Mike Calabrese is back with two more player props ahead of the full Saturday slate.
This time around, he’s targeting one of Jonathan Smith’s favorite weapons and advocating for a ladder strategy with a high-upside dual-threat quarterback in the TCU-Stanford nightcap.
Let's dive into his college football player props for Michigan State's Jack Velling and Stanford's Ashton Daniels on Friday, Aug. 30.
College Football Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's top player props from Friday's slate of college football games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State Player Props
Jack Velling Anytime TD (+162)
It’s rare in modern college football to see a touchdown prop for a tight end under +200. So, why am I targeting Velling to score against FAU? Because he’s an elite red-zone weapon.
Last season, Velling reeled in eight touchdown passes playing for Oregon State, with five of those scores coming from inside the 10-yard line.
Velling followed head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State, where he’s been reunited with position coach Brian Wozniak and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren.
They had faith in him out in Corvallis, and I don’t expect that to change now that he’s in the Green and White.
Given this coaching staff’s track record, it’s conceivable that Velling will finish as the program’s leader in targets, or at the very least, in the top three.
As a team, FAU struggled to contain the pass last season. The Owls slotted 105th in pass defense, but they really struggled in the red zone when teams went to the air.
Roc Bellantoni’s defense surrendered 15 passing touchdowns inside its own 20, which was tied for 72nd in the country.
In limited action last season for Oregon State, Aidan Chiles connected with Velling for a red-zone score. Chiles has been named the starter, and I anticipate him looking for his old teammate early and often in his first career start.
Safety blankets are more valuable from a statistical perspective when their quarterbacks are looking to settle in early in a game, or in this case, early in their career.
Pick: Jack Velling Anytime TD (+162)
TCU vs. Stanford Player Props
Ashton Daniels Over 23.5 Rushing Yards
I was very surprised to see Daniels’ rushing total below 30 in this matchup against TCU.
For starters, Stanford head coach Troy Taylor loves to run his quarterbacks. There isn’t a play-caller in the entire country who run his quarterbacks more than Taylor has in the past five seasons. Taylor’s carry share for his quarterbacks has been 29.5% dating back to 2019, according to theCFFsite.
After being thrust into the starting role last season, Daniels finally spent an entire offseason as the entrenched “guy.”
This is important because it’s going to allow Taylor and his offensive staff to tailor even more designed runs for their best playmaker.
Stanford dabbled in zone read, counter, power and draw concepts with Daniels throughout the 2023 season. He has a second gear when he hits the second and third levels of the defense.
I have little doubt that Daniels is going to carry it 10 or more times in this game. And if 2023 was any indication, he’ll likely hit at least one explosive run of 15 yards or more.
Where this bet sinks or swims will be Stanford’s pass protection. As we know, sack yardage in college counts against rushing totals. So, if he takes three or more sacks in this game, we may be drawing dead on the prop. Can Stanford keep him clean in the pocket?
The Cardinal ranked 120th in PFF pass blocking while allowing 3.42 sacks per game last season. Those were ghastly numbers, but there’s good news on two fronts. The first is that Stanford returns four starters along the line — five if you relax your threshold for what qualifies as a returning starter.
TCU was below average at getting after the quarterback last season.
The Horned Frogs also lost their anchor at defensive tackle when Damonic Williams transferred to Oklahoma after the spring. That's a big blow to a run defense that finished just 77th last fall.
I have a feeling this is going to a sweat-free bet in either direction. If Daniels avoids more than a sack or two, he should comfortably clear this number and could flirt with 50 or 60 yards on the ground.
Depending on the book, this is an ideal spot to ladder this play — one unit on over 23.5, a half-unit on 40-plus and a quarter-unit on 60-plus.
Keep in mind, down the stretch last season, Daniels ran for 81 yards on 18 carries against Washington and 67 yards against Cal. He has the upside to go off.
Pick: Ashton Daniels Over 23.5 Rushing Yards
