NFL Week 4 has arrived, bringing a slate filled with heavy chalk, mid-tier options, and a few contrarian pivots.
On the surface, Buffalo looks like the clear play in NFL Survivor, but they also carry a ton of future value. Meanwhile, Pick’em pool players should be scanning for leverage spots where the public numbers don’t match the actual odds.
Below, we’ll break down the Week 4 landscape and highlight some of the smartest angles when it comes to NFL Survivor Picks and Game Winner Pick’em Pools.
NFL Week 4 Survivor & Pick’em Picks
When it comes to NFL Survivor, the best choice isn’t always the most obvious one (if you want to last the whole season or gain leverage on the crowd). Your pool’s size, rules, and format all matter. That’s why PoolGenius exists, giving you fully customized recommendations for NFL Survivor and Pick’em contests.
You can test-drive these tools with the free trial offer below, or unlock exclusive season-long discounts via Action Network.
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NFL Survivor Picks Week 4: Should You Use the Bills?
Buffalo enters Week 4 as a massive 16.5-point home favorite against the 0-3 Saints.
New Orleans got clobbered by Seattle last week and now faces one of the toughest road trips in football. It’s no surprise the Bills are tracking as the most popular NFL Survivor pick of the week.
The question is timing.
Buffalo also projects as a 79 percent favorite at home against New England in Week 5, plus multiple other weeks above 75 percent win odds.
Planning Ahead for Week 5
Let’s take a quick look at the win odd projections for Week 5 to map this out:
- Baltimore: 80% (vs. Houston)
- Buffalo: 79% (vs. New England)
- Arizona: 75% (vs. Tennessee)
- Indianapolis: 73% (vs. Las Vegas)
- Detroit: 72% (at Cincinnati)
If you have already used Arizona and Baltimore, you either need to get comfortable with the Colts (or another option) or consider saving Buffalo for this Week 5 spot. Definitely take that into consideration before locking in your NFL Week 4 Survivor pick.
Other NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks
If you’re looking to save the Bills — or have already used them — here are four other viable NFL Survivor picks for Week 4, along with the pros and cons of each. Popularity estimate is for standard pools via PoolGenius.
Detroit Lions (vs. Cleveland Browns, 23% popularity)
Detroit has bounced back from its Week 1 stumble and now hosts Cleveland as a 9-point favorite. The Lions also rank near the top of the league in rest-of-season future value, with several matchups above 70 percent win odds.
Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee Titans, 15% popularity)
This may be Houston’s only strong Survivor spot all season, with win odds near 75 percent against Tennessee. Sharper pools may push the Texans' popularity higher, since this could be the last time you can realistically use them.
Denver Broncos (vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 9% popularity)
Denver is favored by a touchdown on Monday Night Football. Many players already burned them in Week 1, but if you still have them, this is a decent pivot away from the chalk while facing the Joe Burrow-less Bengals.
Los Angeles Chargers (at New York Giants, 9% popularity)
The Chargers are 3-0 and laying nearly a touchdown on the road. With multiple strong spots still on the schedule, they are a fine but not essential play this week.
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NFL Pick’em Advice for Week 4: Value in Kansas City?
Game-winner pools are about finding gaps between public popularity and actual win odds. This week, Kansas City offers just that.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
- Spread: +2.5
- Win Odds: 43.9%
- Pick Popularity: 28.0%
The Chiefs have not looked sharp, but the market is still underrating them at home.
Baltimore has issues of its own, especially on defense, and this game is closer to a coin flip than the current pick rate suggests. With public pick rates trailing the actual probabilities, Kansas City is a reasonable leverage play.
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Get Your NFL Survivor and Pick’em Edges
The key to winning Survivor and Pick’em pools is finding value the public misses — whether that means holding back Buffalo for later in Survivor or taking a low-popularity shot in Kansas City in pick’em pools.
Use the PoolGenius tools to get fully customized recommendations for your exact pool rules and settings.
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