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The fifth-round rookie has been more involved in the offense over the last two games. Last week, he was specifically more involved in the passing game and started to see snaps on third down. Brown cashed in with a 3/80/1 receiving line and also has graded as one of the best pass-blocking RBs so far this season, according to Pro Football Focus. It wouldn’t surprise me if he starts seeing even more passing-down work as a result.
Last week’s massive game came against a Colts defense that uses zone at the highest rate in the league. The Vikings use zone at the sixth-highest rate in the league and allow a ton of easy completions underneath while limiting explosive plays. Jake Browning has attempted a league-high 35% of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, so this could be a spot where we see him check down to his RBs often.
I’m projecting Brown closer to two receptions with around a 59% chance to clear 1.5 receptions. I prefer attacking the over 6.5 receiving yards if you have access to this market because he could potentially clear this with a single catch and most certainly will if he hauls in 2 catches. I’m projecting his median closer to 9.5 and a 60% chance of clearing 6.5.
