The regular season was a mixed bag for the NFL Luck Rankings.
- Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that met one of our three criteria were 16-18-1 (47.1%) against the spread (ATS)
- Luck Unders were 15-11-0 (57.7%) to the under
- Luck Overs were 6-1-0 (85.7%) to the over
Overall, a bet on any luck-based side or total ended with a 37-30-1 (55.1%) record. Betting to win $100 each at -110 odds equates to $400 profit, and an ROI of 5.3% over 68 total bets.
That's not as good as last year's 20.5% ROI, but it does mark another profitable regular season for the Luck Rankings against NFL closing sides and totals. Much of this year's dip in performance can be attributed to a historic year for favorites, which gave the sides portion of the Luck Rankings their sub-.500 season ever.
Thankfully, the Luck Rankings have also been effective in betting totals in the playoffs. Of course, you must always consider other factors than just the Luck Rankings, but they're a great place to start when handicapping playoff totals.
Luck Rankings Playoff Trends
Luck Totals
The main playoff trend to worry about in the postseason is around Luck Totals.
Over the last six years (74 games), there has been a statistically significant correlation between the magnitude of the Luck Total and the probability of the game going over or under its closing total.
In the image above, as an example, you see that based on those 74 games, the crosshairs show that a game with a Luck Total of -1 has historically had a 55% chance of staying under the closing total. We can slide the reference lines to the left or right along the blue line. Sliding to the right means a higher probability of going over the closing total, which corresponds with a positive Luck Total. Sliding to the left correlates with a higher probability of staying under the closing totals.
Using that data, we can break down Luck Totals into the following bins over the last six years.
- Luck Totals of +1.25 or higher are 11-5 (68.8%) to the over
- Luck Totals of -1.25 or lower are 23-8 (74.2%) to the under
- Luck Totals between -1.25 and +1.25 are 14-12-1 to the over (53.7%)
So, if the Luck Total has an absolute value greater than 1.25, games are 34-13 (72.3%) directionally either to the over or under, depending on whether the Luck Total is positive or negative.
These are technically predictive results since the Luck Totals stem from regular-season data (and any subsequent rounds of the playoffs) that are then used to "predict" whether the game will go over or under the closing total.
Wild Card Weekend Luck Rankings Games
For this year's Wild Card Weekend, two of the six games have a Luck Total that's well beyond the +/- 1.25 threshold.
