RB Isiah Pacheco
Under 3.5 Receptions (-150)
Pacheco has been the recipient of at least four targets over the last three weeks, which is likely pushing this number up. But he's faced teams that are bottom seven in targets allowed per game to running backs. The Broncos (twice) and Chargers generate pressure at a bottom-10 rate — dead last, in Denver's case — and play a lower than average percentage of man defense.
The opposite is true for the Dolphins. They generate pressure at the sixth-highest rate, forcing RBs to stay in and block a bit more and play man at the 12th-highest rate, taking away opportunities for RBs to find space in the passing game.
Miami has allowed just 3.8 targets per game to running backs, lowest amongst all teams. That comes despite the fact that Miami has largely been in leading game scripts, having faced the fourth-most second-half snaps while leading and the third-most while leading by at least a touchdown. With opponents more likely to throw since they are playing from behind, it makes that 3.8 number even more remarkable.
In the two games the Dolphins lost, running backs received a total of three targets in each game. Those two games came against their two toughest opponents, the Bills and Eagles. It's safe to say Kansas City ranks up there in difficulty as well.
Pacheco has commanded just 49% of the RB targets in the Chiefs offense, and with so few to go around against this Miami defense, he'll have a hard time even seeing enough volume to crack this number even with a 100% catch rate.
I have Pacheco projected to stay under 3.5 receptions 72% of the time, putting him a full 12% clear of the 60% needed at -150. This is playable down to -200.
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TE Trey McBride
Under 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With first-string TE Zach Ertz on IR, Trey McBride garnered 82% of the snaps in Arizona's Week 8 loss to the Ravens. McBride was targeted 14 times in that game by Josh Dobbs, who got shipped to Minnesota in a deadline-day deal.
Enter rookie Clayton Tune, who has thrown all of one pass in the NFL so far. In Tune's two full season as the Houston Cougars starter, tight ends had just a 12.5% reception share. Contrast that with Dobbs, who targed TEs on 30.8% of his pass attempts in 10 career starts for the Titans and Cardinals.
In the preseason, Tune completed just 57.6% of his pass attempts against defenses much softer than he'll be facing this weekend.
The Browns enter as the league's No. 2 pass defense by DVOA, and are particularly tough on tight ends. They rank second in the NFL in defensive DVOA on passes to the position, while also allowing the fewest targets per game as well. That combination of low volume and efficiency means tight ends have averaged just 18.6 receiving yards per game against them.
Add in Tune's likely tendency to target tight ends less, and we've got a great case for McBride's under. I have him projected for a median of 34 yards, giving him a 61% chance to stay under 42.5. If you have Bet365 available to you, grab the under at 45.5 yards there.
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WR Tyler Scott
Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Scott's averaged 58% of snaps in three games since WR Equanimeous St. Brown went on IR, consistently between 55-60%.
He's been targeted 10 times in those games, but only has five receptions to show for it. That 50% catch rate is about 12% below expectation, so we should expect some positive regression. Despite the low catch rate, his median yards from three games is 12, clearing this prop twice.
The Saints are fifth in defensive pass DVOA against opposing teams' WR1, which is clearly D.J. Moore in the Bears offense. However, New Orleans is just 18th and 24th in defensive pass DVOA against WR2 and WR3s, respectively.
Scott has the ability to clear this on one catch based on his 10.7 aDOT. I'm projecting him for 1.7 receptions and a median of 20 receiving yards, giving him a 63% chance to clear this line.
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RB Justice Hill
Over 1.5 Receptions (+100)
Hill has been targeted on 7.7% of snaps and has a 16.1% routes run rate so far this year; he has a median of 31 snaps and 17 routes run in games where he's played at least 20 snaps, which should be a representative sample based on Baltimore’s current RB rotation. That puts him in the 2.3 to 2.7 target range for a median at these rates.
However, Ravens running backs are in an ideal situation against the Seahawks, who blitz at the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL. That means RBs don’t have to pass protect as often. Seattle also plays man coverage at the third-lowest rate so RBs aren’t marked out of routes as often. As a result, Seattle allows the fifth-most targets per game to running backs.
Hill's 100% catch rate is due for regression, but that's made up for in the fact that Seattle is a strong team and could play the Ravens close. In the four one-score games where he's played a representative snap count with this RB rotation, Hill has been targeted an average of 3.5 times.
I'm projecting Hill for 2.2 receptions on 2.6 targets, clearing this line 63% of the time, with potential for more upside if Gus Edwards' toe injury limits him.
QB Bryce Young
Under 0.5 Interceptions (-108)
Young has not been aggressive, throwing for the fourth-shortest intended air yards per attempt. His 9.4% aggressiveness rating is second lowest in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.
Instead of forcing the ball to receivers who aren't open, he holds the the ball and takes sacks. Important for this bet because every sack he takes is another play that doesn't result in an interception.
Thanks to his carefulness with his throws, Young has only thrown 18 bad balls on 213 pass attempts for an 8.5% rate, well below the league average of 11.7%.
In fact, Young has been unlucky to have four interceptions as we'd expect just 3.5 from his 18 bad balls. Meanwhile, the Colts have forced bad balls at the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL at just 10.3%.
Indianapolis' six interceptions off 29 bad balls forced comes in almost half an interception above expected.
Overall, I have Young throwing an interception just 42% of the time, and would play this down to -125.
