3.
This is a line that has simply been mispriced.
Pittman has 23 targets in two games this season, and he scored a touchdown back in Week 1.
Anthony Richardson might be out, but Gardner Minshew is a massive improvement for Pittman’s touchdown stock. Also, half of the Ravens defense is hurt, including a starting cornerback and safety.
The last time Pittman played in Baltimore, he balled out for six catches, 89 receiving yards and a touchdown.
I have this at +170 expected odds given the circumstances, so I grabbed him when I saw +275.
Ertz leads the Cardinals in targets and is playing more than 70% of offensive snaps. His injuries also seem to be a thing of the past.
Trevon Diggs’ torn ACL is a brutal blow for the Cowboys, but it’s good news for Ertz’s Week 3 matchup. It means Dallas is down a key defender in the slot and the secondary will be shorthanded.
Once you get past James Conner and Marquise Brown for the Cardinals, the scoring options get thin. With the Cowboys favored by 12.5 points, Arizona will likely be implying a pass-heavy game script in the second half. That will open things up for Ertz more.
Ertz had odds of +310 and +300 in Weeks 1 and 2. Now, this feels like an overreaction based on what we’ve seen from Dallas.
