Welcome back to the NFL Pick Six.
Early each week, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick early look at the upcoming games, and like any good pick-six, we'll wrap each week with my Extra Point, one more thing you need to know and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
We hit our first Pick Six at +630 in Week 7 but missed the last two weeks. For Week 10, we're riding with six favorites, four short and two long.
Our Week 10 moneyline parlay has odds at +503 on bet365 at the time of publishing. Let's get to the NFL picks!
NFL Week 10 Parlay Picks
Colts Moneyline
Falcons vs Colts: Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET
We'll start early Sunday morning in Berlin, and if you're starting overseas, it's typically a good idea to start with the favorites.
Excluding Jaguars games (since they play overseas so often), international favorites are 27-13 against the spread (ATS), covering 68% of the time by 4.8 PPG. When the total is 44 or higher, international favorites had not lost in 20 consecutive meetings until the Chiefs lost in Brazil in the season opener.
The Colts finally picked up a second loss, but they still played well for the most part. They finished with a net +10% Success Rate better than Pittsburgh and moved the ball up and down the field successfully, but blew the game on six turnovers.
Did Daniel Jones turn back into a pumpkin for Halloween weekend?
Maybe.
Or maybe football is hard, the ball is oblong, and sometimes you just have one of those days against a talented Mike Tomlin defense.
Atlanta's defense has had some excellent days, but it's a smaller unit up front and the Falcons rank in the bottom 10 in rushing DVOA defense. This should be a good get-right spot for Jonathan Taylor and an offensive line that got embarrassed last week.
The Colts clearly believe in what this team is — they showed us that by emptying the bank to add Sauce Gardner at the NFL Trade Deadline — and Gardner, in addition to Kenny Moore and Charvarius Ward give Indy one of the league's best corner trios and plenty of options to handle Drake London.
Indianapolis has a pretty significant coaching matchup here. Shane Steichen is the rightful favorite for Coach of the Year and has pulled all the right levers, while many questions are being asked of Atlanta's Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson.
Trust the Colts to get back on track in Germany. There's still value on Indianapolis -250 to win the division (FanDuel), with an implied 71%, while the Colts are projected at 82% at FTN, still 2.5 wins ahead of Jacksonville.
Bills Moneyline
Bills vs Dolphins: Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Bills did the thing last weekend against the Chiefs, beating their rivals for a fifth straight time in the regular season.
Buffalo's dominance extends even further in its own division, especially against the Dolphins.
The Bills have won seven straight against Miami and 14 of their last 15, with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG and nine wins by double digits. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 straight up (SU) against Buffalo with as many interceptions as TD passes, compared to 14-1 against the Jets and Patriots.
This just hasn't been much of a rivalry since Josh Allen showed up. The Bills should have their way with this Dolphins defense, and Allen may not even have to do much. Look for James Cook to have another huge game against a run defense that's been repeatedly gashed this season.
And while Sean McDermott's defensive schemes have clear flaws against some opponents, this unit has had plenty of answers against Mike McDaniel's offense.
This is an emotional letdown spot for Buffalo after the big Chiefs win and Miami is coming off extra rest, but the Bills are just way better and should find plenty of answers against an opponent that's pretty easily solved this season.
Bears Moneyline
Giants vs Bears: Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The season-long metrics paint this as a relatively even matchup.
Chicago's defense hasn't been great — neither has New York's offense. Both units are slightly improving, but that side of the ball looks like a wash.
The other side of the ball is where we can find an edge.
New York's defense has been pretty disappointing, especially its run defense. The Giants rank dead last by rushing DVOA defensively, and that looks like a big problem in this game, specifically because of how improved Chicago's rushing attack has been in recent weeks.
Through four games entering its bye week, Chicago ranked last in rushing DVOA and averaged just 3.8 yards per carry.
But Ben Johnson's guys found huge answers during the time away and have exploded since. Chicago has averaged 187 YPG on the ground in four games since the bye, all the way up to 5.9 YPC, and the Bears rank top four in both EPA per rush and rushing Success Rate during that stretch and have climbed all the way to 8th in DVOA on the season.
We'll see if D'Andre Swift is back this week or if rookie Kyle Monangai will feature again, but either way, this looks like a great spot to invest in RB overs and keep riding this red-hot rushing attack against a run defense that's been terrible all season.
All the better that this game looks weather-impacted, with heavy winds expected and even a chance of Chicago snow. The Giants have allowed 33+ points in three straight games, and that weather should set up a ground game and give the Bears a big advantage.
Seahawks Moneyline
Cardinals vs Seahawks: Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
The world finally woke up to just how well the Seahawks have been playing on Sunday night, then got a taste of how good the division-rival Cardinals can look one night later as both teams picked up big primetime wins.
Seattle has dominated this division rivalry of late, though. The Seahawks have won eight straight against the Cardinals, six of the eight by at least a touchdown. That's where this spread sits, and Seattle is in good shape to add to its tally.
The Seahawks sit first in DVOA halfway through the season, currently FTN's pick to win the Super Bowl.
Seattle is good at almost everything. The Seahawks also have the best special teams unit in the league — a huge weekly hidden advantage — and rank in the top four in both rushing and passing defense. Seattle leads the league in passing DVOA, too.
The one fly in the ointment is Seattle's rushing attack, but Klint Kubiak's commitment to the run game and ability to pass out of heavy alignment have ravaged opponents all season. That could be the case again here, dictating things against Hunter Rallis's preferred defensive setups and using play-action plays to open up avenues for Sam Darnold to get the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and new target Rashid Shaheed.
It looks like Arizona is sticking with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, but neither Cardinals QB has pushed this offense very far this season. Arizona ranks in the fringe bottom 10 in many key offensive metrics and that should mean a struggle to find points against this aggressive Mike Macdonald defense.
Arizona is riding high after a big win, but it is a short week for them and Seattle has too many advantages. The Seahawks should keep rolling.
If you somehow still haven't invested in Seahawks futures despite my weekly pleading, there's still some value thanks to San Francisco getting too much market credit.
Seattle is +160 to win the division (DraftKings) but over 50% to do so at FTN — and that Sam Darnold MVP ticket we recommended at 50-1 a couple weeks ago is down to 20-1 and rising.
Lions Moneyline
Lions vs Commanders: Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
This was our Lookahead pick at Lions -3 last week, and suffice to say we should get some crazy CLV on that one.
It's Lions -9 now and rising at most books after the latest Jayden Daniels injury — Washington is teetering on the brink of a lost season.
And it's not just Daniels. Terry McLaurin is hurt again. Offensive linemen Laremy Tunsil and Sam Cosmi are laboring. Star corner Marshon Lattimore joins veterans Dorance Armstrong and Will Harris on IR — three top starters from a defense already lacking talent.
This was already a mismatch even if the Commanders had come in at full strength, but it's not even close with everyone injured. Detroit's offense has struggled a bit of late, but should enjoy a get-right game against a reeling defense that couldn't do a thing to stop Seattle on Sunday night.
And don't forget the revenge factor. The last time these teams met, Dan Campbell's guys were embarrassed in the playoffs, 45-31, and Campbell is the sort of guy who circles a spot and gets his team ready for a revenge spot.
Detroit was shorthanded in that one. This time it's Washington, and don't expect the Lions to hold back.
There's still some value on Lions division futures at +140 (Caesars) with Detroit still about a coin flip to win it. The Lions didn't lose much ground thanks to Green Bay also losing; the real loss was their push for a top-two NFC seed.
Rams Moneyline
Rams vs 49ers: Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Rams were the first bet on my card Sunday night on the Hot Read.
Somehow, maybe because they're playing out west and haven't had a primetime game in a minute, it feels like the Rams are being underrated as a legitimate juggernaut and Super Bowl contender.
Everyone knows how good the offense is, though it's been even better than you think — top three by DVOA both rushing and passing, with Matthew Stafford a legit MVP candidate. But did you know the defense is also top six by DVOA in both run and pass?
That defense is going to come into this game mad after the way it was embarrassed by the 49ers a month ago on Thursday night, and the Rams offense will also face a very different challenge since San Francisco's defense has been hit by an absolute barrage of injuries.
The 49ers have a real argument for the worst defense in the league with so many names missing — not just Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, but names on down the list like Mykel Williams, Yetur Gross-Matos, Bryce Huff and others. This was already a top-heavy defense with a gap in talent entering the season; those holes are massive now.
What are the 49ers better at than the Rams? They have Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, and that's about it.
The Rams are better at virtually every other position, better on both sides of the ball, even better on special teams. It looks like Brock Purdy remains in doubt too, so the gap at QB is massive.
Kyle Shanahan's mighty offense has topped 21 points only three times all season — against the lowly Giants and Saints, and in the previous Rams meeting. Sean McVay used to struggle against Shanahan but has found answers in recent years, covering four of the last five meetings.
San Francisco is fighting and a win here would be huge, but the talent deficit is simply too large with all the injuries.
Week 10 Moneyline Parlay
- Colts Moneyline
- Bills Moneyline
- Bears Moneyline
- Seahawks Moneyline
- Lions Moneyline
- Rams Moneyline
Anderson's Extra Point
It's time to fade the Chargers
You'll notice our Sunday Pick Six ended early this week — no Sunday night pick, and in particular, no backing the favored Chargers.
Suffice to say I actually considered the Steelers strongly.
This is typically an excellent spot for Pittsburgh, not just the usual Rah Rah underdog spot for Mike Tomlin, but it's also a good spot to double down.
When Tomlin's Steelers win as underdogs but are either underdogs or favorites under a field goal again the following week, Pittsburgh is 20-5-2 ATS, including eight straight outright wins.
History tells us we might not have adjusted enough to how well Pittsburgh played last week, and in this particular matchup, that ferocious Steel Curtain defensive front looks like an especially big problem with Joe Alt sidelined for the season along with Rashawn Slater.
The Chargers built their team around an elite QB, outstanding coaching and two stud tackles. They're now without both tackles, and Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh are great, but they can only do so much.
Jesse Minter's defense looks mostly average and subpar against the run, and the Chargers have struggled to run since losing Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton.
L.A. just isn't that great at anything in particular, and the Alt re-injury has come at the worst time, with the next two games against teams the Chargers are battling for playoff spots in Pittsburgh and Jacksonville.
Right now, the Chargers look like a safe playoff team at 6-3, but they could be 6-5 and on the wrong side of two key tiebreakers very quickly. There's also still road division games in Kansas City and Denver, along with an Eagles game and tough Texans and Cowboys outings.
It's just hard to see the Chargers coming back from the death of the offensive line this season. Those cluster injuries can bring an entire offense down, and the wrong missed block at the wrong time could also put Herbert on the sidelines and end things for good.
There's real value on a ticket for the Chargers to miss the playoffs at +225 (BetRivers), implied 31% versus almost 45% at FTN.
That number gets even higher if the Chargers lose to the Steelers or Jaguars the next two weeks, and it skyrockets if they lose both.
I figure the AFC wildcards go to one of Denver or Kansas City and one of Buffalo or New England, leaving one spot left for the Chargers to snag. Their competition are the teams on L.A.'s schedule: Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Houston, and perhaps a charging Baltimore team.
It's time to fade the Chargers. Grab a ticket at +225 to miss the playoffs while it's available.
