Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, May 5.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. Today, I deep dive into Dodgers vs Marlins, Giants vs Cubs, Mets vs Diamondbacks, and Astros vs Brewers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, May 5
  |   |   |   |
Dodgers vs. Marlins
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | -185 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 9.5 -102o / -118u | +154 |
Ben Casparius (LAD) vs. Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily with command following Tommy John surgery, posting a career-worst 14.2% walk rate (7.6% career), 15.8% strikeout rate (21.3% career), a 90 Location+ rating (104 career), and a 4.16 botERA (3.06 career).
Pitch modeling metrics view Sandy's stuff as comparable to his pre-injury levels (108 Stuff+, 110 career) even though his velocity is slightly down a tick (96.7 mph sinker vs. 97.6 mph in 2023, 87.8 mph in 2022) since returning to a big league mound.
Still, he's unable to put the ball in the strike zone (51.8% vs. 53.4% from 2022-2023), and batters aren't chasing outside either (52.5% vs. 56.9% career and 60.5% in 2023). A patient Dodgers lineup (third-lowest O-Swing% and fifth-highest walk rate) should take advantage of any pitcher with command issues.
Ben Casparius had a breakout postseason last year for the Dodgers and has become a significant part of their pitching staff this season, with elite pitch modeling metrics (115 Stuff+, 116 Pitching+, 3.26 botERA) and underlying indicators (2.43 xERA, 3.13 xFIP, 23.5% K-BB%) while mostly working in multi-inning stints as a relief pitcher.
Casparius features four pitches — a subpar four-seamer (35% usage, 97 Stuff+) paired with an elite slider (35% usage, 136 Stuff+), a sharp curve (11.4% usage, 115 Stuff+) and a cutter (19% usage, 112 Stuff+) which he has deployed more heavily this season.
Per Thomas Nestico, the movement and velocity on Casparius's slider sit squarely between his four-seam fastball and slider, allowing the righty to tunnel all three offerings effectively:
Ben Casparius started throwing his cutter more often this season and it may be the key to him being a strong starter
His cutter (purple) acts as a bridge pitch between his fastball (red) and slider (green) to make it difficult for batters to react, as illustrated by this overlay pic.twitter.com/8mqIvI81tg
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 1, 2025
Casparius tossed a season-high 54 pitches in his most recent appearance. The Dodgers are attempting to stretch him out as a starting pitcher with Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell sidelined.
Los Angeles has a significantly better offense (122 wRC+, 4th) than Miami (94 wRC+, 22nd) and one of, if not the best, bullpens in baseball (3.38 xFIP, 1st; 19% K-BB%, 3rd; 106 Pitching+, 4th).
Marlins relievers rank 30th by both xFIP and K-BB% (4.96, 6.6%) and remain in the bottom 10 by pitching models (22nd in Pitching+), and the Dodgers will look to take out some frustration after going 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position in their Sunday night loss in Atlanta.
Despite their overnight travel and a more difficult rest spot after a Sunday night game, I projected the Dodgers as -195 favorites in their series opener against the Marlins; bet the Dodgers to -180.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (bet to -180)
| | | |
Astros vs. Brewers
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8 -112o / -108u | -105 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -112o / -108u | -115 |
Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs. Tobias Myers (MIL)
Tobias Myers was a significant contributor to Milwaukee's repeat as NL Central champions in 2024 (3.00 ERA, 4.22 xERA, 16% K-BB%, 91 Stuff+, 102 Location+, 94 Pitching+, 4.47 botERA).
Myers has a solid changeup (109 Stuff+) and decent command, but he still functions as a more effective arm than underlying indicators or projections might forecast (projected FIP range of 4.18 to 4.70) because he does an exceptional job of tunneling and disguising his pitches.
Right-handed hitters (career 3.54 xFIP, 21.1% K-BB%) have to guess what's coming. Myers has extremely tight overlap in his release points but relatively wide variability in pitch movement and speed throughout his arsenal (top 12% and top 15%, respectively). The plus changeup is enough to hold lefties near league-average production.
Projections view Myers as a superior starting pitcher to Ronel Blanco (projected FIP range of 4.45 to 5.00), who has lesser pitch modeling metrics (91 Stuff+, 100 Location+, 94 Pitching+, 4.80 botERA) — with no individual pitch higher than 94 Stuff+ — and a below-average walk rate (10.8% career).
Houston has the better bullpen (3rd vs. 23rd in xFIP, 2nd vs. 18th in K-BB%) and lineup (16th vs. 24th in wRC+), but the Brewers project as the better team defensively and on the basepaths.
Houston's players have produced better defensive results this season (11th vs. 18th in DRS; 2nd vs. 12th in OAA), but Milwaukee does rank second in baserunning value (Houston is 20th).
Yainer Diaz has been a below-average defensive catcher (-3 DRS) early in his career, while ranking around average in stolen base prevention, and I'd expect the Brewers to run on Blanco (permitted 13 steals on 16 career attempts) aggressively on Monday.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (bet to -115)
| | | |
Giants vs. Cubs
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +124 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -148 |
Landen Roupp (SF) vs. Matthew Boyd (CHC)
The weather at Wrigley Field on Monday should be pitcher friendly — 52 degrees at first pitch (49 real feel), with 6-7 mph winds blowing in from left field.
This lowers my projection from nearly eight runs on a weather-neutral day on the northside of Chicago to 6.6 runs for Monday. Bet Under 7.5 to -125, or Under 7 to -105.
Aside from the catching position, where Patrick Bailey ranks as the best defensive backstop in the sport (36 DRS since 2023; with Alejandro Kirk at 30 and Gabriel Moreno at 29), the Giants are a below-average defensive club, ranking 17th in DRS (+3) and 27th (-10) in OAA in 2025.
Conversely, the Cubs are the best defensive team in my model, currently ranking second in DRS (+22) and 11th in OAA (+2).
Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks second in DRS among centerfielders (+17) since the start of last season, and he's flanked by Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ, who each rank inside the top 10 for outfield DRS over the past four years (+22 and +27, respectively).
Moreover, Dansby Swanson (+33) ranks second among shortstops, and Nico Hoerner (+19) is fourth among second basemen over the same span. And both Nicky Lopez and Michael Busch are above-average defenders at the corners. Only catcher Carson Kelly (career -4 DRS) rates as a below-average defender for Chicago's regular lineup.
The Cubs also have the best offense in the National League (126 wRC+) to date, with Seiya Suzuki (157 wRC+) producing career-best marks as a full-time DH and Crow-Armstrong blossoming at the dish (140 wRC+) after adjusting his positioning in the batter's box:
The evolution of Pete Crow-Armstrong's adjustability is kind of wild. #Cubs
Last season: only consistently barreled things in middle-up band of the zone
This season: insane vertical coverage, majority of barrels on non-fastballs pic.twitter.com/7k3ULzaTHR
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) May 4, 2025
Conversely, the Giants' offense (95 wRC+) has performed worse than last season (97 wRC+).
San Francisco has a significant bullpen advantage (6th vs. 27th in xFIP, 11th vs. 28th in K-BB%), although pitching models view these relief units more comparably (Chicago 11th in Pitching+, 7th in botERA; San Francisco 9th and 11th, respectively).
Moreover, projections and underlying indicators prefer Landen Roupp (3.31 xERA, 3.55 xFIP, 107 Pitching+, 3.81 botERA, projected FIP range of 3.66 to 3.80) to Matthew Boyd (3.60 xERA, 4.40 xFIP, 91 Pitching+, 4.23 botERA, projected FIP range of 3.65 to 4.07).
The Giants' offense has been much better against righties (99 wRC+) than lefties (85 wRC+) this season, but I project their offense to be equally effective against either-handed starting pitchers.
Yet, even assuming that the Giants will be better against lefties than they have been so far this season, I still projected the Cubs north of -160 in this matchup; bet their moneyline to -150.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (bet to -150) | Under 7.5 (bet to -125)
| | | |
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -110 |
Griffin Canning (NYM) vs. Ryne Nelson (ARI)
The Mets played a doubleheader on Sunday and had to travel overnight from St. Louis to Phoenix, making Monday's matchup relatively difficult from a travel and rest standpoint.
