On Wednesday, the Bryant Bulldogs take on the St. John's Red Storm in Queens, NY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
St. John's is favored by 23.5 points on the spread with a total of 161 points.
Here are my Bryant vs. St. John's predictions and college basketball picks for December 11, 2024.
Bryant vs St. John's Prediction
My Pick: Bryant +21 or Better
My Bryant vs St. John's best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Bryant vs St. John's Odds, Spread
| Bryant Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 161 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 161 -110o / -110u | OFF |
- Bryant vs St. John's spread: St. John's -23.5
- Bryant vs St. John's over/under: 161 points
- Bryant vs St. John's best bet: Bryant +21 or Better
Bryant vs St. John's NCAAB Betting Preview
These are two very similar teams.
Both defenses extend pressure to the perimeter while overhelping on ball-screen and dribble-penetration coverage to deny the rim. Predictably, both defenses excel at defending the rim.
Instead of allowing rim-and-3 opportunities, the Bulldogs and Johnnies bait and funnel opponents into isolation creation in the mid-range and high-paint areas.
The best way to beat a ball-screen-blitzing, rim-denial defense is to run five-out floor-spacing lineups with sharpshooters who can exploit scrambling defenders on the weak side. You have to break the defense down, invite the help, and then shoot the ball cross-court for a quick jumper before the rotations come.
But, somewhat ironically, both offenses lack floor spacers and spend too much time meddling in the middle of the floor.
The Red Storm's Kadary Richmond is a fantastic two-way bully-ball point guard. Still, he’s not a volume shooter from deep. The same goes for backcourt mates Deivon Smith and Simeon Wilcher. A backcourt filled with off-the-dribble mid-range hoopers isn’t ideal for spacing.
However, the Johnnies have a stretch forward option with RJ Luis Jr. running at the four, and you can throw Aaron Scott or Brady Dunlap in the corner when either plays at the three. There are options, albeit limited.
While Phil Martelli Jr. has transformed Bryant’s defense, the Bulldogs’ offense is still mismanaged. It ranks 346th nationally in rim-and-3 rate, 307th in 3-point rate and 258th in ShotQuality’s “Shot Selection” metric.
Despite rostering a few sharp-shooting wing/forward ‘tweeners like Rafael Pinzon and Connor Withers, the Bulldogs are still not earning good shots. The injury to Marist transfer Kam Farris doesn’t help, given he’s a rock-solid spot-up threat.
They love to leverage their athleticism in the open court — especially the uber-versatile, uber-talented point-forward Earl Timberlake — but they have been a brutally inefficient transition offense since the beginning of last year (1.01 PPP, 34th percentile).
They have actually been relatively better in half-court creation (.96 PPP, 73rd percentile), but the Bulldogs are never going to slow the game down.
St. John’s is also a transition-reliant offense, forcing turnovers to generate run-out buckets. The best way to beat the Johnnies is to slow them down.
Both teams are above-average at defending in transition from an efficiency standpoint, although the Johnnies are the far better transition-denial defense.
It's also worth mentioning that, given the inefficient nature of their offensive schemes, both squads rely heavily on crashing the boards and generating second-chance points. Both teams also struggle to clean the glass on defense.
So, returning to my original point, these are two very similar teams.
Both run aggressive iso-funneling defensive schemes that fiercely deny the rim. Both run up-tempo transition-reliant offenses. Both are comfortable running with pace because they are good at defending in transition. Neither team takes efficient shots because they can’t space the floor, so both rely heavily on second-chance buckets.
This game could devolve into a rock fight between two teams sprinting into crowded lanes, pulling up for clunky mid-range shots and crashing the glass for putbacks. I'd consider betting the under, but the pace should be insane.
Instead, I think the three-touchdown spread is a tad high.
Bryant should be comfortable playing the Red Storm's game, and the Bulldogs have no shortage of athleticism and length on the roster, so I don’t think they will be at a monstrous talent disadvantage.
Pinzon played for St. John’s just two years ago, Timberlake is a dominant two-way on-ball playmaker and the frontcourt is super mobile between Barry Evans and Keyshawn Mitchell.
While Bryant's 4-5 record against D-I competition doesn't inspire confidence, the Bulldogs profile as a team that can play up and down to competition.
For the Johnnies, taking lousy shots won't help them put Bryant away. If anything, their lack of execution might help the heavy 'dog hang around. An ugly game should favor the team catching a ton of points.
I'm unsure if St. John's is built to bash teams. The Johnnies beat KenPom No. 235 Quinnipiac by 23, KenPom No. 310 Wagner by 21 and KenPom No. 267 Harvard by 13 — three squads that aren't as athletically gifted as KenPom No. 179 Bryant.
Also, could the Johnnies be flat in this spot? They are coming off a win over Kansas State over the weekend and have Big East play on deck next week. Their home-court advantage likely won't be as strong, given that most of the fanbase is in the library studying for their finals that start Friday.
These teams are stylistically and athletically more even than the spread implies.
For what it's worth, no major projection system makes the Johnnies larger than a 20.5-point favorite, and our Action PRO Model projects the spread closer to 16.
