Every Saturday during the season, I'll share my favorite spots that I had circled (and are still in range for a bet). In addition to my raw projection, I'll focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
This week, I highlighted my five favorite spots on Saturday's slate.
For reference, I write these up on Friday evening. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list the price at which I'd play each game. You can also follow along on the Action App to see when I place them. From 2022-2024, I went 62-51-1 (54.9% + 6.46 units and this is my first piece of the 2025 campaign.
Texas Tech PK (-110) vs. Iowa State
2 p.m. ET | ESPN
I actually love this Iowa State team, and I'd probably have it in my Final Four if you asked me to pick four squads right at this moment.
The Clones are well-coached, experienced and added the necessary frontcourt scoring in the portal to address a major weakness on last season's squad. As a result, the Cyclones have improved from the 34th percentile in points per possession on post possessions to the 99th, per Synergy.
Curtis Jones is also the perfect player to come off the bench to provide a spark, and he can get red hot from 3 at any time.
With that said, this looks like a good spot to fade Iowa State after 10 straight wins ahead of a trip to Lubbock — one of the best home court advantages in big games in the country.
Texas Tech looks to finally be hitting its stride since getting JT Toppin back from injury. Most importantly, I think the Red Raiders match up fairly well.
Against Iowa State, you can't turn the ball over (Iowa State ranks No. 1 in points per possession off breakaway steals, per Haslametrics). Texas Tech checks that box (15.4% turnover rate), as long as Elijah Hawkins doesn't get too loose with the ball.
And against the no-middle defense, you must have the ability to can 3s, which the Red Raiders can certainly do. They're over 39% on the season (11th-best), with five or six capable options in that area.
Tech also thrives with cutting action (98th percentile efficiency), which is the one glaring statistical weakness of this Iowa State defense (3rd percentile). The Red Raiders can also do some damage on the offensive glass (15th nationally), which is a necessity against Iowa State.
On the other side of the ball, it's paramount to keep Iowa State out of transition (91st percentile in frequency with a 94th percentile efficiency) and away from the rim. Texas Tech excels in both areas.
I do worry about Iowa State's own ability on the offensive glass in this particular matchup, but I'm rolling with the Red Raiders, who aren't overly reliant on transition offense (can't be vs. Iowa State) and are more than capable of operating late in the shot clock under Grant McCasland, which will be necessary to pull this game out.
Pick: Texas Tech PK (Play to -1)
Kansas vs. Cincinnati Under 135.5 (-105)
2 p.m. ET | ESPN+
I had this spot circled for Cincinnati, but I needed a better price since I don't fancy the matchup for the Bearcats, who have lost three straight following a 10-1 start.
Both of these defenses force opposing offenses to beat them in the mid-range. Kansas ranks 334rd in mid-range attempt rate allowed, while Cincy ranks 331st.
In a game that could turn into a mid-range battle, that certainly favors the Jayhawks, who are much more adept in that department, ranking 25th in mid-range field goal percentage, while the Bearcats rank 324th.
Cincinnati also really limits 3-point attempts (14th in 3PA rate allowed), which doesn't really matter to Kansas all that much (314th in 3PA rate)
The Kansas offense remains a work in progress, but Bill Self seems to be figuring things out as he continues to tweak his rotation. AJ Storr has been an abject disaster and was even benched after logging just three minutes in their most recent outing.
I'd expect to see even more minutes for Rylan Griffen and stud freshman big man Flory Bidunga moving forward.
Regardless of the rotation, you must have an outstanding post defense against Hunter Dickinson and Bidunga, which Cincy does with 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo and Dillon Mitchell at the four.
On the season, Kansas ranks third in near-proximity field goal percentage, but things might not be as easy against Cincy's defense, which ranks 12th in that department, per Haslametrics. The Bearcats have the personnel to slow down Kansas' post-heavy attack (82nd percentile and 91st percentile efficiency) in the half-court.
You also must keep Kansas out of transition, where it's deadly once again under Bill Self (90th percentile efficiency, per Synergy). Well, Cincy excels at limiting transition opportunities (23rd percentile frequency) and defends them well when teams do get those rare chances to run (90th percentile efficiency).
While the Kansas offense is still figuring some things out, Cincy's offense is even less trustworthy at the moment. You can expect a lot of pick-and-roll (96th percentile frequency) with Jizzie James, which is a tall order against Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kansas (87th percentile defending pick-and-roll ball handlers, per Synergy).
The Kansas transition defense has actually been a bit vulnerable this year, but Cincinnati isn't looking to run all that much.
Additionally, the Bearcats dominate on the offensive glass (17th nationally), but Kansas is more than capable (17th nationally in DR%) of containing their prowess there. The Bearcats ultimately want to score at the rim, but that's not easy to do against the Jayhawks, especially with an inefficient post offense.
Lastly, I like the fact that we probably won't see a lot of trips to the free throw line, which can spell trouble for an under in this range. Both offenses rank in the bottom-25 nationally in free throw attempt rate, while both defenses don't commit a lot of silly fouls.
Give me the under in a battle of two nationally-elite defenses (both rank in the top-11 in overall adjusted efficiency, per KenPom). There are matchup advantages on that end of the floor in a game that should mainly be played in the half-court.
Pick: Under 135.5 (Play to 135)
Arkansas +5.5 (-110) vs. Florida
4 p.m. ET | ESPN
I don't love this Arkansas team and I fear the coaching advantage Florida will hold in this one, especially in terms of in-game adjustments.
However, I do think Arkansas is worth a look as a home pup of five or better in what shapes up to be a very good buy-low/sell-high spot. While Florida is flying high after its absolute rout of Tennessee, the Hogs will come into this game desperate for a league win following back-to-back losses to open up SEC play.
I do believe the Gators are true national title contenders thanks to an improved defense, but there are still some holes on that end of the floor. They dismantled Tennessee, but there's no doubt the Vols played their part in it by starting 1-of-26 from 3.
Meanwhile, Arkansas hasn't looked great in its two SEC losses, but it also shot a combined 11-of-52 (21.2%) from beyond the arc. Don't be surprised if the tables turn a bit from deep in this one.
The primary reason I'm comfortable buying the Razorbacks in this spot is I believe this game will be played at a faster pace in an up-and-down style.
That's what Arkansas needs to score. Per Synergy, Arkansas ranks in the 97th percentile in transition efficiency (with a 93rd percentile frequency), compared to just a 65th-percentile efficiency in the half-court.
In their first two SEC games, the Hogs faced Tennessee and Ole Miss, who are both nationally elite in terms of transition denial. Florida is also above average in that department, but nowhere near as dominant as the Vols and Rebels.
To me, this game will play out similar to Florida's two most recent road games against North Carolina (90-84 win) and Kentucky (106-100), which should suit Arkansas well.
In a track meet, I think the Hogs can keep up.
Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (Play to +5)
Stephen F. Austin +6 (-108) at Lamar
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
This is your hold your nose buy-low, sell-high spot of the day.
While Stephen F. Austin has started out 0-4 in league play, Lamar has raced out to a 4-0 start to sit atop the Southland standings, along with McNeese State.
Since the start of the season, Lamar has risen about 100 spots on KenPom, while SFA has dropped by approximately the same amount.
What's been the problem for the Lumberjacks? It's certainly not the defense, which is still rock solid. All of the blame goes to an absolutely putrid offense that ranks 357th in overall efficiency, per KenPom.
Just take a look at some of these national ranks out of 364 teams:
- Turnover rate: 363rd
- 3-point percentage: 364th
- Free throw percentage: 363rd
Yikes. And it's even worse in league play, where they've shot 13.6% from 3 through four games.
With that said, a shot has to eventually fall, right? I mean we have data on their roster that says they shouldn't be shooting this poorly from 3 or the charity stripe (where they get to frequently).
This might be the night they do it against a Lamar defense that's benefited from league opponents shooting just 21.7% from the perimeter through four games.
On offense, Lamar wants to run (88th percentile transition frequency), where it's very effective (85th percentile efficiency), but Stephen F. Austin has an elite transition defense (94th percentile).
That spells trouble for the Cardinals, who are completely inept offensively in the half-court (0.817 points per possession). Lamar basically tries to run its half-court offense through the post, which you can't do against the Lumberjacks.
I'm betting on this being the bottom for the Lumberjacks, who may actually benefit from getting out of town after two bad home losses.
And it's not like this is a long trip south in Texas.
Hopefully some shots finally fall and the Lumberjacks don't turn it over every other possession against the press (Lamar presses at a top-five rate).
Maybe I'm too slow to adjust SFA down and Lamar up, but I still don't show a material gap between these teams.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin +6
Boise State +6 at Utah State
9 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
You have to be impressed with what head coach Jerrod Calhoun has done in his first season at the helm in Logan after coming over from Youngstown State.
However, I'm banking on this being the top of the market for Utah State after a strong 15-1 start to the 2024-25 campaign.
It's not like the Aggies have been blowing everybody out on a nightly basis, with nine wins by eight points or less, plus a home loss to UC San Diego (who I do really like).
Just take a look at their five victories in Mountain West play:
- W by 3 vs. Wyoming
- W by 1 at San Diego State
- W by 5 at Nevada
- W by 6 vs. Fresno State
- W by 7 at San Jose State
Utah State does look a lot different under Calhoun, as you're going to see a ton of zone defense.
In fact, only five teams have played zone more often than the Aggies (71.8%):
- Merrimack (91.9%)
- South Alabama (91.4%)
- VMI (91.0%)
- Oakland (81.7%)
- Tulane (75.3%)
Boise State's zone offense numbers are okay, but it really only saw zone against Oakland and Utah Tech, so it's hard to read much into those.
However, this could be a big day for Tyson Degenhart (who I'm sure has had this spot circled after four straight losses to the Aggies) and look out for Pearson "Peanut" Carmichael, who made his season debut last game after Leon Rice decided to burn his redshirt.
The two-time Oregon player of the year brings some much-needed potential outside shooting to a Boise State team that's been dreadful from the outside (309th in 3P%). He'll likely get plenty of looks from the perimeter against the zone.
Overall, Boise likely has some positive 3-point regression coming its way anyway in league play after Mountain West opponents have connected on over 40% of their attempts from deep. The Broncos sit below 29%.
Both rank dead last in the conference.
And while Boise doesn't project as a great shooting team by any stretch, all of its primary rotation players are shooting well below their career averages from distance.
When on offense, Utah State wants to get out in transition, but Boise State excels at limiting those opportunities (12th percentile). Opponents must limit the Aggies at the rim, where they want to get to as much as humanly possible (2nd in Near Proximity Attempt Rate). But that won't be easy in this particular matchup.
The Aggies also do a ton of damage on the offensive glass (top-25 in OR% and second-chance points per possession), but Boise State is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking seventh and 37th in those two respective categories.
Speaking of second-chance points, Boise State should have plenty of opportunities to do damage on the offensive glass (top-50 OR%) against the zone.
That alone could be enough to keep Boise in this game for 40 minutes — even if the perimeter shots aren't falling — since I do think the Broncos can make life difficult for Utah State in the half-court.
Ultimately, I just don't think there's much — if any — separating these two teams, and I like the matchup and spot.
My only primary concern is the turnovers on both ends.
Pick: Boise State +6 (Play to +5.5)
