The Bears (10-4) host the Packers (9-4-1) to close the Saturday NFL slate tonight. Kickoff from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Packers vs Bears will broadcast live on FOX.
Packers vs Bears odds list the Bears as -120 favorites on the moneyline and Packers as +100 underdogs. The over/under is 45 points. The Bears are 1-point favorites on the spread (Bears -1).
Below, you can find Packers vs Bears picks and NFL best bets, which include predictions for the moneyline, total and props for Caleb Williams (pass attempts), Dontayvion Wicks (anytime TD) and C.J. Gardner Johnson (tackles + assists).
Packers vs Bears Props & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs Bears Odds, Lines
| Green Bay Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Chicago Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -120 |
NFL odds via bet365
Packers vs Bears Moneyline Prediction
In my opinion, the Bears are one of the biggest paper tigers in the NFL. Action Network's Luck Rankings have the Bears sitting at No. 2, indicating that they have vastly overperformed this season.
The Packers are much more efficient in the air than the Bears, and the rush attacks are similar in strength. The Packers are the best team in the NFL on third down, tallying .33 EPA/play in that situation. They are also much more efficient in the red zone compared to the Bears.
I think Green Bay comes out victorious in this NFC North matchup to complete the season sweep.
Pick: Packers Moneyline (+100)
Packers vs Bears Over/Under Pick
The Bears and Packers just played in Week 14 with 49 total points being scored, but I am expecting a lower scoring affair in this one.
While Green Bay averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt, Christian Watson created explosive plays that increased that average dramatically and put up 14 points on the board in doing so on two particular chunk plays. Watson is a game-time decision due to chest and shoulder injuries — at best, I expect him to be limited to a snap count.
It’s worth noting that when Watson was off of the field last week, Jordan Love generated just 5.4 yards per pass attempt and threw an interception. I am skeptical Watson will play a full slate of snaps in this game. Right tackle Zach Tom is also set to miss this game, a significant loss considering Tom has allowed just 16 pressures this entire season.
Chicago averaged 4.6 yards per play in that meeting two weeks ago; Ben Johnson will have an even more difficult task tonight without Luther Burden III or Rome Odunze in the lineup.
The Bears have led the NFL in success rate on the ground since their Week 5 bye, and it is all but a certainty we see an extremely heavy dose of the rushing attack with big personnel on the field for the majority of this game.
Games involving the Bears have gone under the total in four of the last six games, and with the skill players surrounding Caleb Williams lacking explosive ability, this game is going to turn into a grind.
The weather forecast calls for cold temperatures and winds sustaining around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
Pick: Under 46.5; bet to Under 45.5
Caleb Williams Player Props: Pass Attempts
By Nick Galaida
In Chicago’s four losses this season, Caleb Williams finished with 35, 30, 38 and 35 pass attempts. The only game in which he’s had fewer than 35 pass attempts in a loss was in a Week 2 blowout against the Lions when backup Tyson Bagent entered for him in the fourth quarter.
Overall, Williams has gone over this number in 9-of-14 games this season. He threw the rock 35 times in the first Bears-Packers game on Dec. 7.
Pick: Caleb Williams Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
Dontayvion Wicks Anytime TD Pick
From an injury standpoint, this game is loaded with landmines.
For the Packers, Josh Jacobs is questionable with a knee injury and Christian Watson is questionable with shoulder and chest injuries — though he did log limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday.
If Watson is out or limited in any fashion, Dontayvion Wicks is an attractive play at around +425.
The Bears utilize a higher rate of man coverage (eighth-highest rate) and Wicks has been historically much better against man with a higher targets per route run (TPRR). Remember, he scored twice against the Lions, who also use a lot of man defense.
It's worth monitoring the injury report as we get closer to game time to have a better of idea who will be suiting up for Green Bay. Wicks is also listed on the injury report as questionable, but logged limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday.
Pick: Dontayvion Wicks Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+425)
C.J. Gardner-Johnson Prop: Tackles + Assists
By Sean Koerner
Gardner-Johnson racked up 10 tackles against Packers when they met a couple of weeks ago as Jordan Love picked on him in coverage. Due to the Bears dealing with so many injuries at LB, they had to shift Gardner-Johnson's usage around at times, and against the Packers he lined up in the box a season-high 29 times.
Last week, he shifted back to a season-high 41 snaps in the slot, and the slot is the alignment where he’s seeing a much lower tackle rate (7.9% of snaps). I think Gardner-Johnson stays heavily in that role tonight as the Bears will likely be getting LB Tremaine Edmunds back, which should take a ton of pressure off Gardner-Johnson in run defense.
In fact, I’m projecting Gardner-Johnson around a 95% snap rate, but with the defense back to full health, I do wonder if there are some packages where he might not be on the field. Either way, I’m still projecting him at 95%, with at least some chance that he ends up playing fewer snaps than that. With Edmunds and T.J. Edwards both healthy for the first time since Week 11, I’m expecting that to chip away at Gardner-Johnson's tackle rate.
That doesn’t mean Gardner-Johnson can’t clear this again and rack up 10+ tackles. He’s been boom/bust, clearing this in just two of six games (33%) where he’s been a full-time player for the Bears, and in both of those games he sailed way over with nine and 10 tackles. But with Edmunds back, I’m projecting Gardner-Johnson closer to 5.0, with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.
There are a lot of moving parts here, which makes this a bit tricky to project, but with only two more full weeks of regular-season football before the Week 18 crapshoot, I’m more willing to roll the dice on this despite the wide range of outcomes.
Pick: C.J. Gardner-Johnson Under 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-111)
