There's no better feeling for an NFL team than a perfect start.
For all the analytics and win probability formulas and Luck Rankings, sports remain painfully binary in the end — you either win or you lose, and that's that.
Only six teams have managed to win all three of their games so far: the 49ers, Bills, Buccaneers, Chargers, Colts and Eagles.
Are all six headed for the playoffs? Not exactly.
Since the 1970 merger, 185-of-246 teams to start 3-0 went on to make the postseason (75%). But since the league expanded to 32 teams, that number has dropped below 70%, and it's down to about 2-in-3 since 2013, with just 41-of-60 making the playoffs.
Probably not as high as you'd think! That would imply two of our 3-0 teams watch from home in January.
Of course, the NFL postseason expanded to 14 teams in 2020-21, leaving a bit more margin for error. Since then, 18-of-22 teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs (82%), but that also includes teams that finished 7-10 and 5-12, so even these teams aren't safe from disaster.
History says one or two of these 3-0 squads will miss the NFL playoffs, so which one will it be? Last week, we gave some hope to those terrible 0-2 teams — now it's time to dash some 3-0 dreams.
Let's rank the playoff chances of the six unbeaten teams from safest to most vulnerable, looking at their odds to make or miss the playoffs.
NFL Futures Picks & Predictions
Odds via bet365 (make playoffs/miss playoffs) and DraftKings (division)
1. Buffalo Bills
- Make playoffs: -10000
- Miss playoffs: +1700
- Division odds: -2000
While the Bills were lucky to escape Week 1 undefeated after their crazy comeback against the Ravens, Buffalo has since coasted to a pair of division wins by 30 points since.
That performance against the Ravens matters more in January, and this team is atop every power ranking for now.
Josh Allen is the reigning MVP and the favorite to repeat — as long as he's healthy, the Bills should cruise to the playoffs. Since his breakout 2020 season, Allen is 64-22 in the regular season (a 74% win rate). That would imply 10 wins going forward — on top of the three Buffalo already has.
The Bills still face the Browns, Dolphins, Jets, Panthers and Saints, so that alone should get them to eight wins. Games against the Chiefs and Eagles are in Buffalo, too, and there's a good chance the Bills are 7-0 when they host that Kansas City game on Nov. 2.
Buffalo's current win total is at 13.5, juiced to the over. FTN has the Bills at 98.8% to make the playoffs, and it's hard to identify anyone in the division that will get in the way. The Bills are +125, nearly even odds versus the field, to finish with the NFL's best record.
Verdict: Barring a disastrous injury to Josh Allen, we'll be watching the Bills in January — and maybe beyond.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Make playoffs: -650
- Miss playoffs: +425
- Division odds: -425
Surprise! You probably didn't expect the Bucs to rank this high, and for good reason.
Tampa Bay is 3-0 with a +6 point differential. The Bucs have won all of their games with a field goal in the final minute — with 59, six, and zero seconds on the clock. Tampa continues to perch high in our NFL Luck Rankings; the Bucs could easily be 2-1, 1-2 or even 0-3.
But they're not!
Atlanta was the better team in the opener, but the Bucs led late anyway before two Superman plays by Michael Penix Jr., and that missed Falcons field goal would've only sent the game to overtime anyway.
Tampa was much better than Houston in Week 2 but left the game close due to some awful special teams play — the Bucs eventually recovered after blowing a late lead. Then on Sunday, it was 23-6 in favor of the Bucs before a late Jets comeback (with more special teams shenanigans), but Tampa came through again.
In all three games, the Bucs led comfortably late. Of course, they blew that late lead, but on balance it's probably fair to say this team should be 2-1, maybe 1-2 if they were unlucky.
But again — they're not!
They're 3-0, and two of those wins were among their toughest games of the season. At Houston on Monday Night Football was a tough underdog win, and at Atlanta was the toughest and most important game in the division by far.
To miss the playoffs, you have to not win your division; Tampa got two huge wins in that direction on Sunday — its own escape against the Jets but also Atlanta's stunning 30-0 shellacking at the hands of the Panthers. That leaves both teams at 1-2, and Atlanta now 0-2 in the division facing a huge hole. One of the Falcons or Panthers — or the Saints — has to catch up in the NFC South, or the Bucs are in the playoffs.
FTN projects Tampa at 10.7 wins, nothing special, but the next-closest team in the division right now is Atlanta at 7.3! That puts Tampa Bay at 85% to make the playoffs. God bless the NFC South.
The schedule does stiffen up. The Bucs' next four games are against Philadelphia, at Seattle, San Francisco, and at Detroit, with the middle two on extra rest. Tampa also has a back-to-back road trip against the Bills and Rams later this season.
But after all that, the Bucs end the season against the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins and Panthers again. Win just that Thursday night Week 15 home game against Atlanta and the division is probably a wrap for the Bucs. And even if they lose that one, a 4-1 late stretch on top of this 3-0 start means seven wins and the brink of the playoffs.
Two things can be true at once.
The Bucs are extremely lucky to be undefeated. They're one of three teams without a turnover this season, an incredible stroke of luck considering Baker Mayfield ranks near the top of the league in Turnover Worthy Plays at PFF.
But this is also likely the worst the Bucs will be all season. Tampa hasn't even gotten studs LT Tristan Wirfs or WR Chris Godwin onto the field yet.
The Bucs are breaking in a brand new playcaller in OC Josh Grizzard and have struggled to establish a run game, and they played with all five expected offensive line starters out of place this week.
And yet, they're 3-0.
If you want to fade the Bucs before this upcoming stretch, playing under 11.5 (-125, DraftKings) is probably the better way. The Bucs could easily cash your ticket and make the playoffs anyway in this division.
Verdict: It matters that the Bucs don't deserve to be 3-0, but it also matters that they are anyway. In the moribund NFC South, that might already be enough.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
- Make playoffs: -900
- Miss playoffs: +550
- Division odds: -180
Few expected the Chargers to start 3-0, but it is not just that — they are 3-0 in division games, too!
Two of those wins came by single digits, but the truth is that the Chargers have dominated all of their games. They were the clearly superior team in the opener against the Chiefs, and the Raiders game was over at halftime.
L.A. needed a late field goal to beat Denver but dominated. The Chargers defense held the Broncos to a 25% Success Rate and just nine first downs; L.A. ran 32 more plays and gained over 100 additional yards. That game should've never been close.
Just as importantly as the undefeated start: the rest of the AFC West sits at 1-2, so the Chargers are effectively up 2 1/2 games on all three division opponents. Those head-to-head wins matter, and division record matters, too.
Up next are the Giants starting a debut rookie QB in Jaxson Dart, then the Commanders with injuries at QB and WR, and then the terrible Dolphins. The Bolts could easily be 6-0 before a suddenly intriguing Week 7 game against the Colts
The Chargers should be favored in at least 10 more games, and are you ready for a crazy stat? Head coach Jim Harbaugh is now an incredible 28-7 ATS as an NFL favorite of under six points, an awesome 80% cover rate by almost a touchdown per game!
This is the first time the Chargers have been 3-0 since they had Drew Brees, and the QB is the reason why once again.
Justin Herbert is playing lights-out football, as well as anyone in the league, maybe the MVP if the season ended today. Add Herbert's play with a trio of suddenly dangerous receivers on top of great coaching and Jesse Minter's attacking defense, and that should spell playoffs — especially in the wide-open AFC, where Joe Burrow is hurt and the Ravens and Chiefs are 1-2.
It's fair to have some skepticism.
The offensive line continues to look problematic without Rashawn Slater. Herbert has handled the pressure magnificently so far, but that's not a great long-term formula for efficiency or health; the run game takes a hit now with Najee Harris out for the season.
This might be a great spot to buy Omarion Hampton at +900 for Rookie of the Year (Circa) as the workhorse in a Greg Roman offense.
The defense is also outperforming its underlying talent right now, something we saw early last season before things tailed off.
Still, the AFC West doesn't look quite as difficult as anticipated, and even losing the division should leave an AFC Wild Card path wide open. FTN has the Chargers at 54% to win the division and 83% to make the playoffs.
If you're still fading this team, that 17% to miss the playoffs does imply slight value on a +650 ticket to miss (BetMGM), or you can play under 11.5 since L.A. could go under that number and still make the playoffs or maybe even win the division.
Verdict: I'm not positive I believe in this team just yet, but it's not the right time to fade them with the upcoming schedule. Let's grab that Omarion Hampton +900 OROY ticket before the matchup against a terrible Giants defense.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
- Make playoffs: -750
- Miss playoffs: +475
- Division odds: -220
For much of Sunday, it sure looked like the Rams would be occupying a space in this column — not the Eagles.
The Eagles trailed the Rams 19-7 at the half and had just 33 yards of offense, the lowest of any team all season and Philly's lowest in a decade. When Jalen Hurts got strip sacked on Philadelphia's second play after halftime with RT Lane Johnson out, the Rams found the end zone on the next play and it looked like the rout was on.
You know what happened from there.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo finally realized he can call pass plays. A.J. Brown had a monster half, and the Eagles came all the way back and sealed a historic bad beat for Rams +3.5 bettors with Jordan Davis' field-goal block and TD with 0:00 on the clock.
Even after getting outplayed badly for half of the game, even after the crazy comeback, the Eagles still needed two blocked field goals late to get the one-score win — but this is nothing new for Philadelphia.
The Eagles won by three in Kansas City but were arguably outplayed, benefiting on a huge swing when sure-handed Travis Kelce deflected a ball a couple yards from the end zone for an Eagles interception.
Philadelphia beat Dallas by four in the opener but played the Cowboys mostly even — and lucked into about a hundred yards of dropped balls by CeeDee Lamb.
Philadelphia is incredibly lucky and sits atop our Luck Rankings. The Eagles could easily be 0-3.
This does not look at all like last year's Super Bowl juggernaut.
Saquon Barkley's numbers are way down. The offensive line hasn't been quite as dominant, and we'll see if Johnson is healthy. The defense has dropped a level or three, especially against the run.
The offense has felt like it's been stuck in the mud under Patullo. But did the Eagles solve that problem in the second half Sunday?
Maybe, or maybe the other five halves of football so far matter, too — along with a reminder that Philadelphia's passing offense was easily the worst part of its championship team a year ago.
There are plenty of reasons to think this is not last year's Super Bowl squad.
But the Eagles are still 3-0 either way.
Philadelphia will face tough tests over the next two weeks against the Bucs and Broncos (both great run defenses), and the Eagles still have to play the entire NFC North, plus road games against the Chargers and Bills, along with two of the final three weeks against Washington.
That's not an easy slate. But the Eagles also get to play the Giants twice before a Week 9 bye and may likely be 6-2 or 7-1 by then, so this may not be the time to fade Eagles futures.
Remember, the easiest way to make the playoffs is by winning the division.
The Cowboys might have the worst defense in the league and are now without CeeDee Lamb. The Giants look awful and will start a rookie QB-RB combo going forward. The Commanders are the only real threat at 2-1 — but both Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin are hurt, and Washington's defense leaves plenty to be desired.
Do the Eagles feel fraudulent after three one-score victories they could have lost? Certainly.
This feels a lot like last year's Chiefs, who lucked into close victory after close victory, or a couple recent Vikings teams. Or maybe it's like the 2023 Eagles, who started 10-1 with a slew of close wins before falling apart under OC Brian Johnson late.
All four of those teams ended their seasons in embarrassing fashion — but they all did so in the playoffs.
Philadelphia's reckoning may well be coming.
This is not last year's squad — but that doesn't necessarily mean this team will miss the playoffs.
Verdict: There's no way to bet Philadelphia to miss the playoffs without also betting on the Giants, Cowboys or Commanders getting there in their place. Right now, that's not a smart bet in either direction so we'll have to look for other ways to fade the Eagles.
5. San Francisco 49ers
- Make playoffs: -400
- Miss playoffs: +300
- Division odds: +110
Like a few other teams in this column, the 49ers are lucky to be in this position.
The 49ers were the better team on Sunday against the Cardinals but needed a walk-off field goal to steal the win by one. They won by only five in New Orleans and by four in Seattle, struggling on special teams and in the red zone.
Already San Francisco is 3-0 in one-score games after going 2-6 last year, with just a +10 point differential against three teams most would expect to be outside the playoffs.
These 49ers aren't exactly impressing anybody.
But they are getting the wins.
San Francisco is 2-0 without Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Mac Jones hasn't been great but he's done just enough, considering his pass-catchers on Sunday were Ricky Pearsall, Kendrick Bourne, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Tonges.
When you play that many backups on offense, you're not going to look very good — but that makes it all the more impressive to be 3-0, including 2-0 in the division.
Still, are we sure those injury issues are going away?
Like Tampa Bay, you could argue the 49ers are undefeated despite being the worst they'll be all season with all those injuries. But Aiyuk is still out indefinitely, Jauan Jennings continues to struggle and Kittle remains out. More importantly, Jones has a knee injury and Purdy still isn't healthy.
Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey are playing. But both guys have been question marks leading up to games already, and Williams is off to his worst start to a season in over a decade. McCaffrey remains dangerous as a receiver but has not been great as a runner, averaging just 0.5 yards per contact without a single broken tackle through three weeks.
Why does it feel like the 49ers are always so banged up?
San Francisco had this problem a year ago, ranking top three on both offense and defense in adjusted injury games lost at FTN after having the fourth-best injury luck in 2023. But — get ready for a crazy stat — the Niners have ranked 20th or worse in adjusted injury games lost in 11 of the last 12 seasons!
They appear well on their way to making that 12-of-13, especially now that star edge Nick Bosa is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff.
The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner.
Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10.
And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses.
As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error.
San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC.
It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now.
FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well.
How about taking it a step further?
If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs.
I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division.
Verdict: This was never a median-outcome squad. With Bosa out for the year and virtually everyone meaningful on offense either hurt or showing their age, it looks like the time to fade the 49ers. I'll buy those third- and fourth-place division tickets at +450 and +1100.
6. Indianapolis Colts
- Make playoffs: -350
- Miss playoffs: +260
- Division odds: -155
The Colts are almost certainly the most shocking squad on the list, and they might also be the most impressive.
Indianapolis was lucky to beat the Broncos by one, needing a last-second field goal after a penalty on the first attempt, but the Colts have demolished their other two opponents, beating the Titans and Dolphins by 46 points combined.
Daniel Jones — and Shane Steichen's offense — have been one of the stories of the season so far.
The Colts have punted just once in three games — the least in modern NFL history, and five lower than any other team. Indianapolis is averaging just over 50 yards per drive, 10 more than any other team and most of any NFL team this millennium through three weeks.
The Colts posted the second-best EPA per drive of any team this season against the Titans — second only to their own performance in Week 1 against the Dolphins.
Pick an offensive stat and Indianapolis will probably rank near the top through — the question is whether this can continue.
This will almost certainly be the best three-week stretch of the Colts' season. It has to be, with those numbers. It's almost impossible for Indianapolis to play any better.
And that should be a huge red flag — unlike teams like the Bucs and 49ers who should be better later, that means the Colts can only get worse. It's also important to remember who the Colts played: the Titans, Broncos and Dolphins.
Tennessee and Miami have been the league's two biggest disasters thus far at 0-3, with head coaches who appear to be in a race to see who can get fired first. Denver's only win came against Tennessee, and by just one score.
The Colts have faced only one unit that even ranks above average on the season — and that's the No. 14 DVOA defense of the Broncos, which hasn't been as good as expected. Tennessee and Miami's defenses have been just as bad against non-Colts opponents, and none of the three teams have been good offensively.
The Colts have effectively played two glorified scrimmages and lucked into a coin-flip, penalty-aided win over Denver.
Indianapolis, however, has unquestionably played well.
Rookie tight end Tyler Warren looks like a stud. The Colts' offensive line has been great, Steichen is cooking and Jonathan Taylor is the current favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, with Jones making a charge for Comeback Player of the Year at QB.
Can we let this play out a bit though?
Taylor missed 16 games the last three seasons since his top-two OPOY season, struggling to stay healthy after a 332-carry season. He's on pace for 340 carries this season, and his average PFF rank over the last three injury-plagued seasons was 43rd out of 59 RBs.
As for Jones, three games of data saying he's great against bad opponents isn't enough yet to outweigh six seasons of data that say otherwise.
The Colts are also one of three teams yet to turn the ball over. Indianapolis has a +5 turnover margin, the second-best mark in the league, worth over eight EPA per game to the team. That turnover luck will even out eventually, and Jones and the Colts will need to learn to play off script.
Indianapolis is more than a field goal underdog against the Rams, which is telling.
The Colts still play at the Steelers, Chiefs and Seahawks, plus a Monday night game against the 49ers. The Colts have four games against the Jaguars and Texans, too. Indianapolis still looks like an underdog in eight games.
This is where we remember that the Colts missing the playoffs would have to mean the Jaguars, Texans or Titans make it. The latter two are 0-3, so unless Houston turns things around in a hurry, Jacksonville might be the only real threat. FTN has the Jaguars at 41% to win the AFC South, showing some value on a +200 ticket (bet365).
The Colts are 53% to win the division at FTN and 77% to make the playoffs.
In fact, even after this start, Indianapolis' in-season win total is posted at just 10.5, the lowest of any 3-0 squad. You're actually getting +115 to go over 10.5 at DraftKings — but FTN projects Indy at 10.2 wins.
Even in the weak AFC South, the Colts are the most likely 3-0 team to miss the playoffs — and books agree, pricing Indy just +280 to miss the postseason (BetMGM), an implied 26% that doesn't leave much value, especially since a wild card could easily be in play in the AFC.
Credit the Colts for an amazing start, but such great play also means Indianapolis has the furthest to fall.
Verdict: The Colts still need to prove it against real competition. I'm not ready to believe, even in the AFC South, but there's not a great futures angle to fade Indianapolis right now either.
