Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday, April 15 (Jackie Robinson Day).
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Tuesday MLB predictions and picks.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Previews Tuesday
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Mariners vs. Reds: 2 Way to Bet the Moneyline
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. Nick Lodolo (CIN)
A variety of injuries — including a tibia fracture, a calf strain, a groin strain, and a sprained finger on his pitching hand — have limited Nick Lodolo (career 4.27 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB%) to just 31 starts since the start of the 2023 season.
Still, the 27-year-old southpaw appears to be as healthy as he's been in a while, with three consecutive quality starts (2.54 xERA, 108 Pitching+, 3.09 botERA) to begin his 2025 campaign.
Lodolo has also modified his pitch arsenal, decreasing his four-seam usage by 15% in exchange for more sinkers and changeups.
Lodolo's curveball (career 121 Stuff) grades out as his best pitch, but he's throwing it less than ever before (22% vs. 29.5% career) early this season.
FIP projections view Lodolo (projected FIP range of 3.96 to 4.20) comparably to Luis Castillo (projected range of 3.72 to 4.17) — but Lodolo has the better pitch modeling metrics and underlying indicators.
Castillo's fastball velocity is down a tick in 2025, 1.7 mph over a two-year period, and 2.5 mph since 2022. Moreover, in a limited 2025 sample his strikeout rate has fallen from 24.3% to a career-low 21.4%, and his walk rate is back above his career average (8.6% vs. 8% career).
The Mariners have the bullpen advantage, but Cincinnati stands to activate closer Alexis Diaz (hamstring) from the IL before Tuesday's contest.
Diaz (3.70 xERA in 2024, 3.40 in 2023) should provide a slight boost to a bottom-10 bullpen (23rd in xFIP, 20th in K-BB%), and I would still favor the Reds in the same matchup on a neutral field.
Cincinnati ranked 28th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 23rd in Outs Above Average (OAA) last season, but I project them as an above-average defensive team for 2025 — it currently rates third by both defensive metrics.
Pick: Reds F5 Moneyline (bet to -118) | Reds Moneyline (bet to -115)
| | | | |
Braves vs. Blue Jays: Value on Toronto?
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 100o / -120u | -120 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8 100o / -120u | +100 |
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs. Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Spencer Schwellenbach appears to be one of the best young pitchers in the game, boasting elite pitch modeling metrics (110 Stuff+, 116 Pitching+, 2.77 botERA), results (career 2.94 ERA), and underlying indicators (3.32 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 21% K-BB%).
Schwellenbach throws six different pitches — four carry a Stuff+rating of 109 or higher (120 splitter, 116 sinker, 111 four-seamer, 109 slider). He has been better against same-sided hitters (2.62 xFIP vs. righties, 26.9% K-BB% and 3.83 xFIP vs. lefties with a 15.5% K-BB%), but he should find the correct mix with a wide arsenal to neutralize lefties.
I believe that Schwellenbach will continue to outperform his rest-of-season FIP projections (range of 3.34 to 3.71) and be viewed as a true ace by season's end. I'm not particularly interested in betting against him in the future.
Kevin Gausman (2.70 xERA) has seen a velocity increase following a down 2024 campaign (4.71 xERA).
Pitch modeling metrics (103 Stuff+, 112 Pitching+, 2.56 botERA) suggest that this version of Gausman could be the same ace level pitcher we saw from 2020 to 2023 (Stuff+ figures of 103, 102, 105, 101 before 97 in 2024; botERA figures of 2.85, 3.27, 2.49, 3.66, 3.81 over the same span).
I projected the total at 7.25 runs and would bet the Under to 7.5 (+100) with pitcher-friendly umpire Roberto Ortiz behind the dish.
Independent of my umpire adjustment, Ortiz has posted a lifetime record of 93-71-11 (56.7%) to the Under, with an 8.5% ROI.
Moreover, I set Toronto as a slight home favorite (projected -110) and would take almost any plus-money price on the home underdog.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (bet to +102) | Under 8 (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)
| | | | |
Tigers vs. Brewers Over/Under Pick
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -120 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +100 |
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. Quinn Priester (MIL)
Fatigue caught up with Jack Flaherty in the second half of the 2024 season (2.53 xFIP, 27.8% K-BB% in the first half vs. 3.65 and 19.1% in the second half), which led to a further velocity dip (on regular rest) in October. This left Flaherty with minimal interest in free agency; he opted for a two-year, $35 million deal to return to Detroit.
The more Flaherty has to start on regular rest, the worse I'd expect him to do. His fastball velocity has already dipped from 93.6 mph to 92 and 92.4 over his first three starts, with his slider trending from 84.4 mph down to 83.4 and 83.7 in the same outings. Flaherty's Stuff+ rating has fallen from 101 to 98. His boTERA has climbed from 4.27 to 4.57.
Although he's posted strong results thus far (3.43 xERA, 21.2% K-BB%), his projected FIP range (3.74 to 3.96) could be his ceiling if he's living at 92 mph with his fastball.
The Brewers' offense (96 wRC+, 20th) presents a relatively soft matchup for Flaherty.
Still, the Tigers (118 wRC+, 8th) could feast upon Quinn Priester (career 6.02 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 4.81 botERA), who was traded to Milwaukee from Boston last week. Priester is a former No. 18 overall pick from 2019, but he has below-average stuff (career 92 Stuff+) and merely average command (6.3% K-BB%, 4.81 botERA).
Milwaukee had him throw a new cutter (78 Stuff+) frequently in his first start of 2025 (29% usage rate), but I don't think Priester has an effective enough arsenal to perform as an average MLB starting pitcher.
FIP projections like his potential as a reliever, with an average sinker and slider potentially playing better in shorter stints out of the bullpen.
I set the total at 8.23 runs in this game; bet the Over up to 8 at even money.
Pick: Over 7.5 (bet to -118 or 8, +100)
| | | | |
Mets vs. Twins: All NY On Tuesday?
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -115o / -105u | -102 |
Tylor Megill (NYM) vs. Bailey Ober (MIN)
I have bet on and discussed Tylor Megill several times this season.
Again, his emergence bears emphasizing: Megill has two elite fastballs (126 Stuff+ four-seamer, 116 sinker) along with a solid slider (105) and a show-me curveball (98); he scrapped the cutter (13%) and splitter (7%) he utilized in 2024.
