The Princeton Tigers take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Newark, NJ. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
Rutgers is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of 152. The total is set at -250 points.
Here are my Princeton vs. Rutgers predictions and college basketball picks for December 21, 2024.
Princeton vs Rutgers Prediction
My Pick: Rutgers -4.5 (Play to -7)
My Princeton vs Rutgers best bet is on the Scarlet Knights spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Princeton vs Rutgers Odds
| Princeton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 152 -110 / -110 | +205 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -112 | 152 -110 / -110 | -250 |
- Princeton vs Rutgers spread: Rutgers -5.5
- Princeton vs Rutgers over/under: 152 points
- Princeton vs Rutgers moneyline: Rutgers -250, Princeton +205
- Princeton vs Rutgers best bet: Rutgers -4.5 (Play to -7)
Spread
I like Rutgers on the spread up to 7.
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Rutgers -4.5 (Play to -7)
Princeton vs Rutgers College Basketball Betting Preview
Princeton Basketball
Just a season ago, Princeton beat Rutgers on a neutral court. The two teams have trended in different directions in the past 12 months, though, as Rutgers introduced a pair of five-star recruits into the program.
Conversely, Princeton has failed to live up to its lofty preseason expectations.
That would change a bit with a win here.
But what has gone wrong for the Tigers?
They are a relatively mediocre defensive squad, so they need to be elite on the offensive end. Ranking just 84th in offensive efficiency won't get the job done.
The difference is pretty clear: Princeton had the 14th-best 2-point field goal percentage last year (56%), but it has shot just 51% this year, which ranks 184th nationally.
If Princeton doesn't shoot it well from 3, then it will probably be a rough offensive night — since it can't rely on scoring at the rim.
Last season, forward Caden Pierce averaged over 16 points per game, mostly off buckets from 2. This season, he's averaging 11.8 points a night. Pierce won Ivy League Player of the Year, but now Xaivian Lee is far and away the best Princeton player.
In theory, that's not a bad thing — since Lee is an incredible talent with his crafty scoring — but Princeton's upside hinged upon Pierce and Lee combining close to 35 points per game. Instead, the two combine for about 26 points a night.
Pierce needs to find his footing that earned him conference Player of the Year.
The potential missing link is Matt Allocco, who transferred to Notre Dame. The 6-foot-5 guard provided a little more perimeter length and shot over 50% from the field.
Replacing Allocco is an extreme talent in Dalen Davis, but his 38% shooting percentage is a far cry from Allocco's efficiency.
Rutgers Basketball
The Scarlet Knights have arguably the most star power in college hoops, with dazzling point guard Dylan Harper and versatile forward Ace Bailey. Rutgers enters play at 7-4, with a pair of nail-biting wins over Penn State and Seton Hall in the past two games.
Harper is one of the top players in America — full stop. The incredibly gifted southpaw is the nation's third-leading scorer at 23.3 points per game, while shooting 52% from the field with 4.4 assists.
How does Princeton contain Harper? The Tigers don't have the weapons to keep Harper out of the lane. His ability to use his size and score at the rim is his best asset, and Lee is giving up two inches and 30 pounds defensively.
Moreover, the biggest struggle plaguing the Scarlet Knights is getting stops. They rank just 103rd in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot 50% on 2s and 33% on 3s.
Although neither figure is terrible, Steve Pikiell has gotten the Rutgers program back on track using defense, so I'd imagine he would like to shore things up on that end.
The more pressing issue is rebounding, which was a problem the second Clifford Omoruyi hit the portal. The Scarlet Knights rank outside the top 200 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, but Princeton seldom crashes the offensive glass.
That bodes well for Rutgers, since teams like Houston and Alabama punished it on the glass. Princeton won't be able to do that.
While Princeton doesn't have the duo people hoped for, Rutgers is getting the exact production it imagined from Harper and Bailey, who combine for over 40 points a game. The two stars are probably enough for Rutgers to cover against Princeton, but getting something from Jordan Derkack, Zach Martini or Jeremiah Williams can't hurt.
Plus, it's a "revenge" game for Martini, who spent four years at Princeton. I'm sure he knows the proper way to get to this Princeton team.
Princeton vs. Rutgers Betting Analysis
I still think Princeton is a bit overvalued due to preseason expectations. KenPom has the Tigers at No. 114, down from 74th in his initial rankings.
Conversely, Bart Torvik — without preseason bias integrated — has Princeton at 160th, which feels closer to reality.
Rutgers sits at No. 87 in Bart Torvik without preseason numbers baked in, so it's a near 80-spot gap between the two, compared to around 40 spots on KenPom.
If an 80-spot difference were present on KenPom, then Rutgers is probably a 7-8 point favorite.
I like Rutgers and the two stud youngsters.
