For my money, the Divisional Round is the best weekend in football.
Wild Card Weekend is fun but often loaded with blowouts — five of the six games last weekend ended with a margin of at least 12 points, as expected. But now we're down to the final eight teams, the best of the best, and that starts with two rested No. 1 seeds kicking off their postseasons on Saturday.
The Chiefs and Lions have been the story of the season, but now they'll have to fend off the Texans and Commanders, both of whom won as underdogs last weekend.
Everyone always expects these rested No. 1 seeds to roll, but history warns us to take these underdogs very seriously. Let's jump into what could be a much more competitive Saturday than you might expect with my NFL Divisional Round picks.
NFL Predictions: Saturday Divisional Round Picks
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Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans +9.5 | Texans ATS & Chiefs ML SGP | Xavier Worthy & Travis Kelce Escalators
The Chiefs are obviously the better team and played their best ball of the season down the stretch, ranking in the top five by DVOA on both offense and defense during their final four games of the season, excluding a Week 18 rest spot.
But, of course, Kansas City is better. The Chiefs are 15-2 and the No. 1 seed, back-to-back defending champions. You don't need anyone to tell you how good Patrick Mahomes is.
This particular matchup has some real edges in Houston's favor.
Houston edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have been as good rushing the passer as any tandem in the NFL, and Kansas City's usually stout offensive line has seen very poor play at both tackle positions all season. Anytime Mahomes has struggled in the playoffs, it's because he has been under pressure.
The Texans offense rates as by far the worst unit on the field — pick any advanced metric and it'll tell you this offense was terrible — but the lone bright spot all season has been WR Nico Collins. He was as good as any wideout in the league when healthy, and the Chiefs rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
If Anderson and Hunter create havoc all game, Houston's defense can hang. If C.J. Stroud can hit Collins for a few big plays, the Texans can actually compete.
The Chiefs score only 22.4 points per game against top-12 defenses on the season, including 21 or fewer in more than half of those nine games without scoring 31. The Texans are at 18.3 points per game in that spot. I lean toward the under, and though the total is too low to bet it at 41.5, that only makes 8.5 points on the spread all the more valuable.
The Chiefs have a rest advantage, and we know how good Andy Reid is with extra time to prepare. Don't forget Houston got to rest in Week 18 too, and the Texans could have some momentum after a big win last week while the Chiefs could be rusty after over three weeks off.
That does give Kansas City a clear health advantage, though. Keep a close eye on key Houston injuries along the offensive line and to RB Joe Mixon and LB Azeez Al-Shaair, both questionable and very important to this team's identity.
Against the Spread Pick
In the Wild Card Round, we backed the big home favorites. We hit big on a Bills escalator last week and could've cashed on the Ravens too if not for garbage time. A myriad of trends tell us to do the exact opposite in the Divisional Round, though.
Home favorites in the Divisional Round are 34-46-1 against the spread (ATS) over the past couple of decades, covering just 42% of the time with the underdogs 28-53 straight up, a 15% ROI on the moneyline.
Divisional Round favorites winning over 75% of games (13-4 or better) are 18-32 ATS (36%), and it's even worse for No. 1 seeds coming off the bye this round at just 15-27-1 ATS (36%). Underdogs of 10 or fewer points facing a No. 1 seed are 71% ATS, with 11 of the last 32 winning outright — a shocking number.
All of those trends say the same thing: Books and bettors get way too confident in rested No. 1 seeds this round.
It's even worse if the rested team is coming off a loss. Home teams on a one-game losing streak are an ugly 4-16 ATS in the Divisional Round (20%), with 'dogs of nine or less a perfect 13-0 ATS against them, including a winning 7-6 record SU.
You can only be on a losing streak at home in the Divisional Round if you lost your last game of the regular season — maybe that extra week of rest does more harm than good! Playoff teams off a three-score loss are 6-20 ATS (23%).
I knew from the moment Houston won last week that we'd have to bet them this week.
Texans +8.5 is the trend spot of the week.
History says Houston hangs close, but that the Texans likely can't finish the job. Underdog winners from the Wild Card Round are just 1-20 straight up the following week since 2012. This game may ultimately be won and lost on third down, and that's advantage Mahomes and Steve Spagnuolo's defense.
But that doesn't mean we can't play an escalator here.
The Chiefs were 11-0 in one-score games this season. Five of those wins were by three or less, and four of Kansas City's last six playoff wins were by three or less, too. The Chiefs don't always impress, but they always seem to find a way.
Build an SGP with Texans +8.5 and a Chiefs moneyline at +209 (FanDuel) for the Chiefs to win by one score. That bet is a perfect 6-0 this season when Kansas City is favored by at least a touchdown.
You can also build an SGP with Texans +3.5 and Kansas City ML at +600 (FanDuel) for the Chiefs to win by three or less yet again.
Picks: Texans +8.5 (-110; BetMGM) | Texans +8.5 & Chiefs ML SGP (+209; FanDuel) | Texans +3.5 & Chiefs ML SGP (+600; FanDuel)
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props
I'm on Texans +8.5, but I prefer a couple of Chiefs pass catchers for props.
Rookie Xavier Worthy has quietly become a really central part of this offense right as Kansas City's attack played its best ball down the stretch.
Early this season, Worthy was being used mostly as a deep-ball threat, but his role has changed completely from Week 13 forward. He's increased from the 14% target share before that to 21% after and nearly 50% higher targets per route as well, and his aDOT has been nearly cut in half. Suddenly Worthy is being used similarly to Rashee Rice at the start of the season, as the underneath target and go-to guy in this offense.
In Worthy's last three games, he played at least 80% of the snaps in all three with six, seven, and eight catches, averaging seven catches on 10.3 targets for 63 yards. The Texans rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to receivers. They also allowed the second most touchdowns, and Worthy has scored in each of his last three, so there may be value there at +220 (FanDuel).
I prefer a receptions escalator. Worthy's aDOT is so low that I want the volume play. Start with the majority of your bet on over 4.5 receptions at -136 and 6+ catches at +152 (both FanDuel), then touch 7+ receptions (+280; FanDuel) and 8+ catches (+525 ;bet365) on the way up.
If you want a yards play, look for a book that lets you bet on rushing + receiving yards. The Chiefs are using Worthy more in the run game lately too, with eight runs for 50 yards in those last three games in his bigger role. That means he's had at least 75 rushing + receiving yards in three straight, so that's worth touching too, with 75+ rushing + receiving yards at +190 (bet365).
Picks: Xavier Worthy receptions escalator: Over 4.5 (-136; FanDuel), 6+ (+152; FanDuel), 7+ (+280; FanDuel); 8+ (+525; bet365) | 75+ rushing & receiving yards (+190; bet365)
Worthy is the flashy rookie, but Travis Kelce is the Chief with all the history.
Over the last four postseasons, Kelce has caught 113 passes for 1,1271 yards and 13 TDs. He has at least one touchdown in 10 of the 13 and at least 71 yards receiving in every one of them. That's effectively a top-five all-time season by a tight end in only 13 games at the highest level of football. In 18 playoff games with Mahomes all-time, Kelce has 18 touchdowns, with at least one in 13 of them (72%).
I'm well aware Kelce is getting older and failed to crack 1,000 yards this season, and I know he scored only three times. Throw out the regular season numbers. That's basically what Kelce did a season ago too, and then when it got to the playoffs where he'd saved his best all season, he was his usual monster self.
That's why I'm playing a Travis Kelce legacy escalator.
Start with an Anytime TD at +160 (FanDuel), a downright insulting number considering Kelce's past suggests his price should be more like -250. You can play two TDs if you like at +1300.
I prefer going another direction, tipped off by Gilles Gallant, because Kelce has a weird knack for being the first scorer in Chiefs playoff games. He's had the first Chiefs touchdown in five of seven Kansas City playoff games the last two years!
Bet Travis Kelce to score the first Chiefs TD at +475 (DraftKings), and even better, take Kelce to score the first Chiefs TD in a Kansas City win at +850 (DraftKings) — again, that bet has cashed in five of the last seven Chiefs playoff games.
Kelce has tied or led the postseason in receiving touchdowns in three of the last four playoffs, so that's a good bet too at +950 (FanDuel) if you like betting stat leaders. He's +2000 at BetMGM to catch at least four touchdowns this postseason, which would break Jerry Rice's all-time postseason record of 22.
I like betting on Kelce in the red zone more than yardage volume at this stage of his career, but Kelce's yardage total is insultingly low too at 51.5. He's averaging 98 yards per game the last four postseasons with at least 71 yards in all 13 games, so perhaps 70+ yards is the better play at +235 (FanDuel).
Lastly, if you think the Chiefs make the Super Bowl, it's an absolute no-brainer taking Kelce to record the most receiving yards this postseason by a tight end at +350 at bet365.
Maybe Travis Kelce is ready to ride off into the sunset with Taylor Swift, and maybe that old Kelce really isn't in there anymore. But he has been in every playoff game so far, and I'll pay him off until he proves otherwise with this legacy escalator.
Picks: Travis Kelce legacy escalator: Anytime TD (+160; FanDuel) | First Chiefs TD (+475; DraftKings) | First Chiefs TD in a Kansas City win (+850; DraftKings) | Most playoff receiving TDs (+950; FanDuel)
Kelce Yardage Picks: 70+ receiving yards (+235; FanDuel) | Most playoff receiving yards by a TE (+350; bet365)
Commanders vs. Lions
Commanders +9.5 | Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Overs
Are we totally positive we think what we think about these teams?
The season-long arc and metrics paint a pretty easy story here. Both offenses are really good, but Detroit's is even better. The defenses, though, make this a mismatch.
Detroit's defense has been up and down but ranks in the top five by DVOA, and Washington ranks in the bottom 10. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's unit should get anything it wants and Jayden Daniels will struggle on the road in Detroit, where Jared Goff has been practically invincible.
That's pretty much that … right?
Take a closer look at what these teams are right now, though.
Over the last six weeks, it's Detroit's defense, not Washington's, that ranks near the bottom of the league. The Lions rank in the bottom five by DVOA over that stretch, including 30th in the last three games before the impressive finale against Minnesota's sputtering offense.
Meanwhile, Washington's defense ranked in the top 10 over that same stretch by DVOA, including top 12 against both the run and the pass. Dan Quinn seems to have found some answers in the late bye, and Washington is coming off one of its best defensive performances of the season, holding a top-seven Bucs offense to just 20 points.
I'm not convinced Washington's defense is top 10 yet, or anything close, but that unit might be as good as Detroit's at this point, maybe even better.
The Lions defense faced six top-10 DVOA offenses this season and gave up 27.8 points per game, including 31, 34 and 48 points over the final month and a half as the defense accumulated so many injuries.
Both teams are going to score in this game, and books are basically telling us that with a huge 55.5 total. That means this could very well turn into a shootout.
Which quarterback do you trust in a shootout? Goff has been good at home, but Daniels has been absolutely electric, and Terry McLaurin is red hot. Both of these coaches have been very aggressive on fourth downs all season. Don't be surprised if this entire game comes down to 3-to-5 fourth-down conversions.
That makes this a potentially very dangerous game for Detroit. And it means Washington is very live.
Against the Spread Pick
Remember, all the trends in the Divisional Round practically beg us to fade the No. 1 seeds.
Fading home Divisional Round favorites hits at 58% ATS, and fading the rested No. 1 seed this round hits at 64%. Road teams this round that missed last year's playoffs are 28-14 ATS, a 67% hit rate. That trend is the opposite in the Wild Card Round, where we fade inexperience, but Washington has proven it belongs now with a road win in Tampa. This team is for real.
Detroit went 6-2 against teams that made the playoffs but only two of those wins were by seven or more points. The other six games were all close. Detroit's defense hasn't been able to slam the door shut.
Washington hasn't lost by more than eight points since the season opener, the first game of Daniels' career. In fact, 13-of-18 Commanders games this season finished within one score, including four of Washington's five losses.
The trends and matchups both say to bet Washington +9.5 — but we're not stopping there.
Every one of those trends that say to bet on road underdogs in the Divisional Round also says to take them on the moneyline, with ROI anywhere from 15 to 36%, depending on the trend. Divisional Round underdogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-25 straight up, winning more than one in three times with a 43% ROI on the moneyline.
For whatever reason, whether it's rest or rust or just all that pressure on the teams that were great all season, those top dogs are falling short of the mark.
Those trends would fit Houston ML too, but I can't get there betting against Mahomes. But I can talk myself into Daniels against Goff.
Underdogs that win in the Wild Card Round are just 1-20 straight up in the following round since 2012, so these back-to-back upsets only seem to happen with a team of destiny.
Is Washington that team? The Commanders have an incredible seven wins this season in the final 10 seconds, including each of the past five games. Washington stopped a Saints 2-point conversion with 0:00 on the clock, scored winning touchdowns against the Eagles and Cowboys with six and three seconds left, scored an overtime walkoff TD against the Falcons, and then hit the D.C. Doink field goal to walk off last week's win.
All season long, we talked about Detroit as the team of destiny.
What if Washington was the team of destiny all along?
Detroit is too good not to keep this close and fight all the way, and Washington keeps winning close late. I'll pass on the +410 moneyline and go for the kill: Washington to win by 1-to-6 points at +600 (DraftKings).
Picks: Commanders +9.5 | Commanders to win by 1 to 6 (+600; DraftKings)
Commanders vs. Lions Prop Picks
There are all sorts of fun props to get interested in with a total at 55.5.
Aaron Glenn will bring pressure like Tampa Bay did last week, so another Jayden Daniels rushing escalator makes sense with his propensity to scramble. But with lines at 9.5 attempts and 54.5 yards, there may not be much value there.
Ditto the Terry McLaurin and Amon-Ra St. Brown props I considered. McLaurin can't stop scoring touchdowns, and St. Brown should eat over the middle of the field in this one, but these edges have all been priced in.
Instead, I'll ride with Austin Ekeler.
The Lions rank in the bottom five by DVOA against RB receiving. They were top 10 in most receiving yards allowed to RBs and got worse late in the season as Detroit's defense faded, allowing 30+ yards to a receiving RB in six of the Lions' last nine games. Remember how Buffalo unleashed Ty Johnson on the Lions for 114 yards as a pass-catcher? That was a targeted attack on this team's linebackers.
Ekeler returned last week and made an immediate impact, despite ramping back up with only 47% of the snaps. He was targeted four times in the passing game and caught three balls.
Ekeler played 50% of the snaps seven times this season, including all five Washington losses, and he averaged 3.3 receptions on four targets in those games for 32 yards. He only had three games all season with four catches, but those games came in losses to the Ravens, Bucs, and Eagles — the most Detroit-like opponents — with at least 47 yards receiving in all three games.
Pass on the traditional over 22.5 receiving yards for Ekeler, since his production has been relatively hit-or-miss this season, and take the escalator instead: 40+ receiving yards at +300 and 50+ yards at +525 (both bet365).
Picks: Austin Ekeler 40+ Receiving Yards (+300; bet365) | 50+ Yards (+525; bet365)
